The goal of this paper is to extend the results of Bayraktar and Young (2006) on minimizing an individual's probability of lifetime ruin; i.e. the probability that the individual goes bankrupt before dying. We consider a scenario in which the individual is allowed to invest in both a domestic bank account and a foreign bank account, with the exchange rate between the two currencies being modeled by geometric Brownian motion. Additionally, we impose the restriction that the individual is not allowed to borrow money, and assume that the individual's wealth is consumed at a constant rate. We derive formulas for the minimum probability of ruin as well as the individual's optimal investment strategy. We also give a few numerical examples to illustrate these results.

We study the infinite time ruin probability for an insurance company in the classical Cramér-Lundberg model with finite exponential moments. The additional non-classical feature is that the company is also allowed to invest in some stock market, modeled by geometric Brownian motion. We obtain an exact analogue of the classical estimate for the ruin probability without investment, i.e., an exponential inequality. The exponent is larger than the one obtained without investment, the classical Lundberg adjustment coefficient, and thus one gets a sharper bound on the ruin probability. A surprising result is that the trading strategy yielding the optimal asymptotic decay of the ruin probability simply consists in holding a fixed quantity (which can be explicitly calculated) in the risky asset, independent of the current reserve. This result is in apparent contradiction to the common believe that 'rich' companies should invest more in risky assets than 'poor' ones. The reason for this seemingly paradoxical result is that the minimization of the ruin probability is an extremely conservative optimization criterion, especially for 'rich' companies. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

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Thesis (MSc (Mathematics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The first approach initiated by Merton [Mer69, Mer71] to solve utility maximization portfolio problems in continuous time is based on stochastic control theory. The idea of Merton was to interpret the maximization portfolio problem as a stochastic control problem where the trading strategies are considered as a control process and the portfolio wealth as the controlled process. Merton derived the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation and for the special case of power, logarithm and exponential utility functions he produced a closedform solution. A principal disadvantage of this approach is the requirement of the Markov property for the stocks prices. The so-called martingale method represents the second approach for solving utility maximization portfolio problems in continuous time. It was introduced by Pliska [Pli86], Cox and Huang [CH89, CH91] and Karatzas et al. [KLS87] in di erent variant. It is constructed upon convex duality arguments and allows one to transform the initial dynamic portfolio optimization problem into a static one and to resolve it without requiring any \Markov" assumption. A de nitive answer (necessary and su cient conditions) to the utility maximization portfolio problem for terminal wealth has been obtained by Kramkov and Schachermayer [KS99]. In this thesis, we study the convex duality approach to the expected utility maximization problem (from terminal wealth) in continuous time stochastic markets, which as already mentioned above can be traced back to the seminal work by Merton [Mer69, Mer71]. Before we detail the structure of our thesis, we would like to emphasize that the starting point of our work is based on Chapter 7 in Pham [P09] a recent textbook. However, as the careful reader will notice, we have deepened and added important notions and results (such as the study of the upper (lower) hedge, the characterization of the essential supremum of all the possible prices, compare Theorem 7.2.2 in Pham [P09] with our stated Theorem 2.4.9, the dynamic programming equation 2.31, the superhedging theorem 2.6.1...) and we have made a considerable e ort in the proofs. Indeed, several proofs of theorems in Pham [P09] have serious gaps (not to mention typos) and even aws (for example see the proof of Proposition 7.3.2 in Pham [P09] and our proof of Proposition 3.4.8). In the rst chapter, we state the expected utility maximization problem and motivate the convex dual approach following an illustrative example by Rogers [KR07, R03]. We also brie y review the von Neumann - Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory. In the second chapter, we begin by formulating the superreplication problem as introduced by El Karoui and Quenez [KQ95]. The fundamental result in the literature on super-hedging is the dual characterization of the set of all initial endowments leading to a super-hedge of a European contingent claim. El Karoui and Quenez [KQ95] rst proved the superhedging theorem 2.6.1 in an It^o di usion setting and Delbaen and Schachermayer [DS95, DS98] generalized it to, respectively, a locally bounded and unbounded semimartingale model, using a Hahn-Banach separation argument. The superreplication problem inspired a very nice result, called the optional decomposition theorem for supermartingales 2.4.1, in stochastic analysis theory. This important theorem introduced by El Karoui and Quenez [KQ95], and extended in full generality by Kramkov [Kra96] is stated in Section 2.4 and proved at the end of Section 2.7. The third chapter forms the theoretical core of this thesis and it contains the statement and detailed proof of the famous Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem that addresses the duality of utility maximization portfolio problems. Firstly, we show in Lemma 3.2.1 how to transform the dynamic utility maximization problem into a static maximization problem. This is done thanks to the dual representation of the set of European contingent claims, which can be dominated (or super-hedged) almost surely from an initial endowment x and an admissible self- nancing portfolio strategy given in Corollary 2.5 and obtained as a consequence of the optional decomposition of supermartingale. Secondly, under some assumptions on the utility function, the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the static problem is given in Theorem 3.2.3. Because the solution of the static problem is not easy to nd, we will look at it in its dual form. We therefore synthesize the dual problem from the primal problem using convex conjugate functions. Before we state the Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem 3.4.1, we present the Inada Condition and the Asymptotic Elasticity Condition for Utility functions. For the sake of clarity, we divide the long and technical proof of Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem 3.4.1 into several lemmas and propositions of independent interest, where the required assumptions are clearly indicate for each step of the proof. The key argument in the proof of Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem is an in nitedimensional version of the minimax theorem (the classical method of nding a saddlepoint for the Lagrangian is not enough in our situation), which is central in the theory of Lagrange multipliers. For this, we have stated and proved the technical Lemmata 3.4.5 and 3.4.6. The main steps in the proof of the the Kramkov-Schachermayer Theorem 3.4.1 are: We show in Proposition 3.4.9 that the solution to the dual problem exists and we characterize it in Proposition 3.4.12. From the construction of the dual problem, we nd a set of necessary and su cient conditions (3.1.1), (3.1.2), (3.3.1) and (3.3.7) for the primal and dual problems to each have a solution. Using these conditions, we can show the existence of the solution to the given problem and characterize it in terms of the market parameters and the solution to the dual problem. In the last chapter we will present and study concrete examples of the utility maximization portfolio problem in speci c markets. First, we consider the complete markets case, where closed-form solutions are easily obtained. The detailed solution to the classical Merton problem with power utility function is provided. Lastly, we deal with incomplete markets under It^o processes and the Brownian ltration framework. The solution to the logarithmic utility function as well as to the power utility function is presented. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die eerste benadering, begin deur Merton [Mer69, Mer71], om nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleme op te los in kontinue tyd is gebaseer op stogastiese beheerteorie. Merton se idee is om die maksimering portefeulje probleem te interpreteer as 'n stogastiese beheer probleem waar die handelstrategi e as 'n beheer-proses beskou word en die portefeulje waarde as die gereguleerde proses. Merton het die Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) vergelyking afgelei en vir die spesiale geval van die mags, logaritmies en eksponensi ele nutsfunksies het hy 'n oplossing in geslote-vorm gevind. 'n Groot nadeel van hierdie benadering is die vereiste van die Markov eienskap vir die aandele pryse. Die sogenaamde martingale metode verteenwoordig die tweede benadering vir die oplossing van nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleme in kontinue tyd. Dit was voorgestel deur Pliska [Pli86], Cox en Huang [CH89, CH91] en Karatzas et al. [KLS87] in verskillende wisselvorme. Dit word aangevoer deur argumente van konvekse dualiteit, waar dit in staat stel om die aanvanklike dinamiese portefeulje optimalisering probleem te omvorm na 'n statiese een en dit op te los sonder dat' n \Markov" aanname gemaak hoef te word. 'n Bepalende antwoord (met die nodige en voldoende voorwaardes) tot die nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleem vir terminale vermo e is verkry deur Kramkov en Schachermayer [KS99]. In hierdie proefskrif bestudeer ons die konveks dualiteit benadering tot die verwagte nuts maksimering probleem (van terminale vermo e) in kontinue tyd stogastiese markte, wat soos reeds vermeld is teruggevoer kan word na die seminale werk van Merton [Mer69, Mer71]. Voordat ons die struktuur van ons tesis uitl^e, wil ons graag beklemtoon dat die beginpunt van ons werk gebaseer is op Hoofstuk 7 van Pham [P09] se onlangse handboek. Die noukeurige leser sal egter opmerk, dat ons belangrike begrippe en resultate verdiep en bygelas het (soos die studie van die boonste (onderste) verskansing, die karakterisering van die noodsaaklike supremum van alle moontlike pryse, vergelyk Stelling 7.2.2 in Pham [P09] met ons verklaarde Stelling 2.4.9, die dinamiese programerings vergelyking 2.31, die superverskansing stelling 2.6.1...) en ons het 'n aansienlike inspanning in die bewyse gemaak. Trouens, verskeie bewyse van stellings in Pham cite (P09) het ernstige gapings (nie te praat van setfoute nie) en selfs foute (kyk byvoorbeeld die bewys van Stelling 7.3.2 in Pham [P09] en ons bewys van Stelling 3.4.8). In die eerste hoofstuk, sit ons die verwagte nutsmaksimering probleem uit een en motiveer ons die konveks duaale benadering gebaseer op 'n voorbeeld van Rogers [KR07, R03]. Ons gee ook 'n kort oorsig van die von Neumann - Morgenstern Verwagte Nutsteorie. In die tweede hoofstuk, begin ons met die formulering van die superreplikasie probleem soos voorgestel deur El Karoui en Quenez [KQ95]. Die fundamentele resultaat in die literatuur oor super-verskansing is die duaale karakterisering van die versameling van alle eerste skenkings wat lei tot 'n super-verskans van' n Europese voorwaardelike eis. El Karoui en Quenez [KQ95] het eers die super-verskansing stelling 2.6.1 bewys in 'n It^o di usie raamwerk en Delbaen en Schachermayer [DS95, DS98] het dit veralgemeen na, onderskeidelik, 'n plaaslik begrensde en onbegrensde semimartingale model, met 'n Hahn-Banach skeidings argument. Die superreplikasie probleem het 'n prag resultaat ge nspireer, genaamd die opsionele ontbinding stelling vir supermartingales 2.4.1 in stogastiese ontledings teorie. Hierdie belangrike stelling wat deur El Karoui en Quenez [KQ95] voorgestel is en tot volle veralgemening uitgebrei is deur Kramkov [Kra96] is uiteengesit in Afdeling 2.4 en bewys aan die einde van Afdeling 2.7. Die derde hoofstuk vorm die teoretiese basis van hierdie proefskrif en bevat die verklaring en gedetailleerde bewys van die beroemde Kramkov-Schachermayer stelling wat die dualiteit van nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleme adresseer. Eerstens, wys ons in Lemma 3.2.1 hoe om die dinamiese nutsmaksimering probleem te omskep in 'n statiese maksimerings probleem. Dit kan gedoen word te danke aan die duaale voorstelling van die versameling Europese voorwaardelike eise, wat oorheers (of super-verskans) kan word byna seker van 'n aanvanklike skenking x en 'n toelaatbare self- nansierings portefeulje strategie wat in Gevolgtrekking 2.5 gegee word en verkry is as gevolg van die opsionele ontbinding van supermartingale. In die tweede plek, met sekere aannames oor die nutsfunksie, is die bestaan en uniekheid van die oplossing van die statiese probleem gegee in Stelling 3.2.3. Omdat die oplossing van die statiese probleem nie maklik verkrygbaar is nie, sal ons kyk na die duaale vorm. Ons sintetiseer dan die duale probleem van die prim^ere probleem met konvekse toegevoegde funksies. Voordat ons die Kramkov-Schachermayer Stelling 3.4.1 beskryf, gee ons die Inada voorwaardes en die Asimptotiese Elastisiteits Voorwaarde vir Nutsfunksies. Ter wille van duidelikheid, verdeel ons die lang en tegniese bewys van die Kramkov-Schachermayer Stelling ref in verskeie lemmas en proposisies op, elk van onafhanklike belang waar die nodige aannames duidelik uiteengesit is vir elke stap van die bewys. Die belangrikste argument in die bewys van die Kramkov-Schachermayer Stelling is 'n oneindig-dimensionele weergawe van die minimax stelling (die klassieke metode om 'n saalpunt vir die Lagrange-funksie te bekom is nie genoeg in die geval nie), wat noodsaaklik is in die teorie van Lagrange-multiplikators. Vir die, meld en bewys ons die tegniese Lemmata 3.4.5 en 3.4.6. Die belangrikste stappe in die bewys van die die Kramkov-Schachermayer Stelling 3.4.1 is: Ons wys in Proposisie 3.4.9 dat die oplossing vir die duale probleem bestaan en ons karaktiriseer dit in Proposisie 3.4.12. Uit die konstruksie van die duale probleem vind ons 'n versameling nodige en voldoende voorwaardes (3.1.1), (3.1.2), (3.3.1) en (3.3.7) wat die prim^ere en duale probleem oplossings elk moet aan voldoen. Deur hierdie voorwaardes te gebruik, kan ons die bestaan van die oplossing vir die gegewe probleem wys en dit karakteriseer in terme van die mark parameters en die oplossing vir die duale probleem. In die laaste hoofstuk sal ons konkrete voorbeelde van die nutsmaksimering portefeulje probleem bestudeer vir spesi eke markte. Ons kyk eers na die volledige markte geval waar geslote-vorm oplossings maklik verkrygbaar is. Die gedetailleerde oplossing vir die klassieke Merton probleem met mags nutsfunksie word voorsien. Ten slotte, hanteer ons onvolledige markte onderhewig aan It^o prosesse en die Brown ltrering raamwerk. Die oplossing vir die logaritmiese nutsfunksie, sowel as die mags nutsfunksie word aangebied.

We investigate the impact of cash reserves upon the optimal behaviour of a modelled firm that has uncertain future revenues. To achieve this, we build up a corporate financing model of a firm from a Real Options foundation, with the option to close as a core business decision maintained throughout. We model the firm by employing an optimal stochastic control mathematical approach, which is based upon a partial differential equations perspective. In so doing, we are able to assess the incremental impacts upon the optimal operation of the cash constrained firm, by sequentially including: an optimal dividend distribution; optimal equity financing; and optimal debt financing (conducted in a novel equilibrium setting between firm and creditor). We present efficient numerical schemes to solve these models, which are generally built from the Projected Successive Over Relaxation (PSOR) method, and the Semi-Lagrangian approach. Using these numerical tools, and our gained economic insights, we then allow the firm the option to also expand the operation, so they may also take advantage of favourable economic conditions.

<p>Essentially this project report is a discussion of mathematical modelling in pension funds, presenting sections from Cairns, A.J.D., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Stochastic lifestyling: Optimal dynamic asset allocation for defined contribution pension plans, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 30, Issue 2006, Pages 843-877, with added details and background material in order to demonstrate the mathematical methods. In the investigation of the management of the investment portfolio, we only use one risky asset together with a bond and cash as other assets in a&nbsp / continuous time framework. The particular model is very much designed according to the members&rsquo / preference and then the funds are invested by the fund manager in the financial market. At the end, we are going to show various simulations of these models. Our methods include stochastic control for utility maximisation among others. The optimisation problem entails the optimal&nbsp / investment portfolio to maximise a certain power utility function. We use MATLAB and MAPLE programming languages to generate results in the form of graphs and tables</p>

This thesis describes the process in which a Two-Generation model and N-Generation model can determine the optimal levels of investment in sustainability without applying a discount rate to the benefits to future generations. These models constrain utility so that utility for each generation is equivalent; these models do not dilute the benefits to future generations, which promotes equity between generations and reflects the fact that Generation 2 will have to pay off the remaining balance on the sustainability investment. The models demonstrated that as the Generation 2’s expected value of a resource increases, the level of utility of both generations and total level of optimal investment should increase. In addition, while altruism can increase the utility of each generation, Generation 1’s level of altruism does not have an impact on the optimal level of total investment. Finally the Two-Generation model indicates that subsidizing interest rates for sustainability can be an effective way to increase investment levels. The N-Generation model demonstrates that thinking long-term will have a negative impact on the utility of the current generation; utility will decrease as the number of generations accounted for increases because of the competition among generations for scarce resources. While one generation may have to sacrifice, this model determines the level of investment in sustainability that maximizes utility across the generations and can help ensure that the trend of increasing utility continues.

This dissertation contains three essays. The first and second essays examine intergenerational mobility in earnings in Brazil using a data set spanning three generations. I use data from PNAD{a nationally representative household survey in Brazil. I build a three-generations data set consisting of 5,125 grandfather-father- son triplets by restricting the sample to households with adult sons. The first essay estimates some relationships between a child's earnings and family background implied by the Becker-Tomes model. I find that the estimates contradict some of its predictions, like the negative relationship between child's earnings and grandparent's earnings when controlling for parent's earnings. I propose a modified version of the Becker-Tomes model and find that the estimates are consistent with its predictions. I find that family background explains 34.9% of the variation in earnings among young males who live with their parents. If it were possible to eliminate the differences in investment in the children's human capital, the variation in earnings would fall by no more than 21.1%. Additionally, if there were no differences in endowments among children, the variation in earnings would fall by no less than 26%. The second essay examines the evolution of the intergenerational elasticity across generations and im- plications of marriage, education and fertility on mobility. I find that the estimate of the intergenerational elasticity in earnings is 0.847. The elasticity of earnings between son-in-law and father-in-law, 0.89, is approximately the same as the elasticity between son and father, 0.9. Additionally, controlling for fathers' percentile in the earnings distribution, each additional sibling decreases the sons' percentile by 1.77 percentiles. The third essay estimates an indicator of the optimal investment in electricity generation in Texas, and the associated efficiency gains. The essay presents a method to estimate the optimal investment in each technology available to generate electricity. The estimation considers the expected entry and exit of generation plants, future fuel prices, different demand elasticities and a potential carbon allowance mar- kets. Considering a carbon allowance price equal to two times the level in Europe, the optimal investment in electricity generation in Texas is zero.

<p>Essentially this project report is a discussion of mathematical modelling in pension funds, presenting sections from Cairns, A.J.D., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Stochastic lifestyling: Optimal dynamic asset allocation for defined contribution pension plans, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 30, Issue 2006, Pages 843-877, with added details and background material in order to demonstrate the mathematical methods. In the investigation of the management of the investment portfolio, we only use one risky asset together with a bond and cash as other assets in a&nbsp / continuous time framework. The particular model is very much designed according to the members&rsquo / preference and then the funds are invested by the fund manager in the financial market. At the end, we are going to show various simulations of these models. Our methods include stochastic control for utility maximisation among others. The optimisation problem entails the optimal&nbsp / investment portfolio to maximise a certain power utility function. We use MATLAB and MAPLE programming languages to generate results in the form of graphs and tables</p>

Magister Scientiae - MSc / Essentially this project report is a discussion of mathematical modelling in pension funds, presenting sections from Cairns, A.J.D., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Stochastic lifestyling: Optimal dynamic asset allocation for defined contribution pension plans, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 30, Issue 2006, Pages 843-877, with added details and background material in order to demonstrate the mathematical methods. In the investigation of the management of the investment portfolio, we only use one risky asset together with a bond and cash as other assets in a continuous time framework. The particular model is very much designed according to the members’ preference and then the funds are invested by the fund manager in the financial market. At the end, we are going to show various simulations of these models. Our methods include stochastic control for utility maximisation among others. The optimisation problem entails the optimal investment portfolio to maximise a certain power utility function. We use MATLAB and MAPLE programming languages to generate results in the form of graphs and tables. / South Africa