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Mitigating cotton revenue risk through irrigation, insurance, and/or hedgingBise, Elizabeth Hart 15 May 2009 (has links)
Texas is the leading U.S. producer of cotton, and the U.S. is the largest international
market supplier of cotton. Risks and uncertainties plague Texas cotton producers with
unpredictable weather, insects, diseases, and price variability. Risk management studies
have examined the risk reducing capabilities of alternative management strategies, but
few have looked at the interaction of using several strategies in different combinations.
The research in this study focuses on managing risk faced by cotton farmers in Texas
using irrigation, put options, and yield insurance. The primary objective was to analyze
the interactions of irrigation, put options, and yield insurance as risk management
strategies on the economic viability of a 1,000 acre cotton farm in the Lower Rio Grande
Valley (LRGV) of Texas. The secondary objective was to determine the best
combination of these strategies for decision makers with alternative preferences for risk
aversion.
Stochastic values for yields and prices were used in simulating a whole-farm
financial statement for a 1000 acre furrow irrigated cotton farm in the LRGV with three
types of risk management strategies. Net returns were simulated using a multivariate empirical distribution for 16 risk management scenarios. The scenarios were ranked
across a range of risk aversion levels using stochastic efficiency with respect to a
function.
Analyses for risk averse decision makers showed that multiple irrigations are
preferred, and that yield insurance is strongly preferred at lower irrigation levels. The
benefits to purchasing put options increase with yields, so they are more beneficial when
higher yields are expected from applying more irrigation applications.
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Least squares estimation for binary decision treesAlbrecht, Nadine 14 December 2020 (has links)
In this thesis, a binary decision tree is used as an approximation of a nonparametric regression curve. The best fitted decision tree is estimated from data via least squares method. It is investigated how and under which conditions the estimator converges.
These asymptotic results then are used to create asymptotic convergence regions.
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Power Studies of Multivariate Two-Sample Tests of ComparisonSiluyele, Ian John January 2007 (has links)
Masters of Science / The multivariate two-sample tests provide a means to test the match between two multivariate distributions. Although many tests exist in the literature, relatively little is known about the relative power of these procedures. The studies reported in the thesis contrasts the effectiveness, in terms of power, of seven such tests with a Monte Carlo study. The relative power of the tests was investigated against location, scale, and correlation alternatives. Samples were drawn from bivariate exponential, normal and uniform populations. Results
from the power studies show that there is no single test which is the most powerful in all situations. The use of particular test statistics is recommended for specific alternatives. A possible supplementary non-parametric graphical procedure, such as the Depth-Depth plot, can be recommended for diagnosing possible differences between the multivariate samples, if the null hypothesis is rejected. As an example of the utility of the procedures for real data, the multivariate two-sample tests were applied to photometric data of twenty galactic globular
clusters. The results from the analyses support the recommendations associated with specific test statistics.
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