É conhecido que a utilização repetitiva e consecutiva dos mesmos herbicidas, ou de herbicidas diferentes, porém com mesmo mecanismo de ação, exerce uma pressão de seleção sobre as populações de plantas daninhas controladas. As duas formas principais de resposta das populações de plantas daninhas resultantes da pressão de seleção dos herbicidas são a mudança da flora pela seleção de espécies de plantas daninhas tolerantes, ou a seleção de biótipos de plantas daninhas resistentes aos herbicidas. Na prática têm sido observadas, pelos produtores de cana-de-açúcar, mudanças de flora pela seleção de algumas espécies de capim-colchão (Digitaria spp), as quais não têm sido controladas eficientemente pelos herbicidas normalmente recomendados para o seu controle. Suspeita-se que estas populações selecionadas são constituídas por diferentes espécies de capim-colchão, que apresentam níveis maiores de tolerância aos herbicidas. Sendo assim, os objetivos desta pesquisa foram: (i) identificar taxonomicamente as espécies de capim-colchão infestante da cultura da cana-de-açúcar no Estado de São Paulo, e avaliar a eficácia de herbicidas no controle de Digitaria nuda a nível de campo; (ii) comparar a suscetibilidade das espécies D. nuda e D. ciliaris aos herbicidas do grupo químico das triazinas, uréias substituídas, imidazolinonas, triazinonas e aos herbicidas, cujo mecanismo de ação é a inibição da síntese de caroteno, e quantificar o nível de tolerância das espécies através da elaboração de curvas de dose-resposta; (iii) determinar, com a utilização de 14C-herbicida, a absorção e translocação pelas espécies Digitaria nuda e Digitaria ciliaris dos herbicidas diuron (via folha) e imazapyr e metribuzin (via raiz). A identificação das espécies de capim-colchão (Digitaria spp) foi efetuada seguindo chave de identificação existente na literatura. No estudo da eficácia de herbicidas no controle de Digitaria nuda a nível de campo, foram utilizados oito tratamentos herbicidas, aplicados em condições de pré-emergência. As avaliações de controle foram realizadas aos 15, 30 e 60 dias após a aplicação (DAA). O estudo da eficácia de herbicidas no controle das espécies Digitaria nuda e Digitaria ciliaris, foram conduzidos em casa-de-vegetação. Foram utilizados oito tratamentos herbicidas, aplicados em condições de pré-emergência. As avaliações de controle foram realizadas aos 14 e 21 (DAA). O estudo do nível de tolerância foi realizado em casa-de-vegetação do Departamento de Produção Vegetal da ESALQ/USP, Piracicaba/SP, através de curvas de dose-resposta. Os estudos de absorção e translocação foram conduzidos em câmara de crescimento, e as análises realizadas no Laboratório de Ecotoxicologia do Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura (CENA/USP), em Piracicaba, SP, utilizando-se 14C-herbicida, medindo-se a radioatividade em diferentes partes das plantas. Os resultados permitiram concluir que: (i) a espécie Digitaria nuda foi selecionada pela aplicação repetitiva dos herbicidas utilizados no controle de capim-colchão na cultura da cana-de-açúcar; demonstrando ser mais tolerante aos herbicidas dos grupos químicos das imidazolinonas e uréias substituídas, quando comparada à Digitaria ciliaris; (ii) a partir das curvas de dose-resposta, pode ser verificado que a Digitaria nuda demonstrou ser mais tolerante que a Digitaria ciliaris aos herbicidas diuron, imazapyr e tebuthiuron; (iii) a absorção e translocação não foram os mecanismos responsáveis pela tolerância apresentada pela Digitaria nuda aos herbicidas diuron e imazapyr. / It is known that the repetitive and successive use of the same or differents herbicides, but with same mechanism of action, impose a selection pressure on the weed population controled. The two main forms of weed population response resulted from the selection pressure of the herbicide is, weed species shifts, through selection of the tolerant species of weed, or selection of resistant biotipes within the population. It has been observed by sugarcane growers weed species shifts whitin the genus (Digitaria spp). It is suspected that the populations selected are constituted by different crabgrass species, with higher level of herbicide tolerance. The objectives of the research were: (i) identify taxonomically the crabgrass infesting the sugarcane crop in São Paulo state – Brazil, and to study herbicide efficacy in the control of the Digitaria nuda in field conditions; (ii) compare the susceptibility of D. nuda and D. ciliaris to herbicides of the chemical groups triazine, substituted urea, imidazolinone, triazinone, and inhibitors of carotene synthesis, and quantify the level of susceptibility of the species, through dose-response curves; (iii) determine, by using 14C-herbicide, the absorption and translocation by the species Digitaria nuda and Digitaria ciliaris of herbicides diuron (by leaf), and imazapyr and metribuzin (by root). The identification of the crabgrass species (Digitaria spp) was carry out following a identification key published in the literature. In the study of herbicides efficacy in the control of Digitaria nuda in field conditions, eight herbicide treatments, applied in pre-emergence were used, and the control percentage was evaluated at 15, 30 and 60 days after herbicide application (DAA). The study of herbicide efficacy to control the species Digitaria nuda and Digitaria ciliaris were conducted in greenhouse. Eight herbicide treatments, applied in pre-emergence were used, and the control percentage was evaluated at 14 and 21 days after herbicide application (DAA). The study of the level of tolerance was conducted in the greenhouse of the Department of Crop Science, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba/SP – Brazil, through dose-response curves; The study of absorption and translocation were conducted in a growth chamber, and the 14C-herbicide analysis was done in the Laboratory of Ecotoxicology of the Center of Nuclear Energy Applied to Agriculture, Piracicaba/SP, Brazil, using 14C-herbicide, measuring radioactivity in different plant parts. The results allowed to conclud that: (i) the specie Digitaria nuda was selected by repetitive applications of the herbicides used in the control of the crabgrass in the sugarcane crop, showing that the specie is more tolerant to the herbicides of the chemical group of imidazolinone and substituted urea, when compared to Digitaria ciliaris; (ii) From the dose-response curves study, it was observed that Digitaria nuda showed more tolerance than Digitaria ciliaris to the herbicides diuron, imazapyr and tebuthiuron; (iii) The absorption and translocation were not the mechanism responsible for the tolerance showed by Digitaria nuda to the herbicides diuron and imazapyr.

Farmland bird populations in Europe have been in decline for a long time. Agricultural intensification and growing a large share of crops that provide suboptimal breeding habitat could be the main causes of the observed decline. To explore these possible drivers, I focused on population trends of farmland bird species in different habitats in the Czech Republic over the periods 1982-1990 and 1990-2010. Specifically, I focused on the variability in trends within each species in respect to the differences in landscape management between the lowlands and mid-altitude areas before and after 1990. The expected effect of intensive farming in the lowlands until 1990 was reflected by a strong decline in populations of Northern Lapwing and Yellowhammer. The influence of less intensive farming in mid-altitude areas causing moderate population decline was confirmed rather by shrubs and trees species than farmland specialists. After 1990, less intensive farming in the lowlands should reduce the decline, which may have occurred, but compelling comparison of population trends between the two time periods was not possible for most species due to the lack of data. On the contrary, more intensive population decline in mid-altitudes after 1990, which should be the response to arable land abandonment, was not...

This study investigated the effects of a seasonally variable forage resource on herbivore population dynamics. This involved estimating the relative importance of environmental conditions, and the accessible and used forage resources, at different stages of the seasonal cycle to herbivores in different life-stages and at different points in the reproductive cycle. This study was carried out in the Richtersveld region in South Africa, using goats kept by semi-nomadic Nama pastoralists. In the main study site, the Richtersveld National Park (RNP), herd movements follow a general seasonal migratory pattern: herds are based in the riparian zone of the Orange River during the dry season, and on plains away from the river in the wet season. Over 800 uniquely marked female goats in three life-stages (adults, yearlings and kids) were monitored over a three year period (2007 to 2009). These goats were weighed at 2 - 3 month intervals to provide an estimate of body condition. Browse availability in the riparian zone was estimated using measurements at an individual branch-level and a whole tree-level. FPAR satellite imagery was used to estimate forage abundance outside the riparian zone. Goat density was mapped for each week of the study using census data and the herd positions. Goat body condition, survival rates and fecundity rates for each life-stage were modelled as a response to forage availability, density and climatic conditions. The riparian zone in the RNP was found to function as the key resource of the RNP goat population. Forage depletion by goat browsing resulted in a negative feedback on goat body condition. This decline in body condition was directly related to lower adult survival over the dry season. Fecundity was also most influenced by dry season conditions through the negative effect of poor body condition on pregnancy rates and birth rates. Asymmetric competition between life-stages, resulting from the riparian browse profile being depleted from the bottom-up, was predicted to have a strong effect on goat demography by contributing to differences in body condition and survival rates between life-stages. Wet season conditions appeared to have little effect on goat population dynamics, either through increased neonate survival or through a mass carry-over effect influencing dry season survival. Goat body condition and vital rates were compared between the RNP and the neighbouring Kuboes rangeland, which does not have access to the Orange River, to assess the impact of differences in their dry season forage resource. The long-term size and variability of the livestock population in the RNP was also compared with livestock dynamics in Paulshoek, a rangeland 250 km south east of the RNP. The a priori predictions of relative population dynamics in each region, based on perceived differences in the nature of the key resource in each region, were largely supported.

This research focused on population dynamics of two gelatinous zooplankters (Aequorea & Pyrosoma atlanticum) in the northern California Current to assess their relationship to environmental conditions and role in the pelagic ecosystem. Data collected since 1999 showed seasonal and interannual fluctuations in the abundance and distribution of Aequorea in the NCC, with a positive correlation with sea surface temperature and salinity. Pyrosoma atlanticum, which are typically found in tropical waters, have only been observed in high abundances in the NCC since 2014 and their role in the pelagic ecosystem is not well understood. Pyrosome abundance related to in situ environmental variables showed a positive correlation with warmer SST. We also used fatty acids as trophic markers to better understand pyrosome trophic ecology in the NCC. FA biomarkers suggest that pyrosomes have a broad phytoplankton diet, which may indicate an ability to inhabit warmer, lower nutrient zones. / 2020-01-11

Moose in Utah represent the southernmost naturally occurring populations of moose in the world. Concerns over possible numeric declines and a paucity of baseline data on moose in the state prompted the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources to initiate a study of moose demography in collaboration with Utah State University. The objectives of this study were to 1) determine reproductive rates of moose in Utah and the factors which influence them, and 2) combine aerial count data from multiple management units within the state to identify factors which influence interannual variation in population growth rates. We constructed generalized linear models to relate maternal body condition and age to reproductive success. We found that body condition (P = 0.01) and age (P = 0.02) contributed significantly to the probability of pregnancy and the best model describing this relationship was nonlinear. Body condition also related positively to subsequent calving (P = 0.08) and recruitment (P = 0.05), but model selection suggested the relationship for these metrics was best described by linear models. A meta-analysis of moose reproductive rates in North America suggested that reproductive rates declined significantly with latitude (P ≤ 0.01), i.e. as populations approached their southern range limit. We used Bayesian state-space models to combine moose count data from different management units to estimate statewide population dynamics between 1958 and 2013. This approach incorporated uncertainty in population counts arising from observation error. Population density and warm winter temperatures negatively influenced population growth rate with a high degree of confidence; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals for these variables did not overlap zero. Short-term projections of moose abundance in the state suggested that the population will likely remain stable despite projected increases in winter temperature. Results from this study will aid managers in achieving management objectives as well as future decision making. The unique characteristics of the population also have application toward understanding the dynamics of populations of cold-adapted species at their southern range limit.

Effective conservation strategies for imperiled species require an understanding of processes that influence fitness throughout the organism's life cycle and across the range of habitats needed to complete that cycle. I evaluated factors that affect population viability of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened freshwater char species, throughout individual life stages and over the entire life cycle. I assessed the relationship between bull trout egg incubation success and environmental variables. Egg survival was negatively related to the percent of fine sediment in redds and positively related to hydraulic conductivity and the strength of downwelling. Next, I quantified juvenile bull trout survival rates and described movement patterns for this life stage. Juvenile bull trout emigrated from natal headwaters into larger rivers throughout the entire year and across a range of sizes. Estimates of juvenile survival rates improved dramatically when emigration was incorporated into the analysis. I integrated my observations of bull trout survival, growth, and movement to create a life-cycle model, which I used to better understand how populations respond to changes in specific demographic rates. Bull trout populations were particularly sensitive to changes in juvenile growth and survival. The relative effect of changes to fertility rates and adult survival varied depending upon whether a population was composed primarily of large, migratory, or smaller, resident individuals. Dispersal helped to lower the probability of extinction for small or declining populations when neighboring populations were stable. My research demonstrates that bull trout require access to habitats throughout entire watersheds to maintain population viability. My results suggest that limiting anthropogenic sources of fine sediment and maintaining areas of channel complexity that promote downwelling can be important for bull trout embryo survival. Management decisions should also consider the diverse behavior of juvenile bull trout and the wide range of habitat they use. Additionally, connectivity between populations is likely to be important for declining populations to persist. The diversity of life-history strategies expressed by bull trout helps maintain demographic stability within and among populations. As such, preservation of habitat integrity and full life-history diversity is imperative for conservation and recovery of bull trout populations range-wide.

The New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife (NJDFW), in collaboration with Bear Trust International, presented us an opportunity to examine a long-term (33 years) American black bear (Ursus americanus) data set from northwestern New Jersey (NJ), USA. State agencies continue to grapple with uncertainty about the efficacy of socially divisive management actions such as recreational harvest and lethal control as tools to reduce escalating human-bear conflicts. We applied multistate capture-reencounter models to a large sample of black bear captures (>5,000) and dead recoveries (>1,300) between 1981 – 2014 to estimate cause-specific mortality and spatial dynamics between wildland and anthropogenic habitats. Additionally, we assessed temporal correlations between more than 26,500 reported human–black bear interactions and mortality rates. Adult females were twice as likely (0.163 ± 0.014) as males (0.087 ± 0.012) to be harvested, and cubs (0.444 ± 0.025) and yearlings (0.372 ± 0.022) had a high probability of dying, primarily from vehicle strikes. Nuisance behaviors reported declined with increasing harvest and lethal management (P = 0.028, R2 = 0.338). Adult bears previously designated as a nuisance and/or threat (hereafter, “problem”) were more likely to be harvested (0.176 ± 0.025) than those with no conflict history (0.109 ± 0.010). Combined legal kills and vehicle strikes, the two greatest mortality causes for marked bears, occurred significantly less than expected per unit area in urban and agricultural areas, and more than expected in the wildland-urban interface and wildland habitats. Across all age-classes, problem bears were significantly more likely to transition to anthropogenic habitats, yet they died at lower rates than conspecifics with no history of conflict in wildlands. Cubs and yearlings died at significantly higher rates than adults in the risky interface habitat, corroborating independent estimates of their increased susceptibility to harvest and vehicle strikes. Ultimately, wildland habitats represented a population source (λ = 1.133) and anthropogenic habitats a sink (λ = 0.945). Harvest represents an important management tool to help meet population targets and decrease human-bear conflicts by disproportionately removing problem bears.

Doctor of Philosophy / The population size and range of giraffe Giraffa camelopardalis have been greatly reduced in Africa in the past century, resulting in geographical isolation of local populations and some herds surviving at the edge of the species’ preferred range. Numerous factors have contributed to these declines, but historical analysis indicates that habitat loss and fragmentation, human encroachment, disease and poaching are the main threatening processes. These processes can be expected to continue to impact on giraffe populations, particularly as human populations grow and needs for land and resources increase. This study used field data and laboratory analyses to investigate the taxonomy, behaviour and ecology of desert-dwelling giraffe Giraffa camelopardalis angolensis in the northern Namib Desert. This population resides at the extreme of the giraffe’s range. My research also complements the community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) program of the Namibian government, and provides baseline data on the current population status and structure of giraffe in the Kunene Region. The field data, genetic, habitat and forage samples used in this study were collected by myself and a number of research assistants over a period of two years (2001 to 2003), following preliminary research that I undertook between 1999 and 2001. Laboratory analysis of genetic samples was conducted by Dr R. Brenneman and his team at Henry Doorly Zoo, Omaha, NB., as well as by Mr D. Brown at UCLA, CA. Mr W. Gawa!nab and his team at the agricultural laboratory, Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Affairs, Namibia, conducted chemical analyses on plant samples that form part of the giraffe’s diet. The genetic architecture of Namibian giraffe was investigated, including the samples from the desert-dwelling giraffe of the northern Namib Desert and giraffe from Etosha National Park. The results were compared with genetic profiles of giraffe subspecies throughout Africa, but in particular with G. c. giraffa which is the currently-accepted nomenclature of the Namibian giraffe. Results indicated that the Namibian giraffe has five unique haplotypes and is genetically distinct from G. c. giraffa or any other extant subspecies; it is considered here, tentatively, to represent G. c. angolensis. Furthermore, the Namibian Abstract iv giraffe has been separated from other populations for an extended period. Some gene flow has occurred between the desert-dwelling and Etosha NP giraffe population, and can be attributed to recent translocations between these regions. Within the study region, a sharing of haplotypes between three studied subpopulations indicated gene flow among giraffe throughout the northern Namib Desert, and this was confirmed by field-based monitoring. Taken together, these findings suggest that Namibian giraffe should be viewed as important for the conservation of overall genetic variation within Giraffa camelopardalis, although further investigation into the taxonomy of the Namibian form is warranted. Following these findings, I then investigated the behaviour and ecology of the desert-dwelling giraffe. As no previous study has been published on the ecology of G. c. angolensis, there is an information gap in our knowledge of this subspecies. One hundred and fifty six giraffe were identified individually using field-based identification methods and digital imagery. An assessment of the population structure and dynamics indicated marked variation in numbers, sex and age structure, herd structure and densities between three study areas. These variations possibly arose from differences in study area size, aridity, availability of forage and human impacts. I also investigated levels of associations between giraffe within the population using a simple ratio technique, and observed that increased association occurred in smaller populations; there appeared to be a matrilineal social structure. In one bull-biased population, a higher degree of association between bulls was observed compared to bulls in the other two populations. To gain further insight into the distribution and range of giraffe, I collected GPS locations from a combination of field-based monitoring and GPS satellite collars. The GPS satellite collars were the first trial of this technology on giraffe in Africa. Using Range Manager, a MapInfo animal location analysis extension program, I estimated 100% and 95% minimum convex polygon for daily, monthly and annual home range sizes of giraffe in the northern Namib Desert. Giraffe were observed to have large home ranges, with the largest individual range for a bull, Africa-wide, being recorded in this study. Large home ranges correlated with low population density, reduced diversity of forage and, in bulls, increased search areas for receptive cows. Giraffe movements occurred predominantly along riparian woodlands, although seasonal use of other habitats was recorded. Observations Abstract v Abstract vi and data from four GPS satellite-collared giraffe provided high-resolution data on daily movements, and indicated a pattern of highly biphasic movement behaviour that correlated with ambient temperatures. Diurnal activity budgets varied between the sexes, with cows spending more time feeding and resting, while bulls walked and ruminated more frequently. Juveniles rested more often than other giraffe. Seasonal variation in activity budgets was evident, perhaps reflecting use of an energy maximiser strategy for cows and an energy minimiser strategy for bulls. The establishment of artificial water points in the Hoanib River during the study period appeared to alter the seeming independence of giraffe on water in the northern Namib Desert, and also resulted in small-scale shifts in use of the riparian woodland by elephant. To investigate the diet of giraffe, I observed animals feeding in the field and also carried out laboratory analyses of the chemical content of preferred plant species. Seasonal changes in the abundance, moisture and protein content of available food plants correlated with shifts in the diet of giraffe. Giraffe impacted on their preferred forage source, Faidherbia albida, causing distinct structural changes in the individual plants and the F. albida population. This impact, combined with elephant damage and seasonal flood events, has resulted in a shift in the age structure and dynamics of the F. albida population over the past two decades. Finally, I present a brief overview on the history of conservation and management in the Kunene Region. The established CBNRM program provides a baseline for future wildlife conservation and management, of which the desert-dwelling giraffe could be an integral component for non-consumptive tourism. Long-term research on the population’s status, range, behaviour, social structure, habitat requirements, and ecology would help to provide a better understanding of the giraffe’s adaptation to the arid environment, while focussed legislation would enable increased control of communal lands and continue to benefit community-based conservancies.

The ability of feral herbivores to reduce the amount of food available to domestic livestock has rarely been quantified. This thesis seeks to examine the degree to which feral goats (Capra hircus) reduce the availability of pasture and shrub biomass for other herbivores. The interaction between feral goat populations and their food supply will be explored using a modelling approach. In addition to this it will also examine the cost of controlling goats and attempt to identify the cost efficient target densities for control operations. The implications of this information for management will be discussed. There are two ways an animal population can interact with its food supply, through: (1) intrinsic food shortages, and (2) extrinsic food shortages. Intrinsic food shortages occur when a negative feed-back loop exists between the animal population and their food supply. This means the animals affect the availability of their food and their food supply affects the dynamics of the animal population. Since the animals are affecting their own food supply it could be said that they will also affect the availability of that food to other herbivores if they consume the same species. Extrinsic food shortages occur when there is no feed-back from the animals to their food supply. Food availability is determined by extrinsic factors such as rainfall and is unaffected by the animal population. To determine how feral goats interact with their food supply several models will be examined, and these include: (1) single species models which use data from the animal population only. These have historically been used to identify density dependence which is commonly caused by the animal population being regulated through their food supply in the case of large herbivores, and (2) trophic models which incorporate data from at least two trophic levels in an ecosystem, in this case those being the animal population and the vegetation they are thought to consume. These models allow a more direct examination of the relationship between the feral goat population and their food supply. The various models were fitted to data collected on the field sites and the following results were obtained: (1) the dynamics of the feral goat populations could not be represented by single-species models. This was most probably due to the stochastic environment in which they lived causing the level of density dependence experienced by the goats to vary greatly masking its presence. (2) the rate of increase of the goat population could be predicted by the numerical response of rate of increase to pasture biomass. This demonstrated that food availability influenced the dynamics of the goat population. (3) goat density affected the availability of some species of shrub biomass. There was, however, no response seen in the availability of pasture species to changes in goat density. Since the study was conducted during a drought this is in agreement with other studies which indicated that goats will primarily browse during dry spells but switch to pasture species when conditions improve following rainfall. These results indicate that a negative feed-back loop does exist between feral goat populations and their food supply since the goats affected the availability of some shrub species and so they suffer intrinsic food shortages. This means goats have the ability to reduce the availability of food to other herbivores providing both are eating the same species. Cost-efficiency analysis showed that the cost of removing individual feral goats increases exponentially as density decreases because the search time per animal becomes greater. This relationship was used to construct a model that predicted the cost of achieving a target density. The model describing cost of control over density was also combined with a productivity model based on the numerical response of feral goats to pasture biomass to predict the cost of maintaining target densities under different environmental conditions. Using these models the most cost-efficient density identified was 11 goats/km2. From this study we can make the following conclusions: (1) feral goats have the ability to reduce the amount of shrub biomass available to other herbivores during dry conditions (2) their ability to influence the availability of pasture species remains unknown (3) given the cost of initial and ongoing control and the minimal benefits that result it would be difficult to justify controlling goats during a drought on the field sites.

Current deployments of mobile commerce focus mostly on digital content. However, mobile commerce will grow rapidly with the increased use of portable devices such as cellular phones and personal digital assistants (PDA), increased network bandwidth, and the availability of a wider range of mobile commerce services and transactions. As the revenue generated from mobile commerce is expected to skyrocket in the coming years, strategists are turning their attention to untapped emerging markets in the developing countries. Understanding how mobile commerce will develop in countries like China, where huge market potential exists, is of paramount importance in order to develop effective strategies that will positively affect its course. Modelling the diffusion of mobile commerce in a country is a difficult task due to the non-linear, complex and uncertain nature of its operating environment. A System Dynamics approach is more appropriate to model such a complex system. The main objective of this study is to illustrate the process of developing System Dynamics models for simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China by using a subset of the factors involved. In order to achieve this objective, the Chinese mobile commerce was modelled as the interaction of three subsystems, namely: population evolution in China; mobile commerce diffusion; and the influence from the provision of mobile commerce terminals (MCT) on mobile commerce diffusion. Each subsystem was modelled by identifying the factors influencing its development as well as the interactions between the factors. The subsystems were calibrated using historical and forecasted data whenever they were available. The validation of the subsystems was also performed through extensive sensitivity analysis. The complete model was used for experimenting with some typical Chinese mobile commerce scenarios for the purpose of analysing mobile commerce trends and designing strategies to exert positive influences on those trends. The simulation of the submodels provided useful insights into their respective areas for controlling their development. Simulation of the population development submodel showed that, in addition to family planning policies, urbanisation rates and life quality were important factors that significantly influenced population dynamics in China. Simulation of the mobile commerce diffusion submodel showed that the time when mobile commerce is implemented will significantly influence its market expansion speed i.e. the later mobile commerce is implemented, the quicker the market will expand. The existence of floating populations in China will be a big advantage in starting up the rural market. However, if mobile commerce is implemented too late, the penetration in rural areas will be negligible. Simulation of the MCT provision submodel showed the importance of opening the Chinese market to foreign suppliers and the coordination of strategies regarding the design and supply of MCTs with strategies for the growth of mobile commerce in China. This study is a first attempt to simulate the diffusion of mobile commerce in China using System Dynamics. The results obtained showed that the models developed were useful for understanding and controlling the future diffusion of mobile commerce in China.