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The intensity of use of a mineral is traditionally defined as the consumption (production plus net imports) of the mineral divided by gross national product. It has been proposed that this ratio of raw material input to gross economic output is a predictable function of per capita income and that the relationship is based on economic theory. Though the theory has never been clearly defined, the intensity of use method has been used to make long term forecasts. This dissertation formulates a theoretical model of the consumption of minerals and the resulting intensity of use which is used to test the validity of the traditional intensity of use measure and its forecasting ability. Previous justifications of the intensity of use hypothesis state that changes in technical efficiency, substitution rates among inputs, and demands are explained by per capita income, which, as it grows, produces a regular intensity of use pattern. The model developed in this research shows that the life of the goods in use, foreign trade of raw and final goods, prices, consumer preferences, technical innovations, as well as the above factors fully explain economic use, which is not simply a function of per capita income. The complete model is used to restate the traditional theory of intensity of use and to examine the sensitivity of traditional measures to changes in the explanatory variables which are commonly omitted. The full model demonstrates the parameters that must be examined when making a long term forecast. Regular intensity of use patterns are observed for many minerals in many nations. Setting aside the theoretical questions, the intensity of use method is often used to make long term projections based on these trends in intensity of use as well as the trends in population and gross national product. This dissertation examines the forecasting ability of the traditional intensity of use method and finds that it is not necessarily an improvement over naive consumption time trend forecasts. Furthermore, it is unstable for very long term projections.

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M.Com. (Mining Economics) / This study indicated that price cyclicity in commodity markets is caused by various factors, and that this in itself can cause certain short and long term effects for mineral producers. One short term effect of price cyclicity is its potential influence on the stockpiling activities of mineral producers. Data on the activities of the producers of 24 mineral products in South Africa during the period 1980 - 1985 were analysed to quantify the potential influences. The only mineral products that show a significant inverse relationship between export prices and stockpiling in real terms, are diamonds and antimony. In both instances producers tend to stockpile if the price of the product declines, and to sell stocks if the price increases. This tendency is probably related to the relatively dominant position in the production and marketing of minerals that South African producers of these mineral products have achieved in the world market. Due to the confidentiality of statistics, the data of other dominant producers, for example the South African platinum producers, could not be included in the analysis. With the possible exception of the dominant producers, speculative stockpiling by South African producers is the exception rather than the rule...

Dissertation submitted to the University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management in partial fulfilment of the requirement of the degree of MASTER OF COMMERCE IN DEVELOPMENT THEORY AND POLICY University of the Witwatersrand Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management School of Economics and Business Sciences – SEBS Corporate Strategy and Industrial Development (CSID) / Zimbabwe’s mineral sector has been the major contributor of the national economy’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since the economic meltdown post land reform programme. The scale of the crisis resulted in the adoption of the multicurrency system in 2009. In an attempt to save the economy from total collapse the government has turned to the mining sector to establish linkages through mineral beneficiation. This study has analysed whether the creation of linkages in the mineral sector, through beneficiation and value addition, could resuscitate the economy. Literature on natural resources shows that countries that are resource-rich experience slow growth rates than resource-poor countries. The study found that mineral resource dependency could be a platform or foundation for economic growth and developmental opportunities through linkages creation in the mineral sector. However, resource-based development strategy is a challenging development path that needs a strong state with vested capacity to actively direct and co-ordinate economic transformation through deepening of the resource sector. Political tensions in Zimbabwe are the overriding obstacles to economic linkages creation in the mining sector and across other sectors. It is therefore, imperative to understand the socio-economic and political dynamics and interactions that influence and shape policy decisions, implementation and their outcomes in order for Zimbabwe to optimise economic linkages and revive its economy. / MT2017

PhD, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, 1999