This paper investigates the drivers of growth and prosperity in a group of eleven European countries -- Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia (the EU11). Since the EU11 began the transformation process, this group of emerging countries has made impressive strides as developing market economies and is anchoring development in European Union institutions. There are reasons to believe that the convergence of EU11 income per capita to Western European levels will continue, but will proceed more slowly. The paper concludes that trade and financial integration have sped along at a spectacular pace in the EU11 in the recent past, although trade in modern services and the integration of government bond and equity markets are somewhat behind. As in the rest of Europe, demographic developments will pose huge challenges for the sustainability of public finance in the EU11 economies. In the next several decades, the EU11 labor force is expected to contract more than labor forces in the rest of the European Union, making it even more urgent that countries in the region reform pension systems, change migration policy, and find incentives to attract talent to the region. Closing the gap with the rest of the European Union in educational attainment levels and improving education quality might significantly soften the constraints imposed by the demographic threats and produce sizable returns in terms of additional income convergence.

Economic theory does not always specify the functional relationship between dependent and explanatory variables, or even isolate a particular set of covariates. This means that model uncertainty is pervasive in empirical economics. In this paper, we indicate how Bayesian semi-parametric regression methods in combination with stochastic search variable selection can be used to address two model uncertainties simultaneously: (i) the uncertainty with respect to the variables which should be included in the model and (ii) the uncertainty with respect to the functional form of their effects. The presented approach enables the simultaneous identification of robust linear and nonlinear effects. The additional insights gained are illustrated on applications in empirical economics, namely willingness to pay for housing, and cross-country growth regression.

We explore some empirical properties of Austria's "Investment Development Path" (IDP) on the macro level as well as on the structural and the bilateral level. Three dimensions are analyzed, namely the growth, the stability, and the sign of the Net Outward Investment Position (NOIP). While the NOIP on the macro level has been negative throughout the last two decades, there is considerable variation on the industry and the bilateral level. Given the small domestic market size, the NOIP of Austria does not reflect the high level of development in terms of GDP. Several explanations for the below-average NOIP of Austria are provided. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Der Widerstand gegen die Globalisierung in den Industriestaaten wächst, populistische Bewegungen in Europa und den USA gewinnen an Bedeutung wobei rechte, linke und wachstumskritische Bewegungen mit unterschiedlichen Motiven eine Renationalisierung der Politik unterstützen. Die ökonomische Theorie betont die Vorteile der Globalisierung, durch verstärkte Arbeitsteilung, bessere Nutzung der Ressourcen und raschere Dissemination von Wissen und Technologien. Sie betont aber auch dass es Verlierer des Prozesses gibt, wenn Ungleichheiten und Ungleichgewichte sich verschärfen und Globalisierung wirtschaftspolitisch begleitet werden muss. Dieser Artikel untersucht ob die Vorteile aber auch die Ungleichgewichte in der letzten Globalisierungsphase eingetreten. Er berichtet über die fehlende politischen Begleitung, die zunehmende Globalisierungskritik in den Industrieländern und die Forderung nach Renationalisierung der Politik. Die falsche Verherrlichung der Vergangenheit und egoistischen Reaktionen verschärfen allerdings die Probleme und gefährden die Wohlfahrt. Kriterien einer verantwortungsbewussten Globalisierung werden entwickelt. Globale Herausforderungen verlangen internationale Regeln, sie dürfen jedoch nicht in zentralistische Maßnahmen münden die als Fremdbestimmung empfunden werden. Europäische Ziele und Rahmenbedingungen sollen so gewählt werden, dass sie den nationalen Spielraum erweitern und Bottom-Up-Initiativen fördern. Dieser "Empowermentansatz" sollte in die strategische Neuausrichtung Europas einfließen und könnte den Beginn einer europäischen Globalisierungsstrategie darstellen, die Standards nach oben angleicht und die bisherigen Verlierer befähigt, an den Vorteilen der Globalisierung teilzuhaben. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Herman Daly's view of the economy as an "inverted pyramid" sitting on top of essential raw material inputs is compelling, but not readily visible in monetary data, as the contribution of primary sectors to value added is typically low. This article argues that "forward linkages", a classical development theory concept capturing the relevance of a sector for downstream activities, is a more appropriate measure to identify key sectors. Using Input-Output (IO) data from eighteen European countries, we identify mining as the sector with the highest average forward linkages, and confirm the consistency of this result across countries via cluster analysis. By treating IO tables as the adjacency matrix of a directed network, we then build and visualise national inverted pyramid networks, and analyse their structure. Our approach highlights the key importance of natural resources in providing the necessary inputs to modern European economies. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

Political opposition to globalisation has risen in industrialized countries, although the positive overall effects on the growth of the world economy and the alleviation of poverty are empirically verifiable. However, the effects of globalisation vary according to regions, professional groups, and education. In the period of intensive globalisation, unemployment and inequality have risen, and people feel their lives to be determined by forces they cannot influence. Since the many new challenges, such as climate protection, can be better solved by worldwide efforts, it is indispensable to avoid new national barriers and to strengthen the endorsement of globalisation and the concomitant welfare effects. However, it is also necessary to respect cultural differences in preferences and to view globalisation as a search and learning process. Instruments for the implementation of such a strategy may vary according to regional specifics. Social and ecological goals - gaining higher importance with rising per capita incomes - are well-represented in the European model, but for worldwide solutions other socio-economic models will offer preferences and solutions. Apart from the announced partial withdrawal of the United States from globalisation and the upcoming dominance of China in world affairs and large scale investment, Europe would be well-advised to take a greater responsibility if not the lead in determining the rules of globalisation. Based on an opinion-forming process within Europe, responsible globalisation can significantly improve the quality of life in Europe and its partners worldwide.

This paper uses data for 255 NUTS-2 European regions over the period 1995-2003 to test the relative explanatory performance of two important rival theories seeking to explain variations in the level of economic development across regions, namely the neoclassical model originating from the work of Solow (1956) and the so-called Wage Equation, which is one of a set of simultaneous equations consistent with the short-run equilibrium of new economic geography (NEG) theory, as described by Fujita, Krugman and Venables (1999). The rivals are non-nested, so that testing is accomplished both by fitting the reduced form models individually and by simply combining the two rivals to create a composite model in an attempt to identify the dominant theory. We use different estimators for the resulting panel data model to account variously for interregional heterogeneity, endogeneity, and temporal and spatial dependence, including maximum likelihood with and without fixed effects, two stage least squares and feasible generalised spatial two stage least squares plus GMM; also most of these models embody a spatial autoregressive error process. These show that the estimated NEG model parameters correspond to theoretical expectation, whereas the parameter estimates derived from the neoclassical model reduced form are sometimes insignificant or take on counterintuitive signs. This casts doubt on the appropriateness of neoclassical theory as a basis for explaining cross-regional variation in economic development in Europe, whereas NEG theory seems to hold in the face of competition from its rival. (authors' abstract)

This article develops a novel methodological framework to investigate the exposure of eco- nomic systems to the risk of physical capital stranding. Combining Input-Output (IO) and network theory, we define measures to identify both the sectors likely to trigger relevant capital stranding cascades and those most exposed to capital stranding risk. We show how, in a sample of ten European countries, mining is among the sectors with the highest external asset strand- ing multipliers. The sectors most affected by capital stranding triggered by decarbonisation include electricity and gas; coke and refined petroleum products; basic metals; and transporta- tion. From these sectors, stranding would frequently cascade down to chemicals; metal products; motor vehicles water and waste services; wholesale and retail trade; and public administration. Finally, we provide an estimate for the lower-bound amount of assets at risk of transition-related stranding, which is in the range of 0.6-8.2% of the overall productive capital stock for our sample of countries, mainly concentrated in the electricity and gas sector, manufacturing, and mining. These results confirm the systemic relevance of transition-related risks on European societies. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers