Crime and violence are central issues for citizens in new democracies, many of which are increasingly threatened by organized crime and “brown areas” of lawlessness. The impact of crime concerns on vote choice, however, has been largely overlooked in the existing literature on voting behavior, which has centered on the role of partisanship, clientelistic linkages, or economic voting in explaining electoral outcomes. In this paper, I argue that crime voting explains much of vote choice in high crime new democracies. Using Mexico as a representative case of a new democracy facing rising violence, I find that crime considerations significantly affect vote choice in the country’s recent presidential elections. In 2006, crime views had up to five times the effect on vote choice as economic considerations. In 2012, despite stronger partisanship, clientelism, and economic effects, and a dearth of candidate attention to the issue, crime perceptions remained a significant predictor of vote choice. This finding suggests crime matters to vote choice and should be incorporated into models of voting behavior in violence-plagued new democracies. / text

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2006. / The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on April 27, 2009) Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Toronto, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references.

My dissertation examines how political institutions -- such as dual mandates, committee systems, and political associations -- impact the level and timing of party consolidation in a new democracy, as well as incentivize the behavior of elite politicians. I explore this through an intensive, data-driven analysis of the French Third Republic (1870-1940), during its formative years of its democratization. I trace the evolution of French political development across three papers. I first begin in the electorate, by looking at how a lack of ``bottom-up" electoral pressures slowed early political competition in France, and use an exogenous shock to population to demonstrate how urbanization affected local races and the creation of the first political associations in 1901. I then link the electorate with the legislature by examining how an institution meant to connect local and national politics -- cumul des mandats, or the ability to hold two offices -- had a negative effect on party development. Finally, I look at how the legislative organization of the committee system affected the career trajectories of politicians, in the absence of party institutions. In sum, this research contributes to a growing microfoundations literature that argues the geographic distribution of voters and the incentives of political elites are crucial but understudied factors in key episodes of early institution building in new democracies.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of North Texas, Aug., 2007. / Title from title page display. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2007. / Title from first page of PDF file. Includes bibliographical references (p. 226-236).

This thesis seeks to explain how democracies emerge out of the ashes of civil wars. This paper envisions transitions to democracy after a civil war largely as a function of the peace process. Democracy is thought of as a medium through which solutions to the problems and issues over which the civil war was fought can be solved without violence. Transitions to democracy are more likely if there is a large bargaining space and the problems of credible commitments to democratization can be solved. Democratization is more likely if four conditions exist in a state after the civil war: a negotiated settlement, credible commitments via international enforcement, demobilization, and a cooperative international environment. The hypotheses derived are tested through an event history analysis for two different standards of democracy. The results suggest that factors indicative of all four theoretical concepts contribute to the likelihood of democratization after a civil war.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Northeastern University, 2008. / Title from title page (viewed March 26, 2009). Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Political Science. Includes bibliographical references (p. 541-552).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2010. / Title from first page of PDF file (viewed February 19, 2010). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 193-206).

Cette thèse porte sur le déclin de la participation électorale dans les dix démocraties post­communistes qui ont intégré l’Union européenne en 2004 et 2007. Ces pays ont connu la plus forte baisse de participation électorale observée en régimes démocratiques depuis la Deuxième Guerre mondiale. Afin de comprendre ce phénomène, la thèse adopte une approche qui est à la fois systématique, théorisée, quantitative et comparative. Elle est structurée autour d’un nouveau schéma directeur conceptuel pour l’étude de la participation électorale au niveau agrégé. Ce cadre théorique distingue quatre types de facteurs qui affectent la participation en fonction de la nature et la temporalité de leurs effets. Le rôle de chaque type dans le déclin post­communiste est théorisé et considéré l’un après l’autre. Les sections empiriques emploient des méthodes quantitatives et une comparaison à l’intérieur des dix pays mais également avec d’autres démocraties établies ou nouvelles. Elles analysent plusieurs bases de données originales, dont la principale contient pratiquement toutes les élections législatives intervenues dans le monde démocratique entre 1939 et 2010. Les résultats remettent en cause l’idée selon laquelle le déclin participatif est principalement dû à un désenchantement démocratique. Ils montrent qu’au moins six autres facteurs causaux y contribuent. Ils tiennent aux contextes de démocratisation, aux changements institutionnels et aux évolutions dans la composition des électorats. La magnitude exceptionnelle du phénomène étudié est, ainsi, le produit d’une multiplicité des causes. / This dissertation studies the puzzling decline of voter turnout in ten post­communist democracies that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007. These countries experienced the most spectacular erosion of electoral participation in democratic regimes since World War Two. To solve this puzzle, my dissertation follows a systematic, theory­based, quantitative and comparative approach. It is structured by a newly­conceived master conceptual scheme for the study of aggregated voter turnout. This theoretical framework distinguishes between four types of turnout drivers based on the nature and temporality of their effects. The role of each type in the post­communist decline is theorised and considered in turn. The empirical sections employ several types of quantitative methods and intra­ but also inter­regional comparisons with established and other new democracies. They draw on several original datasets, the most important of which comprises the quasi­totality of democratic legislative elections held around the globe between 1939 and 2010. The results question the conventional wisdom that the post­communist turnout decline is mostly due to citizens’ dissatisfaction. Instead, they show that it is driven by no less than six other causes that relate to democratisation, institutional change and shifts in the composition of the electorate. It is the multiplicity of causal factors that explains the unparalleled startling magnitude by which voting rates decreased in the ten countries at hand. Besides solving the central puzzle, this dissertation yields a number of new middle­range theories and insights that pertain to electoral participation in both new and established democracies.