Growth mixture modeling (GMM) is a useful tool for examining both between- and within-persons change over time and uncovering unobserved heterogeneity in growth trajectories. Importantly, the correct extraction of latent classes and parameter recovery can be dependent upon the type of covariates used. Time-varying covariates (TVCs) can influence class membership but are scarcely included in GMMs as predictors. Other times, TVCs are incorrectly modeled as time-invariant covariates (TICs). Additionally, problematic results can occur with the use of maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in GMMs, including convergence issues and sub-optimal maxima. In such cases, Bayesian estimation may prove to be a useful solution. The present Monte Carlo simulation study aimed to assess class enumeration accuracy and parameter recovery of GMMs with a TVC, particularly when a TVC has been incorrectly specified as a TIC. Both ML estimation and Bayesian estimation were examined. Results indicated that class enumeration indices perform less favorably in the case of TVC misspecification, particularly absolute class enumeration indices. Additionally, in the case of TVC misspecification, parameter bias was found to be greater than the generally accepted cutoff of 10%, particularly for variance estimates. It is recommended that researchers continue to use a variety of class enumeration indices during class enumeration, particularly relative indices. Additionally, researchers should take caution when interpreting variance parameter estimates when the GMM contains a misspecified TVC.

The purpose of this project is to develop a statistical method for use in rapid detection of biological agents using portable gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC/MS) devices. Of particular interest is 2,6-pyridinedicarboxylic acid (dipicolinic acid, or DPA), a molecule that is present at high concentrations in spores of Clostridium and Bacillus, the latter of which includes the threat organism Bacillus anthracis, or anthrax. Dipicolinic acid may be useful as a first-step discriminator of the biological warfare agent B. anthracis. The results of experiments with B. anthracis Sterne strain and Bacillus thuringiensis spores lead to a conceptual model for the chemical phenomena that are believed to occur between Calcium, DPA and its esters, water, acid, and alkali during treatment of spores by a novel analytical procedure. The hypothesized model for chemical phenomena is tested using a compound study in the form of a mixture experiment.

The Gaussian mixture model has been used for model-based clustering analysis for decades. Most model-based clustering analyses are based on the Gaussian mixture model. Model averaging approaches for Gaussian mixture models are proposed by Wei and McNicholas, based on a family of 14 Gaussian parsimonious clustering models. In this thesis, we use non-Gaussian mixture models, namely the tEigen family, for our averaging approaches. This paper studies fitting in an averaged model from a set of multivariate t-mixture models instead of fitting a best model. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

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We propose the generalized linear mixed model for finite normal mixtures (GLMFM), as well as the estimation procedures for the GLMFM model, which are widely applicable to the hierarchical dataset with small number of individual units and multi-modal distributions at the lowest level of clustering. The modeling task is two-fold: (a). to model the lowest level cluster as a finite mixtures of the normal distribution; and (b). to model the properly transformed mixture proportions, means and standard deviations of the lowest-level cluster as a linear hierarchical structure. We propose the robust generalized weighted likelihood estimators and the new cubic-inverse weight for the estimation of the finite mixture model (Zhan et al., 2011). We propose two robust methods for estimating the GLMFM model, which accommodate the contaminations on all clustering levels, the standard-two-stage approach (Chervoneva et al., 2011, co-authored) and a robust joint estimation. Our research was motivated by the data obtained from the tendon fibril experiment reported in Zhang et al. (2006). Our statistical methodology is quite general and has potential application in a variety of relatively complex statistical modeling situations. / Statistics

<p> A mixture distribution is a compounding of statistical distributions, which arises when sampling from heterogeneous populations with a different probability density function in each component. A finite mixture has a finite number of components. In the past decade the extent and the potential of the applications of finite mixture models have widened considerably.</p> <p> The objective of this project is to add some functionalities to a package 'mixdist' developed by Du and Macdonald (Du 2002) and Gao (2004) in the R environment (R Development Core Team 2004) for estimating the parameters of a finite mixture distribution with data grouped in bins and conditional data. Mixed data together with conditional data will provide better estimates of parameters than do mixed data alone. Our main objective is to obtain the optimal sample size for each bin of the mixed data to obtain conditional data, given approximate values of parameters and the distributional form of the mixture for the given data. We have also replaced the dependence of the function mix upon the optimizer nlm to optimizer optim to provide the limits to the parameters.</p> <p> Our purpose is to provide easily available tools to modeling fish growth using mixture distribution. However, it has a number of applications in other areas as well.</p> / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

There is a need for the development of models that are able to account for discreteness in data, along with its time series properties and correlation. A review of the application of thinning operators to adapt the ARMA recursion to the integer-valued case is first discussed. A class of integer-valued ARMA (INARMA) models arises from this application. Our focus falls on INteger-valued AutoRegressive (INAR) type models. The INAR type models can be used in conjunction with existing model-based clustering techniques to cluster discrete valued time series data. This approach is then illustrated with the addition of autocorrelations. With the use of a finite mixture model, several existing techniques such as the selection of the number of clusters, estimation using expectation-maximization and model selection are applicable. The proposed model is then demonstrated on real data to illustrate its clustering applications. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

Matrix variate distributions present a innate way to model random matrices. Realiza- tions of random matrices are created by concurrently observing variables in different locations or at different time points. We use a finite mixture model composed of matrix variate normal densities to cluster matrix variate data. The matrix variate data was generated by accelerometers worn by children in a clinical study conducted at McMaster. Their acceleration along the three planes of motion over the course of seven days, forms their matrix variate data. We use the resulting clusters to verify existing group membership labels derived from a test of motor-skills proficiency used to assess the children’s locomotion. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)