<p> This paper applies a cohort survival model to an age-and sex-disagqregated 1985 'base' population of Ancaster. Using a fortran programme, low, high, and 'most probable' projections were made for a 1986 to 2001 time horizon. The migration component was found to be the single most important projection variable. Consequently, only migration was varied between the three sets of projections. In analyzing migration for Ancaster, we identified a persistent trend in net migration over the 1971 to 1985 period. This finding allowed us to apply the 1985 male and female age profiles of net migration to the in-migrants. Thus, this study more accurately quantified net Migration than previous studies. </p> / Thesis / Bachelor of Arts (BA)

Moravskoslezský region population forecast to 2050 Abstract The main goal of this thesis is to calculate Moravskoslezský region population forecast to 2050 and show how future population growth will likely be in the next decades. It includes a detailed population development analysis which is an important part of this thesis. Moravskoslezský region is still one of the most populous regions of Czechia, despite of natural decrease and negative net migration in past 21 years (except 2007 and 2008). Based on the analysis, we can assume that population decline will continue in the future and population forecast results confirm this hypothesis. Declining population size will be followed by significant age-structure changes in population and progressive demographic ageing. From the perspective of future population development Moravskoslezský region will face brand new situations and related problems. Keywords: population forecast, Moravskoslezský region, analysis of population development, age structure, fertility, mortality, migration, regional development, cohort-component method

Analysis of the secondary education in the Vysočina Region in context of demographic development Abstract The aim of this thesis is to show the link between the demographic development and the development of the educational system, particularly on the example of the demographic development of the Vysočina Region and its impact on the secondary education in this region. The Vysočina Region was chosen because it is characterized by numerous specifics that distinguish it from other regions (e.g. a large number of small municipalities, rural and traditional characteristics of the region and lower education attainment of the population). Firstly, the current demographic development of the region is evaluated, secondly the development of the educational system is evaluated in its context. Afterwards, we examine the development of the number of secondary schools, the structure of their fields of education and their territorial distribution in the region. We also evaluate the current capacity of the secondary schools. The core of the analysis is the creation of derived forecast of the number of pupils in the various districts of the region through the use of rates of participation in secondary education in the districts. Because the estimate is carried out at the district level, it is possible to take into account...