The redbanded stink bug, Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is a non-native pest of soybeans in the Americas outside of the Carribean. Mortality of overwintering adults due to cold exposure has been implicated as a major driver of interannual fluctuations in the occurrence of P. guildinii in the southeastern United States, but formal investigations of drivers, including factors other than cold temperatures, are rare. We conducted overwintering assays with field-collected P. guildinii to quantify survival and coupled historical occurrence with climatic data to develop a species distribution model. We found that leaf litter provides substantial insulation from lethal temperatures and thus increases the potential for overwintering survival of P. guildinii. Our species distribution model indicates that the northern extent of the insect’s range is limited by winter temperatures, but that can potentially expand the range hundreds of kilometers in a growing season.