Late Holocene climate variability includes the Little Ice Age (LIA, 450-150 BP) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, 1100-700 BP) that are characterized by contrasting hydrologic and thermal regimes. The degree of interaction between the North American continent and the ocean during these two abrupt climate events is not well known. Marine sedimentary records from basins proximal to major rivers integrate climate signals across large spatial scales and can provide a coherent, high-resolution assessment of the oceanic and continental responses to changing climate and hydrologic conditions. The Pigmy Basin in the northern Gulf of Mexico is ideally situated to record inputs from the Mississippi River and to relate these inputs to changing hydrologic conditions over North America during the LIA and MWP. Hydrologic variability recorded over the North America continent is directly dependent on the moisture balance (E/P) over the sub-tropical Gulf of Mexico (a major source of moisture to the North America continent). Warm, moist air masses from the south interact with cold/dry air masses from the north over the North American continent to produce storm fronts. Increased evaporation over the Gulf of Mexico leads to enhanced precipitation over the North American continent, due to the intensification of atmospheric circulation, which influences meridional moisture flux from the Gulf of Mexico to the North American continent. This study focuses on the sedimentary record spanning the last 1400 years and utilizes a multi-proxy approach incorporating organic and inorganic geochemical analyses to define intervals of varying continental inputs and to assess changes in the moisture balance (E-P) within the Gulf of Mexico.

The development of an accurate and precise geochronology is imperative to understanding archives containing information about Earth’s past. Unable to date all intervals of an archive, researchers use methods of interpolation to approximate age between dates. Sections of the radiocarbon calibration curve can induce larger chronological uncertainty independent of instrumental precision, meaning even a precise date may carry inflated error in its calibration to a calendar age. Methods of interpolation range from step-wise linear regression to, most recently, Bayesian statistical models. These employ prior knowledge of accumulation rate to provide a more informed interpolation between neighboring dates. This study uses a Bayesian statistical accumulation model to inform non-sequential dating of a sediment core using a high-throughput gas-accepting accelerator mass spectrometer. Chronological uncertainty was iteratively improved but approached an asymptote due to a blend of calibration uncertainty, instrument error and sampling frequency. This novel method resulted in a superior chronology when compared to a traditional sediment core chronology with fewer, but more precise, dates from the same location. The high-resolution chronology was constructed for a gravity core from the Pigmy Basin with an overall 95% confidence age range of 360 years, unmatched by the previously established chronology of 460 years. This research reveals that a larger number of low-precision dates requires less interpolation, resulting in a more robust chronology than one based on fewer high-precision measurements necessitating a higher degree of age interpolation.