The purpose of this thesis is to examine the very significant problem of State bank nonperforming loan (NPL) in China. NPLs undermine the stability of China's banking system and the efficient operation of its markets. This thesis will make recommendations for developing better workout procedures to deal with existing NPLs and explore the role of banking regulation and supervision in NPL prevention, as well as in avoiding impacts of NPLs on the stability of banking system, drawing on experiences at national, regional and international levels. The accumulation of NPLs in China has been caused by the dominant role of State banks in China's financial markets, policy loans to state owned enterprises (SOEs), unnecessary administrative controls on banks' lending activities, weak internal controls within State banks and inappropriate banking regulation and supervision. All these have seriously ruined the conditions of market discipline in China and resulted not only in large amount of NPL stock, but also the constant creation of new NPLs on State banks' balance sheets. The NPL problem in China is not limited to individual banks. It is a systemic problem closely connected to the SOE problem. The existing bank NPLs cannot be worked out without debt and enterprise restructuring. The balance sheets of banks and firms must be cleaned up by, first, recapitalizing banks to write off and make provision for existing NPLs, and, second, setting up independent asset management companies to purchase and manage bank NPLs. To prevent the increasing accumulation of new NPLs, unnecessary administrative controls on banks must be removed; prudential banking regulation and supervision much be enhanced; appropriate internal control systems must be promoted within banks, especially with regard to the proper risk evaluation systems and internal decision-taking structures. To avoid the damaging impacts of NPL problem on the stability of the banking system, ' an explicit limited deposit insurance system should be introduced; the central bank's lender of last resort facilities must be properly defined; bank insolvency resolution mechanisms must be put in place. In a word, the proper functioning of market discipline must be restored in China.

Since there are no limits on the number of non-performing asset management companies imposed by the Financial Firms Merger and Acquisition Act of 2000, total numbers of such companies has been increasing in resent years. Under the circumstances of keen competition and shrinking market, non-performing asset management companies are facing enormous challenges. For this study, experts were interviewed and literatures were reviewed, resulting in a key factor structure of Taiwan¡¦s non-performing asset management companies. Quantified data are gathered and analyzed via questionnaires and AHP methods, and the most important key factors applicable for Taiwan¡¦s non-performing asset management companies are derived. To the large-scale AMCs, the most important key factors are: impact from the overall economic or real estate market condition, assisting corporations in restructuring, employees¡¦ past job experiences, and the accurate estimation for investment return. To the medium-scale AMCs, the most important key factors are: employees¡¦ past job experiences, and bidding in conjunction with large-scale AMCs or foreign capital. To the small-scale AMCs, the most important key factor is the overall economic or real estate market condition.

This thesis investigates the key determinants of the Non-performing loans (NPLs) comparing two groups of countries from Southeastern and Western Europe, with two different levels of economic development. We try to find empirical evidence and estimate whether the determinants of NPL ratio are different for the middle and high income countries. Applying panel data models for 14 countries overall, and using the regressions of subsampled countries, we analyze the importance of the determinants at the aggregate level. The final results show that all variables considered are significant, except inflation rate under all specifications and FDI when the subsampled dummy variables are used. As for the specifications of the exchange rate determinant, we conclude that the NPL ratio is negatively and significantly influenced in the export dominant middle income economies. An additional non-economic variable, such as the educational index, constructed at the national level, is found to increase the NPL ratio. Concerning the institutional quality index, averaging all six institutional indicators, this determinant does not show a consistent result across different data sample specifications.

vi Abstract The thesis investigates the linkages between macroeconomic performance and banks loans portfolio quality represented by the non-performing loans ratio in the Czech banking system in years 2003-2013. The empirical analysis evaluates how banks non-performing loans are influenced by several macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation, interest rate, unemployment rate and exchange rate. First we investigate loans quality on the aggregate level, next we analyze the quality of loans of households and non-financial corporations sector separately as the macroeconomic variables may affect these two sectors of borrowers differently. Finally the analysis of mutual links is done for different loan categories according to the level of failure also. The empirical results from vector autoregression model and impulse response analysis generally suggest that favorable macroeconomic conditions improve banks loans quality by lowering the non-performing loans ratio and vice versa. The thesis also identifies the feedback effect of increasing non- performing loans ratio on economic performance. Keywords: banks loans quality, macrofinancial linkages, non-performing loans, Czech banking system

<p>Den här uppsatsen handlar om hur Japan tagit sig ur likviditetsfällan. Det finns flera tänkbara förklaringar till deras väg ur men jag har valt att fokusera på penningpolitiken, där inflationsförväntningarna spelar roll för om en expansiv penningpolitik kan bli framgångsrik. Även kreditutvecklingen ingår under den rubriken samt valutapolitiken. Jag har även valt att titta på finanspolitiken och på den utländska efterfrågan. Analysen tyder på att penningpolitiken inte fått önskad effekt på grund utav svårigheterna för den japanska centralbanken att påverka förväntningarna. Kreditutvecklingen visar att det var på grund av låg efterfrågan på lån som krediterna minskade. Den japanska valutan har stadigt deprecierats och inte krävt alltför omfattande interventioner förutom mellan 2003-2004. Finanspolitiken har inte lyckats med att driva igång den japanska ekonomin trots att de dragit på sig en statsskuld som uppgår till 170 % av BNP. Den japanska exporten har däremot ökat kraftigt främst på grund av efterfrågan från Kina och verkar ha spelat en stor roll i återhämtningen av den japanska ekonomin.</p>

Den här uppsatsen handlar om hur Japan tagit sig ur likviditetsfällan. Det finns flera tänkbara förklaringar till deras väg ur men jag har valt att fokusera på penningpolitiken, där inflationsförväntningarna spelar roll för om en expansiv penningpolitik kan bli framgångsrik. Även kreditutvecklingen ingår under den rubriken samt valutapolitiken. Jag har även valt att titta på finanspolitiken och på den utländska efterfrågan. Analysen tyder på att penningpolitiken inte fått önskad effekt på grund utav svårigheterna för den japanska centralbanken att påverka förväntningarna. Kreditutvecklingen visar att det var på grund av låg efterfrågan på lån som krediterna minskade. Den japanska valutan har stadigt deprecierats och inte krävt alltför omfattande interventioner förutom mellan 2003-2004. Finanspolitiken har inte lyckats med att driva igång den japanska ekonomin trots att de dragit på sig en statsskuld som uppgår till 170 % av BNP. Den japanska exporten har däremot ökat kraftigt främst på grund av efterfrågan från Kina och verkar ha spelat en stor roll i återhämtningen av den japanska ekonomin.

During the last decade, many European banks have been troubled with low profitability, while the amount of non-performing loans (NPLs) has increased. This thesis investigates and analyses how the increasing amount of NPL affects banks profitability and the financial system. With econometric models using panel data we examined the relationship between NPL, banks profitability and the economic cycle (GDP-growth). This combined with qualitative economic theories provided a solid analysis of this relationship. We found strong evidence the NPL-ratio has a negative correlation with both the profitability of banks and the economic cycle. With these results in mind we think the NPLs need to be dealt with by the banks and authorities soon. In accordance with our result and analysis we came up with recommendations for the banks and authorities to deal with the issue. We recognize they need to improve the secondary markets for non-performing loans, lifting the loans from their balance sheets, increase the use of Asset Management Companies and improve the NPL-management within banks.

Submitted by Nadir Basilio (nadirsb@uninove.br) on 2017-08-04T21:33:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Priscila Cristina Silva.pdf: 2177666 bytes, checksum: a8d3c5290664fa16f138371def86fcdd (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-04T21:33:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Priscila Cristina Silva.pdf: 2177666 bytes, checksum: a8d3c5290664fa16f138371def86fcdd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-23 / Customers with credit agreement in arrears for more than 90 days are characterized as non-performing loans and cause concerns in credit companies because the lack of guarantee of discharge debtor's amount. To treat this type of customer are applied collection scoring models that have as main objective to predict those debtors who have propensity to honor their debts, that is, this model focuses on credit recovery. Models based on statistical prediction techniques can be applied to the recovery of these credits, such as logistic regression and discriminant analysis. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to apply logistic regression and discriminant analysis models in predicting the recovery of non-performing loans credit portfolios. The database used was provided by the company Serasa Experian and contains a sample of ten thousand customers with twenty independent variables and a variable binary response (dependent) indicating whether or not the defaulting customer paid their debt. The sample was divided into training, validation and test and the models cited in the objective were applied individually. Then, two new logistic regression models and discriminant analysis were implemented from the outputs of the individually implemented models. The both models applied individually as the new models had generally good performance form, highlighting the new model of discriminant analysis that got correct classification of percentage higher than the new logistic regression model. It was concluded, then, based on the results that the models are a good option for predicting the credit portfolio recovery. / Os clientes que possuem contrato de crédito em atraso há mais de 90 dias são caracterizados como non-performing loans e preocupam as instituições financeiras fornecedoras de crédito pela falta de garantia da quitação desse montante devedor. Para tratar este tipo de cliente são aplicados modelos de collection scoring que têm como principal objetivo predizer aqueles devedores que possuem propensão em quitar suas dívidas, ou seja, esse modelo busca a recuperação de crédito. Modelos baseados em técnicas estatísticas de predição podem ser aplicados na recuperação como a regressão logística e a análise discriminante. Deste modo, o objetivo deste trabalho foi aplicar os modelos de regressão logística e análise discriminante na predição da recuperação de portfólios de crédito do tipo non-performing loans. A base de dados utilizada foi cedida pela empresa Serasa Experian e contém uma amostra de dez mil indivíduos com vinte variáveis independentes e uma variável resposta (dependente) binária indicando se o cliente inadimplente pagou ou não sua dívida. A amostra foi dividida em treinamento, validação e teste e foram aplicados os modelos citados de forma individual. Em seguida, dois novos modelos de regressão logística e análise discriminante foram implementados a partir das saídas (outputs) dos modelos aplicados individualmente. Com base nos resultados, tanto os modelos aplicados individualmente quanto os novos modelos apresentaram bom desempenho, com destaque para o novo modelo de análise discriminante que apresentou um percentual de classificações corretas superior ao novo modelo de regressão logística. Concluiu-se, então, que os modelos são uma boa opção para predição da recuperação de portfólios de crédito do tipo non-performing loans.

This research evaluates the factors that caused unprecedented high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs) in Chinese banks and the measures that have been taken to deal with them. In examining the surrounding issues recommendations are made, which might resolve or at least ameliorate China's non-performing loans problem. An extensive literature is drawn upon and a systematic examination of the factors that were responsible for China's NPLs is presented. The research aims and objectives, and the subsequent research themes were identified after conducting field research in Chinese banks. Six managers in Chinese banks were interviewed and their views on non-performing loans in their respective banks were obtained. These banks included: the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the China Construction Bank, the Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the State and Development Bank and Citic Bank. The results of the interviews were used to design the questionnaire, which was distributed to 16 different banks. These banks are broadly representative of the main types of bank within China and include four state-owned commercial banks, seven joint-stock commercial banks, three foreign banks, one policy bank and one city commercial bank. Content analysis and descriptive statistical techniques were used to analyse the data and the findings revealed that lending managers generally lack adequate incentives to make efficient lending decisions. Moreover, although political interference in bank lending is quite widespread within China, it is not the only issue and certainly not the major issue in explaining why managers have a tendency to select inefficient projects. The measures taken to deal with NPLs in Chinese banking are also examined and the findings suggest that these have not been totally effective in resolving the problem.

This thesis studies interconnections between macroeconomic environment and non-performing loans ratio (NPL) of banking loans provided to households in the Czech Republic in years 2005-2014. This analysis serves as tool for macroprudential policy to detect potential risks before negative consequences occur. The thesis examines mutual relations between households' non-performing loans ratio and variables capturing macroeconomic environment such as GDP growth, unemployment rate, CPI, interest rate and exchange rate. For purposes of this analysis, vector autoregressive approach and vector error correction model are applied. Based on impulse response analysis, most of expected relations are confirmed. Generally, favorable macroeconomic conditions increase payback capacity of households and reduce share of non-performing loans. According to forecast variance decomposition, increase in unemployment rate is the most serious threat for financial stability of the country from the perspective of non-performing rate increase. JEL Classification C32, C52, E21, G21 Keywords Households, indebtedness, financial stability, non-performing loans, Czech Republic, VAR, VECM Author's e-mail h.kroupa@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail seidler@email.cz