For an equity-linked insurance, the death benefit is linked to the performance of the company’s investment portfolio. Hence, both mortality risk and equity return shall be considered for pricing such insurance. Several studies have found some dependence between mortality improvement and economy growth. In this thesis, we showed that American mortality rate and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index price are negatively dependent by using several copulas to define the joint distribution. Then, we used these copulas to forecast mortality rates and index prices, and calculated the payoffs of a 10-year term equity-linked insurance. We showed that the predicted insurance payoffs will be smaller if dependence between mortality and index price is taken into account. / October 2016

Yes / Icelandic settlement (Landnám) period farmsteads offer opportunities to explore the nature and timing of anthropogenic activities and environmental impacts of the first Holocene farming communities. We employ Bayesian statistical modelling of archaeological, paleoenvironmental and documentary datasets to present a framework for improving chronological robustness of archaeological events. Specifically, we discuss events relevant to the farm Hrísbrú, an initial and complex settlement site in southwest Iceland. We demonstrate that tephra layers are key in constraining reliable chronologies, especially when combined with related datasets and treated in a Bayesian framework. The work presented here confirms earlier interpretations of the chronology of the site while providing increased confidence in the robustness of the chronology. Most importantly, integrated modelling of AMS radiocarbon dates on Hordeum vulgare grains, palynological data, documented evidence from textual records and typologically diagnostic artefacts yield increased dating reliability. The analysis has also shown that AMS radiocarbon dates on bone collagen need further scrutiny. Specifically for the Hrísbrú farm, first anthropogenic footprint palynomorph taxa are estimated to around AD 830–881 (at 95.4% confidence level), most likely before the tephra fall out of AD 877 ± 1 (the Landnám tephra layer), demonstrating the use of arable fields before the first known structures were built at Hrísbrú (AD 874–951) and prior to the conventionally accepted date of the settlement of Iceland. Finally, we highlight the importance of considering multidisciplinary factors for other archaeological and paleoecological studies of early farming communities of previously uninhabited island areas.