This thesis presents the results of developing road pavement deterioration models for the State Highway network in New Zealand pavement deterioration models are an integral part of pavement management systems, which are used to forecast long-term maintenance needs and funding requirements on a road network. As part of this research, a Long-term Pavement Performance (LTPP) programme has been established on 63 sections of the State Highways. These sections are representative of typical road sections and climatic conditions on New Zealand roads. Data collection on these sections is undertaken on an annual basis and consists of high accuracy manual measurements. These measurements include road roughness, rutting, visual defect identification and strength testing with a Falling Weight Deflectometer. Based on the LTPP data, new model formats for New Zealand conditions were developed including a crack initiation model and a three-stage rut progression model. The rut progression model consists of three stages, initial densification, stable rut growth and a probabilistic model to predict accelerated rut progression. The continuous probabilistic model developed predicts the initiation of pavement failure events such as crack initiation and accelerated rutting. It has been found that this model type has a strong agreement with actual pavement behaviour as it recognises a distribution of failure on roads rather than failure occurring at an particular point in time, namely, a year. The modelling of rut progression in the three stages including, initial densification, stable rut progression and accelerated rutting has resulted in a significant increased understanding of this defect, especially for thin flexible chip seal pavements. It has been established that the in-service performance of these pavements is relatively predictable. However, incorporating both the in-service performance and the failure of pavements into one model was unrealistic. Therefore, by having the different stages of rutting, resulted into a more accurate forecasting of this defect. Although this research has covered the two priority pavement models including cracking and rutting prediction, it has established the model framework for other pavement models to be developed. As more data become available, further work can be undertaken to refine the models and to extend the research into the performance of alternative construction materials.

This thesis presents the results of developing road pavement deterioration models for the State Highway network in New Zealand pavement deterioration models are an integral part of pavement management systems, which are used to forecast long-term maintenance needs and funding requirements on a road network. As part of this research, a Long-term Pavement Performance (LTPP) programme has been established on 63 sections of the State Highways. These sections are representative of typical road sections and climatic conditions on New Zealand roads. Data collection on these sections is undertaken on an annual basis and consists of high accuracy manual measurements. These measurements include road roughness, rutting, visual defect identification and strength testing with a Falling Weight Deflectometer. Based on the LTPP data, new model formats for New Zealand conditions were developed including a crack initiation model and a three-stage rut progression model. The rut progression model consists of three stages, initial densification, stable rut growth and a probabilistic model to predict accelerated rut progression. The continuous probabilistic model developed predicts the initiation of pavement failure events such as crack initiation and accelerated rutting. It has been found that this model type has a strong agreement with actual pavement behaviour as it recognises a distribution of failure on roads rather than failure occurring at an particular point in time, namely, a year. The modelling of rut progression in the three stages including, initial densification, stable rut progression and accelerated rutting has resulted in a significant increased understanding of this defect, especially for thin flexible chip seal pavements. It has been established that the in-service performance of these pavements is relatively predictable. However, incorporating both the in-service performance and the failure of pavements into one model was unrealistic. Therefore, by having the different stages of rutting, resulted into a more accurate forecasting of this defect. Although this research has covered the two priority pavement models including cracking and rutting prediction, it has established the model framework for other pavement models to be developed. As more data become available, further work can be undertaken to refine the models and to extend the research into the performance of alternative construction materials.

This thesis presents the results of developing road pavement deterioration models for the State Highway network in New Zealand pavement deterioration models are an integral part of pavement management systems, which are used to forecast long-term maintenance needs and funding requirements on a road network. As part of this research, a Long-term Pavement Performance (LTPP) programme has been established on 63 sections of the State Highways. These sections are representative of typical road sections and climatic conditions on New Zealand roads. Data collection on these sections is undertaken on an annual basis and consists of high accuracy manual measurements. These measurements include road roughness, rutting, visual defect identification and strength testing with a Falling Weight Deflectometer. Based on the LTPP data, new model formats for New Zealand conditions were developed including a crack initiation model and a three-stage rut progression model. The rut progression model consists of three stages, initial densification, stable rut growth and a probabilistic model to predict accelerated rut progression. The continuous probabilistic model developed predicts the initiation of pavement failure events such as crack initiation and accelerated rutting. It has been found that this model type has a strong agreement with actual pavement behaviour as it recognises a distribution of failure on roads rather than failure occurring at an particular point in time, namely, a year. The modelling of rut progression in the three stages including, initial densification, stable rut progression and accelerated rutting has resulted in a significant increased understanding of this defect, especially for thin flexible chip seal pavements. It has been established that the in-service performance of these pavements is relatively predictable. However, incorporating both the in-service performance and the failure of pavements into one model was unrealistic. Therefore, by having the different stages of rutting, resulted into a more accurate forecasting of this defect. Although this research has covered the two priority pavement models including cracking and rutting prediction, it has established the model framework for other pavement models to be developed. As more data become available, further work can be undertaken to refine the models and to extend the research into the performance of alternative construction materials.

This thesis presents the results of developing road pavement deterioration models for the State Highway network in New Zealand pavement deterioration models are an integral part of pavement management systems, which are used to forecast long-term maintenance needs and funding requirements on a road network. As part of this research, a Long-term Pavement Performance (LTPP) programme has been established on 63 sections of the State Highways. These sections are representative of typical road sections and climatic conditions on New Zealand roads. Data collection on these sections is undertaken on an annual basis and consists of high accuracy manual measurements. These measurements include road roughness, rutting, visual defect identification and strength testing with a Falling Weight Deflectometer. Based on the LTPP data, new model formats for New Zealand conditions were developed including a crack initiation model and a three-stage rut progression model. The rut progression model consists of three stages, initial densification, stable rut growth and a probabilistic model to predict accelerated rut progression. The continuous probabilistic model developed predicts the initiation of pavement failure events such as crack initiation and accelerated rutting. It has been found that this model type has a strong agreement with actual pavement behaviour as it recognises a distribution of failure on roads rather than failure occurring at an particular point in time, namely, a year. The modelling of rut progression in the three stages including, initial densification, stable rut progression and accelerated rutting has resulted in a significant increased understanding of this defect, especially for thin flexible chip seal pavements. It has been established that the in-service performance of these pavements is relatively predictable. However, incorporating both the in-service performance and the failure of pavements into one model was unrealistic. Therefore, by having the different stages of rutting, resulted into a more accurate forecasting of this defect. Although this research has covered the two priority pavement models including cracking and rutting prediction, it has established the model framework for other pavement models to be developed. As more data become available, further work can be undertaken to refine the models and to extend the research into the performance of alternative construction materials.