Abstract In search for new investments, innovative investment corporations need to consider many factors, including, the market side, technology side, finance side, human resources quality level and so on¡K. However, with regards to Fuel Cell and similar new heavy duty products, it is not just a normal technology and 3-5 years investment analysis; as a technological researcher, the initial research ideology is to find a norm, which can be used as a lead target at the start of the new innovative technology investment. This is one of the issues besides technological analysis, that a company investing in fuel cell need to consider at the point of investment. This also can be used as a reference for normal public investors. This research takes the point of view of the technology growth curve. It makes an attempt by representing the growth curve with accumulated patent numbers. It also investigates whether the over rated remuneration for the fuel cell industry is supported by increase in technology levels and if there were significant increases. From historical data, the results were initially unexpected as there was a positive relationship. After investigation, the main reason was that related applicable products haven¡¦t reached mature levels. Hence using fuel cell cars as the research objective, with the assistance of a realistic growth curve, initial estimates predicts the product will mature around 2008 and will be in mass production in 2010 ~ 2012. This is very similar to the prediction of future new technology schedule provided by George Washington University. Therefore the conclusion of this thesis is as below: 1. Illustrate that accumulated patent numbers represents technological advancement which can be reflected in the industry¡¦s technology capability, the growth curve. 2. According to technological capability growth curve, the over rated remuneration stock prices will raise once it reaches the applicable growth period. This is generally predicted to be after the year 2012. Even if Honda¡¦s fuel cell car is in production, the investors will still continue to invest. Otherwise, according to each company¡¦s financial analysis the investment risks will be too high.

The purpose of this diploma paper is to present economic models used to evaluate the investment and its implementation in calculating merits of investment in photovoltaic power plant. It consists of theoretical and practical part. Most importantly, the discounted cash flow method is used to evaluate the investment. To calculate the impact of potential adverse scenarios, cash flow streams of each of them were multiplied by their probabilities. Next stage of the paper provides sensitivity analysis for major risk factors. Finally, the breakeven point was determined and presented as a subsidiary case for investment decision.