published_or_final_version / Zoology / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

This study is an application of production-cost duality theory. Duality theory is reviewed for the competitive and rate-of-return regulated firm. The cost function is developed for the nuclear electric power generating industry of the United States using capital, fuel and labor factor inputs. A comparison is made between the Generalized Box-Cox (GBC) and Fourier Flexible (FF) functional forms. The GBC functional form nests the Generalized Leontief, Generalized Square Root Quadratic and Translog functional forms, and is based upon a second-order Taylor-series expansion. The FF form follows from a Fourier-series expansion in sine and cosine terms using the Sobolev norm as the goodness of fit measure. The Sobolev norm takes into account first and second derivatives. The cost function and two factor shares are estimated as a system of equations using maximum likehood techniques, with Additive Standard Normal and Logistic Normal error distributions. In summary, none of the special cases of the GBC function form are accepted. Homotheticity of the underlying production technology can be rejected for both the GBC and FF forms, leaving only the unrestricted versions supported by the data. Residual analysis indicates a slight improvement in skewness and kurtosis for univariate and multivariate cases when the Logistic Normal distribution is used.

The focal point of the quality of life associated with the United States is a strong economy. Growth in the economy means growth in employment. The establishment of stringent environmental legislation is now a reality. However, those responsible for enacting environmental laws, as well intentioned as they may be, must strive to assess the socio-economic consequences of their actions so that the true net benefit of the environmental legislation is established. The main effort in this research centers around the analysis of how a particular resource, energy (i.e., energy in the form of electric power derived from strip-mined coal) is embedded in the economic growth of the Southwest. The basic econometric tool that has been utilized is a regional input-output model which evolved from a California-Arizona linked input-output model developed by H. O. Carter and D. Ireri. The decision space developed, which effectively acted as a mechanism for restricting coal-fired power availability in future years, was based on a schedule of electric energy capacity additions as delineated by the U.S. Department of Interior's Southwest Energy Study. The regional economic analysis, described in Chapter 5 of this dissertation, suggests there is a definite relationship between coal-fired power availability and regional economic growth in the Southwest. Furthermore, the estimates of incremental decreases in regional economic activity associated with certain levels of decreased coal-fired power development are of such a magnitude that one could characterize the relationship as very significant.

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Climate change is one of the greatest and probably most challenging environmental, social and economical threats facing the world this century. Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of significant quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which remain in the atmosphere for long periods of time and intensify the natural greenhouse effect. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, are likely to accelerate the rate of climate change. Concerns are growing about how increases in CO2 caused by human activities are contributing to the natural greenhouse effect and raising the Earth's average temperature. Electricity generation, especially from fossil fuel, and petroleum industries contribute the most to greenhouse gases emissions in Canada. As of 2004, they contributed to about 37% of total (GHGs). Risks of climate change and subsequent future environmental regulations are pressing electricity and petroleum refining industries to minimize their greenhouse gas emissions, mainly CO2. Fossil fuel power plants and refineries are now being challenged to comply with the Kyoto protocol by the United Nations Framework Convention and Climate Change (UNFCC). Canada???s target is a reduction in CO2 emissions of 6% from 1990 level. In this thesis, an optimization approach for integrating planning and CO2 reduction is developed for electricity and refinery sectors. Three different CO2 mitigation options are considered in each case. For the electricity sector, these mitigation options were 1) fuel balancing (optimal adjustment of the operation of existing generating stations to reduce CO2 emissions without making structural changes to the fleet), 2) fuel switching (switching from carbon intensive fuel to less carbon intensive fuel, essentially switching from coal to natural gas) and 3) implementing different technologies for efficiency improvement. The optimization model takes into account meeting electricity demand and achieving a certain CO2 reduction target at a minimum overall cost. The model was formulated as a Mixed Integer Non Linear Program (MINLP) and was implemented in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System). Exact linearization techniques were employed to facilitate solution development. The computer program was capable of determining the best strategy or mix of strategies to meet a certain CO2 reduction target at minimum cost. The model was illustrated on a case study for Ontario Power Generation (OPG) fleet. The results showed that for 1% CO2 reduction target, only fuel balancing need to be applied and even a decrease of about 1.3% in overall cost was obtained. The optimizer chose to increase production from all non fossil fuel power plants and to decrease production from natural gas power plant. This is because natural gas is the most expensive fuel that OPG uses. For higher reduction targets, it was necessary to implement fuel switching. For 30% reduction, for example, 11 boilers out of 27 (4 are already natural gas) are switched from coal to natural gas and the cost increases by about 13%. Applying efficiency improvement technologies such as installing new turbine blades was a good option only at small reduction targets. As the reduction target increases, the optimizer chose not to implement efficiency improvement technologies and only fuel switching was the best option to select in addition to fuel balancing. For the refinery sector, a similar strategy was applied. An optimization model was developed to maximize profit from selling final products and to meet a given CO2 reduction target with products demand and specifications. Three CO2 mitigation options were considered and these were: 1) balancing that implies the increase in production from units that emit less CO2 emissions provided that demand is met, 2) fuel switching that involves switching from current carbon intensive fuel to less carbon intensive fuel such as natural gas, 3) implementation of CO2 capture technologies. Chemical absorption (MEA) process was used as the capture process. Prior to the development of the refinery planning model, a sub-model was developed for each unit in a refinery layout. Then, the sub-models were integrated into a master planning model to meet final products demand and specifications with the objective of maximizing profit without CO2 mitigation options. The model was solved first as a Non Linear Program (NLP). Then, binary variables representing the existence or no existence of fuel switching option and CO2 capture processes were introduced into the model. The model was formulated as a Mixed Integer Non Linear Program (MINLP), coded in GAMS, and applied to different case studies. The results showed that the refinery planning model tends to produce more from the most profitable product, which is gasoline, and chose to blend products into the most profitable pool unless the demand needs to be satisfied for certain other products. The model, for example, chose to send kerosene from the diesel hydrotreater to the kerosene pool and not to the diesel pool since kerosene has higher selling value than diesel. When CO2 mitigation options were introduced into the model, only 0.4% CO2 reduction was achieved by simply decreasing production from the hydrocracker (HC) unit and increasing production from the fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC) unit. This was done because the FCC unit tends to emit less CO2 compared to the HC unit. At higher reduction target such as 1%, fuel switching was implemented by choosing the FCC to run with natural gas. The profit decreased slightly because of the retrofit cost of switching. It was noticed also that fuel switching can achieve a maximum of 30% reduction in CO2 emissions. This was achieved by switching all units to run with natural gas that emits less CO2 emissions. For a reduction target higher than 30%, CO2 capture technologies need to be applied. For 60% reduction, the optimization chose to switch three units (out of 8) and to capture CO2 emissions coming from four units. Only the FCC remained unchanged. A decrease in the profit was noticed as the reduction target increases since more units need to be switched and more CO2 need to be captured. The results showed that adding sequestration cost further decreased the profit. However, it was noticed that the selling price of final products had the most effect on the profit. An increase of 20%, for example, in final products??? prices, leads to a 10% increase in profit even when the CO2 reduction target was as high as 80%. When the retrofit cost for switching and capture was decreased by 30%, the effect on the profit was noticed only at higher reduction targets since more units were switched and more CO2 capture units were implemented

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Magíster en Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Mención Eléctrica / Las energías renovables penetran cada vez más en los sistemas de redes eléctricas interconectados, por lo que surgen nuevos retos para los operadores con el fin de mantener su fiabilidad en circunstancias inciertas. La natural intermitencia de las ENRC juega un papel importante ya que produce un incremento en los requerimientos de rampa del sistema y de reserva operativa, además de un mayor ciclaje de las unidades térmicas. En consecuencia, para integrar altos niveles de generación renovable de manera eficiente es necesario incluir tecnologías de almacenamiento que aumenten la flexibilidad del sistema. El objetivo de la presente tesis es evaluar el impacto en los costos globales de operación del Sistema Interconectado del Norte Grande y los ingresos percibidos por una central PHSS bajo un modelo de operación de arbitraje con diferentes tasas de penetración de ENRC. Se propuso una metodología para estudiar la sensibilidad del sistema ante diferentes tasas de penetración de ENRC-Capacidades de PHSS, entre las cuales se evaluaron 50MW, 100MW y 200MW, todas con una capacidad de almacenamiento de 8 horas. También se desarrolló un programa linear entero mixto que incorpora la operación de las centrales PHSS en un sistema tipo pool obligatorio. Además se introdujeron los modelos de las tecnologías existentes, haciendo énfasis en sus principales restricciones de operación, como máximos y mínimos técnicos; tiempos mínimos de operación y de apagado entre operación, costo de encendido y apagado, aportes máximos de reserva para el control primario y reserva en giro. Los resultados indican que el factor de penetración de ENRC es determinante para analizar los beneficios que prestan las PHSS. Se calcularon las curvas de ahorro de costos del sistema e ingresos percibidos, destacando que al superar una penetración del 20% de ENRC se hacen atractiva su implementación. Los ahorros en la operación alcanzan el 1.6%, 3.2% y 6.3% para las PHSS de 50 MW, 100MW y 200MW, respectivamente, al llegar a una penetración mayor del 30%. Adicionalmente se demuestra que las centrales PHSS pueden llegar a tener pérdidas en el momento que se aplana la curva de costos marginales debido a la eficiencia de esta tecnología. En el ámbito de la investigación futura se sugiere realizar un modelo que permita evaluar la operación de las PHSS bajo un despacho autónomo que maximice sus utilidades, dentro de un mercado tipo pool obligatorio.

M.Ing. / The dissertation is an investigation on the implementation of new technologies (five off) in a coal pulverising with main aim to optimise mill maintenance interventions. The technologies in question are: • Stationary air throat replaced with a rotating throat assembly. • Hydro-pneumatic mill loading cylinders replaced with airbags. • Classifier cone modification. • Introduction of triton material for the mill spider guide plates. • High chrome mill grinding balls. Every maintenance intervention, even if planned, negatively affects a plant’s availability and reliability. A Babcock and Wilcox (B&W) at Kriel power station (ESKOM) was used for the testing of the mentioned technologies. The mill model/size is a B&W 10.8E mill. The aim of the introduction of new technology on a mill is to optimise the period between required maintenance activities. A higher availability will assist in achieving good plant maintenance performance indicators. It needs to be noted that the dissertation focussed on the financial and technical parameters of a specific modification. This in an effort to increase uptime and reduce costs as part of a business drive for bigger profit margins. The new technologies tested were thus evaluated from a technical and financial point of view. Each technology was implemented at different time periods and nowhere was any tests performed in parallel on a single mill. To get approval from an investment committee for release of money for tests/modifications, technical and financial assumptions need to be made regarding the performance parameters of the modification/change. Once a modification is being tested, actual plant data can be used as inputs into the execution phase of the modification as assumptions can be replaced with test data. A financial model was developed to “test” the financial feasibility of the proposed changes/modifications. With new technology successful implemented in the plant the current maintenance strategies for maintenance interventions can be re-evaluated as the proposed modifications removed historic barriers that determined the current used based maintenance intervals. An example is where a mill is taken from service to replace or repair the stationary air throat (typically every 5 000 operating hours). With the newly applied technology (rotating throat assemblies), there is no need for maintenance interventions every 5 000hrs as a rotating throat assembly can run without major interventions for 60 000hrs.

M.Phil. (Energy Studies) / Nodal diffusion methods are often used to calculate the distribution of neutrons in a nuclear reactor core. They require few-group homogenized neutron cross sections for every heterogeneous sub-region of the core. The homogenized cross sections are pre-calculated at various reactor states and represented in a way that facilitates the reconstruction of cross sections at other possible states. In this study a number of such representations were built for the homogenized cross sections of a MOX (mixed oxide) fuel assembly via hierarchical Lagrange interpolation on Clenshaw-Curtis sparse grids. These cross sections were represented as a function of various thermal hydraulic and material composition parameters of a pressurized water reactor core (i.e. burnup, soluble boron concentration, fuel temperature, moderator temperature and moderator density), which are generally referred to as state parameters. Representations were produced for the homogenized cross sections of a number of individual isotopes, as well as the e ective (lumped) cross section of all the materials in the assembly. This was done for both two and six energy groups. Additionally, two sets of state parameter intervals were considered for each of the group structures. The first set of intervals was chosen to correspond to conditions that may be encountered during day-to-day reactor operations. The second set of intervals was chosen to be applicable to the simulation of accident scenarios and therefore have wider ranges for fuel temperature, moderator temperature and moderator density.

This work investigates the factors which might influence public opinion regarding the nuclear power industry, and the accuracy of existing theories about that opinion. West Cumbrian opinion is of particular interest, because the area has the highest concentration of the nuclear power industry in the UK, and might thereby represent a potentially 'nuclear-friendly' area which would contrast with the increasing scepticism reported in the rest of the country, and indeed across much of the industrialised world. The factors which may influence public opinion are analyzed in three ways. Firstly, historical factors are presented in an account of the development of the nuclear power industry. Next, the socio-economic situation and traditions of West Cumbria are examined, in order to assess particular local influences on public opinion. Thirdly, the public relations methods of important local and national groups are examined in the light of public relations theories, in order to assess the ability of such groups to influence public opinion (a new avenue of research related to nuclear power). In order to discover the state of West Cumbrian opinion in 1994, and to assess the impact of the above factors upon that opinion, a survey was conducted using a representative sample of the population of Cockermouth, chosen as a typical Cumbrian town. The scope of questions employed in previous studies was broadened to analyze attitudes towards antinuclear groups as well as towards the industry. Great attention was paid to the methodology of the new survey, the findings of which were analyzed in the light of a comparative analysis of existing research and theories related to West Cumbrian opinion. Local opinion was contrasted with that of a national 'public' consisting of political, environmental and energy orientated organizations. This study confirmed some previously held ideas about public opinion, but also found several differences which suggest flaws in the methodology of previous research. One very important finding was that it is important not to overstate the existence of controversy surrounding the nuclear industry in West Cumbria. Overall, the West Cumbrian population appeared to be relatively nuclear friendly, but not as strongly pro-nuclear as might have been thought. A surprisingly large number of people displayed a lack of knowledge about the subject, and many showed feelings of apathy and alienation. Nuclear power and coal were found to be controversial choices of fuel supply. Wind power received more support and less opposition. Environmental groups were seen to perform a watchdog role, for which they were welcomed in West Cumbria by more people than supported the presence of either BNFL or NIREX. Levels of pOlitical activity amongst local people were low. The particular socio-economic situation in West Cumbria appeared to have had an impact upon local opinion. Support extended to the local industry, and to BNFL in particular, far more than it did to the nuclear industry in general. The insular aspect of West Cumbrian culture has affected attitudes towards those groups perceived as 'outsiders', including the national media and environmental groups. It has also affected attitudes to the industry where public relations campaigns have been targeted at a national rather than a specifically West Cumbrian audience.