Applying a growth accounting framework and a wide range of static and dynamic panel data estimators on a panel covering 22 market economies and 11 transition countries over 1990-2001, we find a weak and fragile finance-growth link in market economies, but strong financial sectorinduced short-run growth effects in transition countries. The main growth effect hereby runs via the productivity channel. Parametric heterogeneity and financial structure seem to play a more important role than hitherto assumed: The financial sector and its different segments trigger different growth effects in different countries. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

We study empirically the role of education, age structure and other socioeconomic factors as a determinant of the transition to stable democratic regimes. Our findings suggest that educational improvements (in particular in primary education) and policies towards reducing inequalities in educational attainment play a particularly important role as a catalyst of sustainable democratization processes. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Investigating how lending programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982-2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000-2009 subsample the results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects might disappear in the long-run. (author's abstract)

This report describes the aim, scope, underlying literature and results of the research project "The Nexus between the Financial and the Real Sector". We studied the contribution of the financial sector as a whole and its individual segments (bank credits, the issuance of bonds and shares) to real economic growth in EU Member and Candidate Countries, the United States and Japan. We supplement existing approaches with the inclusion of the bond market and of foreign direct investment in the banking sector, wherein for the first time, we provide empirical evidence for slightly positive effects thereof. Methodically, we extend previous research by the production-function approach and document the importance of the market microstructure. We recommend to include liberalisation and integration effects, the bond and insurance sector, and effects of foreign bank entry and investment into future research on the Finance-Growth-Nexus. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

Investigating how lending programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982-2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000-2009 subsample the results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects might disappear in the long-run. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series