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Climatological winds over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EqlO) are westerly most of the year. Twice a year, in April-May ("spring") and October-December ("fall"), strong, sustained westerly winds generate eastward equatorial jets in the ocean. There are several unresolved issues related to the equatorial jets. They accelerate rapidly to speeds over lms"1 when westerly wind stress increases to about 0.7 dyne cm"2 in spring and fall, but decelerate while the wind stress continues to be westerly; each jet is followed by westward flow in the upper ocean lasting a month or longer. In addition to the semi-annual cycle, the equatorial winds and currents have strong in-traseasonal fluctuations. Observations show strong 30-60 day variability of zonal flow, and suggest that there might be variability with periods shorter than 20 days in the central EqlO. Observations from moored current meter arrays along 80.5°E south of Sri Lanka showed a distinct 15 day oscillation of equatorial meridional velocity (v) and off-equatorial zonal velocity (u). Recent observations from current meter moorings at the equator in the eastern EqlO show continuous 10-20 day, or biweekly, oscillations of v. The main motivation for the present study is to understand the dynamics of intraseasonal variability in the Indian Ocean that has been documented in the observational literature. What physical processes are responsible for the peculiar behavior of the equatorial jets? What are the relative roles of wind stress and large scale ocean dynamics? Does intraseasonal variability of wind stress force intraseasonal jets? What is the structure and origin of the biweekly variability? The intraseasonal and longer timescale variability of the equatorial Indian Ocean circulation is studied using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and recent in Abstract ii situ observations. The OGCM simulations are validated against other available observations. In this thesis, we document the space-time structure of the variability of equatorial Indian Ocean circulation, and attempt to find answers to some of the questions raised above. The main results are based on OGCM simulations forced by high frequency reanalysis and satellite scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds. Several model experiments with idealized winds are used to interpret the results of the simulations. In addition to the OGCM simulations, the origin of observed intraseasonal anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern EqlO and Bay of Bengal, and related air-sea interaction, are investigated using validated satellite data. The main findings of the thesis can be summarized as: • High frequency accurate winds are required for accurate simulation of equatorial Indian Ocean currents, which have strong variability on intraseasonal to interannual time scales. • The variability in the equatorial waveguide is mainly driven by variability of the winds; there is some intraseasonal variability near the western boundary and in the equatorial waveguide due to dynamic instability of seasonal "mean" flows. • The fall equatorial jet is generally stronger and longer lived than the spring jet; the fall jet is modulated on intraseasonal time scales. Westerly wind bursts can drive strong intraseasonal equatorial jets in the eastern EqlO during the summer monsoon. • Eastward equatorial jets create a westward zonal pressure gradient force by raising sea level, and deepening the thermocline, in the east relative to the west. The zonal pressure force relaxes via Rossby wave radiation from the eastern boundary. • The zonal pressure force exerts strong control on the evolution of zonal flow; the decel eration of the eastward jets, and the subsequent westward flow in the upper ocean in the presence of westerly wind stress, is due to the zonal pressure force. • Neither westward currents in the upper ocean nor subsurface eastward flow (the ob served spring and summer "undercurrent") requires easterly winds; they can be gener ated by equatorial adjustment due to Kelvin (Rossby) waves generated at the western (eastern) boundary. • The biweekly variability in the EqlO is associated with forced mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves generated by intraseasonal variability of winds. The biweekly MRG wave in has westward and upward phase propagation, zonal wavelength of 3000-4500 km and phase speed of 4 m s"1; it is associated with deep off equatorial upwelling/downwelling. Intraseasonal SST anomalies are forced mainly by net heat flux anomalies in the central and eastern EqlO; the large northward propagating SST anomalies in summer in the Bay of Bengal are due to net heat flux anomalies associated with the monsoon active-break cycle. Coherent variability in the atmosphere and ocean suggests air-sea interaction.

The most important component of the climate system over the Indian Ocean region is the southwest monsoon, which dictates the life and economy of billions of people in the tropics. Being a phenomena that involves interaction between atmosphere, ocean and land, the southwest monsoon is strongly influenced by upper ocean, primarily through warm sea surface temperature (SST). This is particularly true about the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) and the onset of southwest monsoon over the peninsular India. A localized patch of warm water, known as the Arabian Sea mini warm pool (ASMWP), forms in the SEAS during February–March. It remain as the warmest spot in the northern Indian Ocean till early April. A large region, surrounding the SEAS, attains SST exceeding 30°C during April–May, with often the ASMWP as its core. The ASMWP is believed to have a critical impact on the air-sea interaction during the onset phase of southwest monsoon and on the formation of the onset vortex, during late May or early June. This thesis addresses the formation mechanisms of ASMWP, using a high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) of the Indian Ocean. In addition to the formation of ASMWP, the SEAS is characterized by several features in its hydrography and circulation, which have been invoked in the past to explain the preferential warming of this oceanic region. During November–January, the prevailing surface currents transport low-salinity water from the Bay of Bengal into the SEAS and leads to strong haline stratification in the upper layer and formation of barrier layer (layer between mixed layer and isothermal layer). The vertical distribution of temperature in the SEAS exhibit inversions (higher subsurface temperature than that at surface) during December–February. A high in sea level and anticyclonic eddies develop in the SEAS during December and they propagate westward. These eddies modify the hydrography through downwelling and play an important role in the redistribution of advected low-salinity water within the SEAS. The seasonally reversing coastal and equatorial currents present in and around SEAS also have a major contribution in setting up the hydrography, through the advection and redistribution of cooler low-salinity water. These features make the SEAS a unique oceanographic region. The first hypothesis on the formation of ASMWP, which has been suggested by diagnostic studies, is based on the barrier layer mechanism. The barrier layer, caused by the influx of low-salinity water at surface, is argued to maintain a shallow mixed layer which can warm more efficiently. In addition, presence of barrier layer can prevent mixed layer cooling, by cutting off the interaction of mixed layer with cooler thermocline water below. However, a coupled model study have shown that there is no significant impact on the ASMWP formation from barrier layer, but only a weak warming effect during it mature phase during April. The second hypothesis, which is based on an OGCM study, has suggested that the temperature inversions present within the barrier layer can heat the mixed layer through turbulent entrainment and in turn lead to the formation of ASMWP during February–March. Both hypotheses rule out the possibility of air-sea heat fluxes being the primary reason in its formation. The strong salinity stratification in the SEAS during December–March is central to the hypotheses about formation of the ASMWP. Observational studies have only limited success in assessing the contribution from barrier layer and temperature inversions, as the ASMWP always form in their presence. OGCMs offer a better alternative. However, modelling processes in the northern Indian Ocean, especially that in the SEAS, is a challenging problem. Previous Indian Ocean models have had serious difficulties in simulating the low-salinity water in the Bay of Bengal and its intrusion into the SEAS. The northward advection of low-salinity water in the SEAS, along the west coast of India, is used to be absent in model simulations. Moreover, the coarse resolution inhibited those models from simulating faster surface currents and vigorous eddies as seen in the observations. In this thesis, we use an OGCM of the Indian Ocean, based on the recent version of Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p0), to study the ASMWP. The model has high resolutions in the horizontal (1/4o x 1/4o) and vertical (40 levels, with 5 m spacing in upper 60 m), and has been forced with daily values momentum, heat and freshwater fluxes. The turbulent (latent and sensible) and long wave heat fluxes have been calculated as a function of model SST. The freshwater forcing consists of precipitation, evaporation and river runoff, and there are no surface restoring or flux adjustments. The river runoff has been distributed over several grid points about the river mouth instead of discharging into a singe grid point, which has resulted in remarkable improvements in salinity simulation. The model simulates the Indian Ocean temperature, salinity and circulation remarkably well. The pattern of model temperature distribution and evolution matches very well with that in the observations. Significant improvements have been made in the salinity simulation, including the Bay of Bengal freshwater plume and intrusion of low-salinity water from the bay into the SEAS. The salinity distribution within the SEAS is also well represented in the model. The use of appropriate horizontal friction parameters has resulted in the simulation of realistic currents. The observed features in the SEAS, including the life cycle of the ASMWP, low-salinity water, barrier layer, temperature inversions, eddies and currents are well represented in the model. Present study has unraveled the processes involved in the life cycle of barrier layer and temperature inversions in the SEAS. Presence of low-salinity water is necessary for their formation. Barrier layer develops in the SEAS during November, after the intrusion of low-salinity water from the Bay of Bengal. The barrier layer is thickest during January–February, and it dissipates during March–April. The variations and peak of barrier layer thickness is controlled by variations in isothermal layer depth, which in turn is dominated by the downwelling effects of anticyclonic eddies. The intense solar heating during March–April leads to the formation of shallow isothermal layer and results in the dissipation of barrier layer. Temperature inversions starts developing in the SEAS during December, reaches its peak during January–February and dissipates in the following months. Advection of cooler low-salinity water over warmer salty water and penetrating shortwave radiation is found to cause temperature inversions within the SEAS, whereas winter cooling is also important to the north and south of the SEAS. There is significant variation in the magnitude, depth of occurrence and formation mechanisms of temperature inversions within the SEAS. Analysis of model mixed layer heat budget has shown that the SEAS SST is mainly controlled by atmospheric forcing, including the life cycle of ASMWP. It has also shown that the heating from temperature inversions do not contribute to the formation of ASMWP. In an experiment in which a constant salinity of 35 psu was maintained over the entire model domain, the ASMWP evolved very similar to that in the standard run, suggesting that the salinity effects are not necessary for the formation of ASMWP. Examination of wind field show that the winds over the SEAS during November–February are low due to the blocking of northeasterly winds by Western Ghats. Several process experiments by modifying the wind and turbulent heat fluxforcing fields have shown that these low winds lead to the formation of ASMWP in the SEAS during February–March. The low winds reduce latent heat loss, resulting in net heat gain by the ocean. This helps the SEAS to keep warmer SST while the surrounding region experience intense cooling under the strong dry northeasterly winds. As the winds are weak over the SEAS, the mixed layer is not able to feel the stratification beneath and the mixed layer depth is determined by solar heating, with or without salinity effects. In addition, the weak winds are not able to entrain the temperature inversions present in the barrier layer. The winds are weak during March–April too, and the air-sea heat fluxes dictate the SST evolution during this period. Therefore, during November–April, the SEAS acts as a low wind heat-dominated regime, where the evolution of sea surface temperature is solely determined by atmospheric forcing. We show that, in such regions, the evolution of surface layer temperature is not dependent on the characteristics of subsurface ocean, including the presence of barrier layer and temperature inversions.

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No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Frederico Augusto Martins Valtuille Faleiro - 2016.pdf: 7096330 bytes, checksum: 04cfce04ef128c5bd6e99ce18bb7f650 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-07 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The climate changes are one of the major threats to the biodiversity and it is expected to increase its impact along the 21st century. The climate change affect all levels of the biodiversity from individuals to biomes, reducing the ecosystem services. Despite of this, the prediction of climate change impacts on biodiversity is still a challenge. Overcoming these issues depends on improvements in different aspects of science that support predictions of climate change impact on biodiversity. The common practice to predict the climate change impact consists in formulate ecological niche models based in the current climate and project the changes based in the future climate predicted by the climate models. However, there are some recognized limitations both in the formulation of the ecological niche model and in the use of predictions from the climate models that need to be analyzed. Here, in the first chapter we review the science behind the climate models in order to reduce the knowledge gap between the scientific community that formulate the climate models and the community that use the predictions of these models. We showed that there is not consensus about evaluate the climate models, obtain regional models with higher spatial resolution and define consensual models. However, we gave some guidelines for use the predictions of the climate models. In the second chapter, we tested if the predictions of correlative ecological niche models fitted with presence-absence match the predictions of models fitted with abundance data on the metrics of climate change impact on orchid bees in the Atlantic Forest. We found that the presence-absence models were a partial proxy of change in abundance when the output of the models was continuous, but the same was not true when the predictions were converted to binary. The orchid bees in general will decrease the abundance in the future, but will retain a good amount of suitable sites in the future and the distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very close, despite of great variation. The change in the species richness and turnover will be mainly in the western and some regions of southern of the Atlantic Forest. In the third chapter, we discussed the drawbacks in using the estimations of realized niche instead the fundamental niche, such as overpredicting the effect of climate change on species’ extinction risk. We proposed a framework based on phylogenetic comparative and missing data methods to predict the dimensions of the fundamental niche of species with missing data. Moreover, we explore sources of uncertainty in predictions of fundamental niche and highlight future directions to overcome current limitations of phylogenetic comparative and missing data methods to improve predictions. We conclude that it is possible to make better use of the current knowledge about species’ fundamental niche with phylogenetic information and auxiliary traits to predict the fundamental niche of poorly-studied species. In the fourth chapter, we used the framework of the chapter three to test the performance of two recent phylogenetic modeling methods to predict the thermal niche of mammals. We showed that PhyloPars had better performance than Phylogenetic Eigenvector Maps in predict the thermal niche. Moreover, the error and bias had similar phylogenetic pattern for both margins of the thermal niche while they had differences in the geographic pattern. The variance in the performance was explained by taxonomic differences and not by methodological aspects. Finally, our models better predicted the upper margin than the lower margin of the thermal niche. This is a good news for predicting the effect of climate change on species without physiological data. We hope our finds can be used to improve the predictions of climate change effect on the biodiversity in future studies and support the political decisions on minimizing the effects of climate change on biodiversity. / As mudanças climáticas são uma das principais ameaças à biodiversidade e é esperado que aumente seu impacto ao longo do século XXI. As mudanças climáticas afetam todos os níveis de biodiversidade, de indivíduos à biomas, reduzindo os serviços ecossistêmicos. Apesar disso, as predições dos impactos das mudanças climáticas na biodiversidade é ainda um desafio. A superação dessas questões depende de melhorias em diferentes aspectos da ciência que dá suporte para predizer o impacto das mudanças climáticas na biodiversidade. A prática comum para predizer o impacto das mudanças climáticas consiste em formular modelos de nicho ecológico baseado no clima atual e projetar as mudanças baseadas no clima futuro predito pelos modelos climáticos. No entanto, existem algumas limitações reconhecidas na formulação do modelo de nicho ecológico e no uso das predições dos modelos climáticos que precisam ser analisadas. Aqui, no primeiro capítulo nós revisamos a ciência por detrás dos modelos climáticos com o intuito de reduzir a lacuna de conhecimentos entre a comunidade científica que formula os modelos climáticos e a comunidade que usa as predições dos modelos. Nós mostramos que não existe consenso sobre avaliar os modelos climáticos, obter modelos regionais com maior resolução espacial e definir modelos consensuais. No entanto, nós damos algumas orientações para usar as predições dos modelos climáticos. No segundo capítulo, nós testamos se as predições dos modelos correlativos de nicho ecológicos ajustados com presença-ausência são congruentes com aqueles ajustados com dados de abundância nas medidas de impacto das mudanças climáticas em abelhas de orquídeas da Mata Atlântica. Nós encontramos que os modelos com presença-ausência foram substitutos parciais das mudanças na abundância quando o resultado dos modelos foi contínuo (adequabilidade), mas o mesmo não ocorreu quando as predições foram convertidas para binárias. As espécies de abelhas, de modo geral, irão diminuir em abundância no futuro, mas reterão uma boa quantidade de locais adequados no futuro e a distância para áreas climáticas adequadas ganhadas podem estar bem próximo, apesar da grande variação. A mudança na riqueza e na substituição de espécies ocorrerá principalmente no Oeste e algumas regiões no sul da Mata Atlântica. No terceiro capítulo, nós discutimos as desvantagens no uso de estimativas do nicho realizado ao invés do nicho fundamental, como superestimar o efeito das mudanças climáticas no risco de extinção das espécies. Nós propomos um esquema geral baseado em métodos filogenéticos comparativos e métodos de dados faltantes para predizer as dimensões do nicho fundamental das espécies com dados faltantes. Além disso, nós exploramos as fontes de incerteza nas predições do nicho fundamental e destacamos direções futuras para superar as limitações atuais dos métodos comparativos filogenéticas e métodos de dados faltantes para melhorar as predições. Nós concluímos que é possível fazer melhor uso do conhecimento atual sobre o nicho fundamental das espécies com informação filogenética e caracteres auxiliares para predizer o nicho fundamental de espécies pouco estudadas. No quarto capítulo, nós usamos o esquema geral do capítulo três para testar a performance de dois novos métodos de modelagem filogenética para predizer o nicho térmico dos mamíferos. Nós mostramos que o “PhyloPars” teve uma melhor performance que o “Phylogenetic Eigenvector Maps” em predizer o nicho térmico. Além disso, o erro e o viés tiveram um padrão filogenético similar para ambas as margens do nicho térmico, enquanto eles apresentaram diferentes padrões espaciais. A variância na performance foi explicada pelas diferenças taxonômicas e não pelas diferenças em aspectos metodológicos. Finalmente, nossos modelos melhor predizem a margem superior do que a margem inferior do nicho térmico. Essa é uma boa notícia para predizer o efeito das mudanças climáticas em espécies sem dados fisiológicos. Nós esperamos que nossos resultados possam ser usados para melhorar as predições do efeito das mudanças climáticas na biodiversidade em estudos futuros e dar suporte para decisões políticas para minimização dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas na biodiversidade.

This thesis presents a numerical exploration of the dynamics governing rotating flow driven by a surface stress in the " sliced cylinder " model of Pedlosky & Greenspan (1967) and Beardsley (1969), and its close relative, the " sliced cone " model introduced by Griffiths & Veronis (1997). The sliced cylinder model simulates the barotropic wind-driven circulation in a circular basin with vertical sidewalls, using a depth gradient to mimic the effects of a gradient in Coriolis parameter. In the sliced cone the vertical sidewalls are replaced by an azimuthally uniform slope around the perimeter of the basin to simulate a continental slope. Since these models can be implemented in the laboratory, their dynamics can be explored by a complementary interplay of analysis and numerical and laboratory experiments. ¶ In this thesis a derivation is presented of a generalised quasigeostrophic formulation which is valid for linear and moderately nonlinear barotropic flows over large-amplitude topography on an f-plane, yet retains the simplicity and conservation properties of the standard quasigeostrophic vorticity equation (which is valid only for small depth variations). This formulation is implemented in a numerical model based on a code developed by Page (1982) and Becker & Page (1990). ¶ The accuracy of the formulation and its implementation are confirmed by detailed comparisons with the laboratory sliced cylinder and sliced cone results of Griffiths (Griffiths & Kiss, 1999) and Griffiths & Veronis (1997), respectively. The numerical model is then used to provide insight into the dynamics responsible for the observed laboratory flows. In the linear limit the numerical model reveals shortcomings in the sliced cone analysis by Griffiths & Veronis (1998) in the region where the slope and interior join, and shows that the potential vorticity is dissipated in an extended region at the bottom of the slope rather than a localised region at the east as suggested by Griffiths & Veronis (1997, 1998). Welander's thermal analogy (Welander, 1968) is used to explain the linear circulation pattern, and demonstrates that the broadly distributed potential vorticity dissipation is due to the closure of geostrophic contours in this geometry. ¶ The numerical results also provide insight into features of the flow at finite Rossby number. It is demonstrated that separation of the western boundary current in the sliced cylinder is closely associated with a " crisis " due to excessive potential vorticity dissipation in the viscous sublayer, rather than insufficient dissipation in the outer western boundary current as suggested by Holland & Lin (1975) and Pedlosky (1987). The stability boundaries in both models are refined using the numerical results, clarifying in particular the way in which the western boundary current instability in the sliced cone disappears at large Rossby and/or Ekman number. A flow regime is also revealed in the sliced cylinder in which the boundary current separates without reversed flow, consistent with the potential vorticity " crisis " mechanism. In addition the location of the stability boundary is determined as a function of the aspect ratio of the sliced cylinder, which demonstrates that the flow is stabilised in narrow basins such as those used by Beardsley (1969, 1972, 1973) and Becker & Page (1990) relative to the much wider basin used by Griffiths & Kiss (1999). ¶ Laboratory studies of the sliced cone by Griffiths & Veronis (1997) showed that the flow became unstable only under anticyclonic forcing. It is shown in this thesis that the contrast between flow under cyclonic and anticyclonic forcing is due to the combined effects of the relative vorticity and topography in determining the shape of the potential vorticity contours. The vorticity at the bottom of the sidewall smooths out the potential vorticity contours under cyclonic forcing, but distorts them into highly contorted shapes under anticyclonic forcing. In addition, the flow is dominated by inertial boundary layers under cyclonic forcing and by standing Rossby waves under anticyclonic forcing due to the differing flow direction relative to the direction of Rossby wave phase propagation. The changes to the potential vorticity structure under strong cyclonic forcing reduce the potential vorticity changes experienced by fluid columns, and the flow approaches a steady free inertial circulation. In contrast, the complexity of the flow structure under anticyclonic forcing results in strong potential vorticity changes and also leads to barotropic instability under strong forcing. ¶ The numerical results indicate that the instabilities in both models arise through supercritical Hopf bifurcations. The two types of instability observed by Griffiths & Veronis (1997) in the sliced cone are shown to be related to the western boundary current instability and " interior instability " identified by Meacham & Berloff (1997). The western boundary current instability is trapped at the western side of the interior because its northward phase speed exceeds that of the fastest interior Rossby wave with the same meridional wavenumber, as discussed by Ierley & Young (1991). ¶ Numerical experiments with different lateral boundary conditions are also undertaken. These show that the flow in the sliced cylinder is dramatically altered when the free-slip boundary condition is used instead of the no-slip condition, as expected from the work of Blandford (1971). There is no separated jet, because the flow cannot experience a potential vorticity " crisis " with this boundary condition, so the western boundary current overshoots and enters the interior from the east. In contrast, the flow in the sliced cone is identical whether no-slip, free-slip or super-slip boundary conditions are applied to the horizontal flow at the top of the sloping sidewall, except in the immediate vicinity of this region. This insensitivity results from the extremely strong topographic steering near the edge of the basin due to the vanishing depth, which demands a balance between wind forcing and Ekman pumping on the upper slope, regardless of the lateral boundary condition. The sensitivity to the lateral boundary condition is related to the importance of lateral friction in the global vorticity balance. The integrated vorticity must vanish under the no-slip condition, so in the sliced cylinder the overall vorticity budget is dominated by lateral viscosity and Ekman friction is negligible. Under the free-slip condition the Ekman friction assumes a dominant role in the dissipation, leading to a dramatic change in the flow structure. In contrast, the much larger depth variation in the sliced cone leads to a global vorticity balance in which Ekman friction is always dominant, regardless of the boundary condition.

Abstract The diurnal cycle is a dominant mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in trop-ical oceans, that influences air-sea interaction and climate processes. Diurnal variability of SST generally ranges from ~0.1 to 2.0◦C and is controlled by atmospheric fluxes of heat and momentum. In the present study, the response of intraseasonal variability (ISV) of SST in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) to diurnal atmospheric forcings, during the summer monsoon of 2007, has been examined using an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). The model is based on the Modular Ocean Model Version 4 (MOM4p0), having a horizontal resolution of 0.25◦ and 40 vertical levels, with a fine resolution of 5 m in the upper 60 m. Numerical experiments were conducted by forcing the model with daily and hourly atmospheric forcings to examine the SST-ISV modulation with the diurnal cycle. Additional experiments were performed to determine the relative role of diurnal cycle in solar radiation and winds on SST and mixed layer depth (MLD). Since salinity, which is decisive in SST variability, varies meridionally in the BoB, two locations were selected for analyses: one in the northern bay at 89◦E, 19◦N where salinity is lower and the other in the southern bay at 90◦E, 8◦N where salinity is higher, as well as observations are available from Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) buoy for comparision with model simulation. Diurnal atmospheric forcings modify SST-ISV in both southern and northern bay. SST-ISV in the southern bay, is dominantly controlled by the diurnal cycle of insolation, while in the northern bay, diurnal cycle of insolation and winds have comparable contribution. Diurnal cycle enhanced the amplitude of 3 selected intraseasonal events in the southern bay and 3 out of the 6 events in the northern bay, during the study period. In the southern bay, simulated SST variability with hourly forcing was closer to the observations from RAMA, implying that incorporating the diurnal cycle in model forcing rectifies SST-ISV. Moreover, SST obtained with diurnal forcing consists of additional fluctuations at higher frequencies within and in between intraseasonal events; such fluctuations are absent with daily forcing. The diurnal variability of SST is significant during the warming phase of intraseasonal events and reduces during the cooling phase. Diurnal amplitude of SST decreases with depth; depth dependence also being larger during the warming phase. SST-ISV modulation with diurnal forcing results from the diurnal cycle of upper ocean heat fluxes and vertical mixing. Diurnal warming and cooling result in a net gain or loss of heat in the mixed layer after a day’s cycle. When the retention (loss) of heat in the mixed layer increases with diurnal forcing during the warming (cooling) phase of intraseasonal events, the daily mean SST rise (fall) becomes higher, amplifying the intraseasonal warming (cooling). In the southern bay, SST-ISV amplification is mainly controlled by the diurnal variability of MLD, which modifies the heat fluxes. Increased intraseasonal warming with diurnal forcing results from the increase in radiative heating, due to the shoaling of the daytime mixed layer. Amplified intraseasonal cooling is dominantly con-trolled by the strengthening of sub-surface processes, due to the nocturnal deepening of mixed layer and increased temperature gradients below the mixed layer. In the northern bay, SST-ISV modulation with diurnal forcing is not as large as that in the southern bay. The mean increase in SST-ISV amplitudes with diurnal forcing is ~0.16◦C in the southern bay, while it is only ~0.03◦C in the northern bay. Reduced response of SST-ISV to diurnal forcings in the northern bay is related to the weaker diurnal variability of MLD. Salinity stratification limits diurnal variability of mixed layer in the northern bay, unlike in the southern bay. The seasonal (June - September) mean diurnal amplitude of MLD is ~15 m in the southern bay, while it is reduced to ~1.5 m in the northern bay. Diurnal variability of MLD, spanning only a few meters is not sufficient to create large modifications in mixed layer heat fluxes and SST-ISV in the northern bay. The vertical resolution of the model limits the shallowing of mixed layer to 7.5 m, thus restricting the diurnal variability of simulated MLD.