This thesis describes the search for a temporal model for predicting the peak ionospheric electron density-(foF2). Existing models, such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) and 8KYCOM, were used to predict the 12 noon foF2 value over Grahamstown (26°E, 33°8). An attempt was then made to find a model that would improve upon these results. The traditional method of linear regression was used as a first step towards a new model. It was found that this would involve a multi variable regression that is reliant on guessing the optimum variables to be used in the final equation. An extremely complicated modelling equation involving many terms would result. Neural networks (NNs) are introduced as a new technique for predicting foF2. They are also applied, for the first time, to the problem of determining the best predictors of foF2. This quantity depends upon day number, level of solar activity and level of magnetic activity. The optimum averaging lengths of the solar activity index and the magnetic activity index were determined by appling NNs, using the criterion that the best indices are those that give the lowest rms error between the measured and predicted foF2. The optimum index for solar activity was found to be a 2-month running mean value of the daily sunspot number and for magnetic activity a 2-day averaged A index was found to be optimum. In addition, it was found that the response of foF2 to magnetic activity changes is highly non-linear and seasonally dependent. Using these indices as inputs, the NN trained successfully to predict foF2 with an rms error of 0.946 MHz on the daily testing values. Comparison with the IRI showed an improvement of 40% on the rms error. It is also shown that the NN will predict the noon value of foF2 to the same level of accuracy for unseen data of the same type.

M.Ing. (Electrical And Electronic Engineering) / This dissertation describes the development of a system of Artificial Neural Networks that enables the incremental training of feed forward neural networks using supervised training algorithms such as back propagation. It is argued that incremental learning is fundamental to the adaptive learning behavior observed in human intelligence and constitutes an imperative step towards artificial cognition. The importance of developing incremental learning as a system of ANNs is stressed before the complete system is presented. Details of the development and implementation of the system is complemented by the description of two case studies. In conclusion the role of the incremental learning system as basis for further development of fundamental elements of cognition is projected.

M.Ing. (Mechanical Engineering) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

M.Ing. (Mechanical Engineering) / This thesis involves the development of a Neural Network software package within a Windows environment. This package is called NetPro. It contains most of the standard tools used in existing neural network packages e.g. shuffling of facts, automatic test file facts extraction, randomizing of weights values (before and during training), automatic/manual construction of network files, logging of network properties during training, noise can be added to inputs, etc. NetPro has three additional tools: (a) time delay actions on inputs, (b) a neural network calculator, and (c) automatic saving of the best network during training. The calculator is used to calculate the number of training facts needed for optimum generalization ...

In the domain of strategic game playing, the use of statistical techniques such as the Upper Confidence for Trees (UCT) algorithm, has become the norm as they offer many benefits over classical algorithms. These benefits include requiring no game-specific strategic knowledge and time-scalable performance. UCT does not incorporate any strategic information specific to the game considered, but instead uses repeated sampling to effectively brute-force search through the game tree or search space. The lack of game-specific knowledge in UCT is thus both a benefit but also a strategic disadvantage. Pattern recognition techniques, specifically Neural Networks (NN), were identified as a means of addressing the lack of game-specific knowledge in UCT. Through a novel hybridisation technique which combines UCT and trained NNs for pruning, the UCTNN algorithm was derived. The NN component of UCT-NN was trained using a UCT self-play scheme to generate game-specific knowledge without the need to construct and manage game databases for training purposes. The UCT-NN algorithm is outlined for pruning in the game of Go-Moku as a candidate case-study for this research. The UCT-NN algorithm contained three major parameters which emerged from the UCT algorithm, the use of NNs and the pruning schemes considered. Suitable methods for finding candidate values for these three parameters were outlined and applied to the game of Go-Moku on a 5 by 5 board. An empirical investigation of the playing performance of UCT-NN was conducted in comparison to UCT through three benchmarks. The benchmarks comprise a common randomly moving opponent, a common UCTmax player which is given a large amount of playing time, and a pair-wise tournament between UCT-NN and UCT. The results of the performance evaluation for 5 by 5 Go-Moku were promising, which prompted an evaluation of a larger 9 by 9 Go-Moku board. The results of both evaluations indicate that the time allocated to the UCT-NN algorithm directly affects its performance when compared to UCT. The UCT-NN algorithm generally performs better than UCT in games with very limited time-constraints in all benchmarks considered except when playing against a randomly moving player in 9 by 9 Go-Moku. In real-time and near-real-time Go-Moku games, UCT-NN provides statistically significant improvements compared to UCT. The findings of this research contribute to the realisation of applying game-specific knowledge to the UCT algorithm.

Modern neural network (NN) based control schemes have surmounted many of the limitations found in the traditional control approaches. Nevertheless, these modern control techniques have only recently been introduced for use on high-specification Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) and usually at a very high cost in terms of the required software and hardware. This ‗intelligent‘ control in the sector of industrial automation, specifically on standard PLCs thus remains an area of study that is open to further research and development. The research documented in this thesis examined the effectiveness of linear traditional control schemes such as Proportional Integral Derivative (PID), Lead and Lead-Lag control, in comparison to non-linear NN based control schemes when applied on a strongly non-linear platform. To this end, a mechatronic-type balancing system, namely, the Ball-on-Wheel (BOW) system was designed, constructed and modelled. Thereafter various traditional and intelligent controllers were implemented in order to control the system. The BOW platform may be taken to represent any single-input, single-output (SISO) non-linear system in use in the real world. The system makes use of current industrial technology including a standard PLC as the digital computational platform, a servo drive and wireless access for remote control. The results gathered from the research revealed that NN based control schemes (i.e. Pure NN and NN-PID), although comparatively slower in response, have greater advantages over traditional controllers in that they are able to adapt to external system changes as well as system non-linearity through a process of learning. These controllers also reduce the guess work that is usually involved with the traditional control approaches where cumbersome modelling, linearization or manual tuning is required. Furthermore, the research showed that online-learning adaptive traditional controllers such as the NN-PID controller which maintains the best of both the intelligent and traditional controllers may be implemented easily and with minimum expense on standard PLCs.

A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, 2017 / The utility of lectures is directly related to the engagement of the students therein. To ensure the value of lectures, one needs to be certain that they are engaging to students. In small classes experienced lecturers develop an intuition of how engaged the class is as a whole and can then react appropriately to remedy the situation through various strategies such as breaks or changes in style, pace and content. As both the number of students and size of the venue grow, this type of contingent teaching becomes increasingly difficult and less precise. Furthermore, relying on intuition alone gives no way to recall and analyse previous classes or to objectively investigate trends over time. To address these problems this thesis presents the WITS INTELLIGENT TEACHING SYSTEM (WITS) to highlight disengaged students during class. A web-based, mobile application called Engage was developed to try elicit anonymous engagement information directly from students. The majority of students were unwilling or unable to self-report their engagement levels during class. This stems from a number of cultural and practical issues related to social display rules, unreliable internet connections, data costs, and distractions. This result highlights the need for a non-intrusive system that does not require the active participation of students. A nonintrusive, computer vision and machine learning based approach is therefore proposed. To support the development thereof, a labelled video dataset of students was built by recording a number of first year lectures. Students were labelled across a number of affects – including boredom, frustration, confusion, and fatigue – but poor inter-rater reliability meant that these labels could not be used as ground truth. Based on manual coding methods identified in the literature, a number of actions, gestures, and postures were identified as proxies of behavioural engagement. These proxies are then used in an observational checklist to mark students as engaged or not. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) was trained on Histograms of Oriented Gradients (HOG) to classify the students based on the identified behaviours. The results suggest a high temporal correlation of a single subject’s video frames. This leads to extremely high accuracies on seen subjects. However, this approach generalised poorly to unseen subjects and more careful feature engineering is required. The use of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) improved the classification accuracy substantially, both over a single subject and when generalising to unseen subjects. While more computationally expensive than the SVM, the CNN approach lends itself to parallelism using Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). With GPU hardware acceleration, the system is able to run in near real-time and with further optimisations a real-time classifier is feasible. The classifier provides engagement values, which can be displayed to the lecturer live during class. This information is displayed as an Interest Map which highlights spatial areas of disengagement. The lecturer can then make informed decisions about how to progress with the class, what teaching styles to employ, and on which students to focus. An Interest Map was presented to lecturers and professors at the University of the Witwatersrand yielding 131 responses. The vast majority of respondents indicated that they would like to receive live engagement feedback during class, that they found the Interest Map an intuitive visualisation tool, and that they would be interested in using such technology. Contributions of this thesis include the development of a labelled video dataset; the development of a web based system to allow students to self-report engagement; the development of cross-platform, open-source software for spatial, action and affect labelling; the application of Histogram of Oriented Gradient based Support Vector Machines, and Deep Convolutional Neural Networks to classify this data; the development of an Interest Map to intuitively display engagement information to presenters; and finally an analysis of acceptance of such a system by educators. / XL2017

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, Johannesburg, 30 March 2018. / Accuracy of the load forecasts is very critical in the power system industry, which is the lifeblood of the global economy to such an extent that its art-of-the-state management is the focus of the Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) models. In the past few years, South Africa faced an unprecedented energy management crisis that could be addressed in advance, inter alia, by carefully forecasting the expected load demand. Moreover, inaccurate or erroneous forecasts may result in either costly over-scheduling or adventurous under-scheduling of energy that may induce heavy economic forfeits to power companies. Therefore, accurate and reliable models are critically needed. Traditional statistical methods have been used in STLF but they have limited capacity to address nonlinearity and non-stationarity of electric loads. Also, such traditional methods cannot adapt to abrupt weather changes, thus they failed to produce reliable load forecasts in many situations. In this research report, we built a STLF model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to address the accuracy problem in this field so as to assist energy management decisions makers to run efficiently and economically their daily operations. ANNs are a mathematical tool that imitate the biological neural network and produces very accurate outputs. The built model is based on the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), which is a class of feedforward ANNs using the backpropagation (BP) algorithm as its training algorithm, to produce accurate hourly load forecasts. We compared the MLP built model to a benchmark Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model using data from Eskom, a South African public utility. Results showed that the MLP model, with percentage error of 0.50%, in terms of the MAPE, outperformed the SARIMAX with 1.90% error performance. / LG2018

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published_or_final_version / Electrical and Electronic Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy