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This research has been conducted in order to develop a short-range ensemble numerical weather prediction system over southern Africa using the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). An ensemble prediction system (EPS) combines several individual weather model setups into an average forecast system where each member contributes to the final weather forecast. Four different EPSs were configured and rainfall forecasts simulated for seven days ahead for the summer months of January and February, 2009 and 2010, for high (15 km) and low (50 km) resolution over the southern African domain. Statistical analysis was performed on the forecasts so as to determine which EPS was the most skilful at simulating rainfall. Measurements that were used to determine the skill of the EPSs were: reliability diagrams, relative operating characteristics, the Brier skill score and the root mean square error. The results show that the largest ensemble is consistently the most skilful for all forecasts for both the high and the low resolution cases. The higher resolution forecasts were also seen to be more skilful than the forecasts made at the low resolution. These findings conclude that the largest ensemble at high resolution is the best system to predict rainfall over southern Africa using the CCAM. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / gm2014 / Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology / unrestricted

The Surface Deformation Prediction System (SDPS) program has been developed as an engineering tool for the prediction of subsidence deformation indices through the implementation of an influence function. SDPS provides reliable predictions of mining induced surface displacements, strains, and tilt for varying surface topography. One of the key aspects in obtaining reliable ground deformation prediction is the determination of the edge effect offset. The value assigned to the edge effect corresponds to a virtual offsetting of boundary lines delineating the extracted panel to allow for roof cantilevering over the mined out area. The objective of this thesis is to describe the methods implemented in updating the edge effect offset algorithm within SDPS. Using known geometric equations, the newly developed algorithm provides a more robust calculation of the offset boundary line of the extracted panel for simplistic and complex mining geometries. Assuming that an extracted panel is represented by a closed polyline, the new edge offset algorithm calculates a polyline offset into the extracted panel by the user defined edge effect offset distance. Surface deformations are then calculated using this adjusted panel geometry. The MATLAB® program was utilized for development and testing of the new edge effect offset feature.

The thesis deals with methods for analysis of financial markets, focused on cryptocurrencies. The theoretical part, in a context of virtual currencies, describes block-chain technology, financial indicators and neural networks with recurrent architectures. Main goal is to create a system for giving a recommendation either for buy, or sell the currency. The system consists of designed financial strategy and predicted value of the currency, for which is used financial indicators and LSTM neural network. Tests were performed on Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum historical data from year 2017.

yes / Failure in a cloud system is defined as an even that occurs when the delivered service deviates from the correct intended behavior. As the cloud computing systems continue to grow in scale and complexity, there is an urgent need for cloud service providers (CSP) to guarantee a reliable on-demand resource to their customers in the presence of faults thereby fulfilling their service level agreement (SLA). Component failures in cloud systems are very familiar phenomena. However, large cloud service providers’ data centers should be designed to provide a certain level of availability to the business system. Infrastructure-as-a-service (Iaas) cloud delivery model presents computational resources (CPU and memory), storage resources and networking capacity that ensures high availability in the presence of such failures. The data in-production-faults recorded within a 2 years period has been studied and analyzed from the National Energy Research Scientific computing center (NERSC). Using the real-time data collected from the Computer Failure Data Repository (CFDR), this paper presents the performance of two machine learning (ML) algorithms, Linear Regression (LR) Model and Support Vector Machine (SVM) with a Linear Gaussian kernel for predicting hardware failures in a real-time cloud environment to improve system availability. The performance of the two algorithms have been rigorously evaluated using K-folds cross-validation technique. Furthermore, steps and procedure for future studies has been presented. This research will aid computer hardware companies and cloud service providers (CSP) in designing a reliable fault-tolerant system by providing a better device selection, thereby improving system availability and minimizing unscheduled system downtime.

Arctic sea ice has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent decades, including a substantial reduction in sea ice extent in summer months. Such changes, combined with relatively recent advancements in seasonal (1-12 months) to decadal forecasting, have prompted a rapidly-growing body of research on forecasting Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales. These forecasts are anticipated to benefit a vast array of end-users whose activities are dependent on Arctic sea ice conditions. The research goal of this thesis is to address fundamental challenges pertaining to seasonal forecasts of Arcitc sea ice, with a particular focus placed on improving operational sea ice forecasts in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS). Seasonal forecasts are strongly dependent on the accuracy of observations used as initial condition inputs. A key challenge initializing Arctic sea ice is the sparse availability of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. I present on the development of three statistical models that can be used for estimating Arctic SIT in real time for sea ice forecast initialization. The three statistical models are shown to vary in their ability to capture the recent thinning of sea ice, as well as their ability to capture interannual variations in SIT anomalies; however, each of the models is shown to dramatically improve the representation of SIT compared to the climatological SIT estimates used to initialize CanSIPS. I conduct a thorough assessment of sea ice hindcast skill using the Canadian Climate Model, version 3 (one of two models used in CanSIPS), in which the dependence of hindcast skill on SIT initialization is investigated. From this assessment, it can be concluded that all three statistical models are able to estimate SIT sufficiently to improve hindcast skill relative to the climatological initialization. However, the accuracy with which the initialization fields represent both the thinning of the ice pack over time and interannual variability impacts predictive skill for pan-Arctic sea ice area (SIA) and regional sea ice concentration (SIC), with the most robust improvements obtained with two statistical models that adequately represent both processes. The final goal of this thesis is to improve the quantification of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice coverage. Information regarding forecast uncertainty is crucial for end-users who want to quantify the risk associated with trusting a particular forecast. I develop statistical post-processing methodology for improving probabilistic forecasts of Arctic SIC. The first of these improvements is intended to reduce sampling uncertainty by fitting ensemble SIC forecasts to a parametric probability distribution, namely the zero- and one- inflated beta (BEINF) distribution. It is shown that overall, probabilistic forecast skill is improved using the parametric distribution relative to a simpler count-based approach; however, model biases can degrade this skill improvement. The second of these improvements is the introduction of a novel calibration method, called trend-adjusted quantile mapping (TAQM), that explicitly accounts for SIC trends and is specifically designed for the BEINF distribution. It is shown that applying TAQM greatly reduces model errors, and results in probabilistic forecast skill that generally surpasses that of a climatological reference forecast, and to some degree that of a trend-adjusted climatological reference forecast, particularly at shorter lead times. / Graduate

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:56:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 VictorLCMS_DISSERT.pdf: 2392559 bytes, checksum: f4276b98c00bcaaa7742d7ced860b2b7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-04-19 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient?fico e Tecnol?gico / A serious problem that affects an oil refinery s processing units is the deposition of solid particles or the fouling on the equipments. These residues are naturally present on the oil or are by-products of chemical reactions during its transport. A fouled heat exchanger loses its capacity to adequately heat the oil, needing to be shut down periodically for cleaning. Previous knowledge of the best period to shut down the exchanger may improve the energetic and production efficiency of the plant. In this work we develop a system to predict the fouling on a heat exchanger from the Potiguar Clara Camar?o Refinery, based on data collected in a partnership with Petrobras. Recurrent Neural Networks are used to predict the heat exchanger s flow in future time. This variable is the main indicator of fouling, because its value decreases gradually as the deposits on the tubes reduce their diameter. The prediction could be used to tell when the flow will have decreased under an acceptable value, indicating when the exchanger shutdown for cleaning will be needed / Um s?rio problema que afeta unidades de refino de petr?leo ? a deposi??o e incrusta??o de s?lidos nos equipamentos. Esses res?duos est?o naturalmente presentes no petr?leo ou s?o produtos de rea??es qu?micas durante o seu transporte. Um permutador de calor, quando sujo, perde sua capacidade de aquecer adequadamente o petr?leo, precisando, periodicamente, ser retirado de opera??o, para que possa ser realizada uma limpeza. Informa??es pr?vias do melhor per?odo para realizar as paradas podem melhorar a efici?ncia energ?tica e de produ??o da planta. Esse trabalho desenvolveu um sistema de predi??o da incrusta??o em um permutador da Refinaria Potiguar Clara Camar?o, com base em dados coletados em parceria com a Petrobras. Foram utilizadas redes neurais recorrentes que preveem a vaz?o no permutador em instantes futuros. Essa vari?vel ? o principal indicador da incrusta??o, pois seu valor diminui gradualmente ? medida que os dep?sitos nas paredes dos tubos reduzem seu di?metro. A predi??o pode ser usada para dizer quando a vaz?o ter? ca?do abaixo de um valor satisfat?rio, indicando quando ser? necess?rio retirar o equipamento de opera??o

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River streamflow forecasting is traditionally based on real-time measurements of rainfall over catchments and discharge at the outlet and upstream. These data are processed in mathematical models of varying complexity and allow to obtain accurate predictions for short times. In order to extend the forecast horizon to a few days - to be able to issue early warning - it is necessary to take into account the weather forecasts. However, the latter display the property of sensitivity to initial conditions, and for appropriate risk management, forecasts should therefore be considered in probabilistic terms. Currently, ensemble predictions are made using a numerical weather prediction model with perturbed initial conditions and allow to assess uncertainty. <p><p>The research began by analyzing the meteorological predictions at the medium-range (up to 10-15 days) and their use in hydrological forecasting. Precipitation from the ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used. A semi-distributed hydrological model was used to transform these precipitation forecasts into ensemble streamflow predictions. The performance of these forecasts was analyzed in probabilistic terms. A simple decision model also allowed to compare the relative economic value of hydrological ensemble predictions and some deterministic alternatives. <p><p>Numerical weather prediction models are imperfect. The ensemble forecasts are therefore affected by errors implying the presence of biases and the unreliability of probabilities derived from the ensembles. By comparing the results of these predictions to the corresponding observed data, a statistical model for the correction of forecasts, known as post-processing, has been adapted and shown to improve the performance of probabilistic forecasts of precipitation. This approach is based on retrospective forecasts made by the ECMWF for the past twenty years, providing a sufficient statistical sample. <p><p>Besides the errors related to meteorological forcing, hydrological forecasts also display errors related to initial conditions and to modeling errors (errors in the structure of the hydrological model and in the parameter values). The last stage of the research was therefore to investigate, using simple models, the impact of these different sources of error on the quality of hydrological predictions and to explore the possibility of using hydrological reforecasts for post-processing, themselves based on retrospective precipitation forecasts. <p>/<p>La prévision des débits des rivières se fait traditionnellement sur la base de mesures en temps réel des précipitations sur les bassins-versant et des débits à l'exutoire et en amont. Ces données sont traitées dans des modèles mathématiques de complexité variée et permettent d'obtenir des prévisions précises pour des temps courts. Pour prolonger l'horizon de prévision à quelques jours – afin d'être en mesure d'émettre des alertes précoces – il est nécessaire de prendre en compte les prévisions météorologiques. Cependant celles-ci présentent par nature une dynamique sensible aux erreurs sur les conditions initiales et, par conséquent, pour une gestion appropriée des risques, il faut considérer les prévisions en termes probabilistes. Actuellement, les prévisions d'ensemble sont effectuées à l'aide d'un modèle numérique de prévision du temps avec des conditions initiales perturbées et permettent d'évaluer l'incertitude.<p><p>La recherche a commencé par l'analyse des prévisions météorologiques à moyen-terme (10-15 jours) et leur utilisation pour des prévisions hydrologiques. Les précipitations issues du système de prévisions d'ensemble du Centre Européen pour les Prévisions Météorologiques à Moyen-Terme ont été utilisées. Un modèle hydrologique semi-distribué a permis de traduire ces prévisions de précipitations en prévisions d'ensemble de débits. Les performances de ces prévisions ont été analysées en termes probabilistes. Un modèle de décision simple a également permis de comparer la valeur économique relative des prévisions hydrologiques d'ensemble et d'alternatives déterministes.<p><p>Les modèles numériques de prévision du temps sont imparfaits. Les prévisions d'ensemble sont donc entachées d'erreurs impliquant la présence de biais et un manque de fiabilité des probabilités déduites des ensembles. En comparant les résultats de ces prévisions aux données observées correspondantes, un modèle statistique pour la correction des prévisions, connue sous le nom de post-processing, a été adapté et a permis d'améliorer les performances des prévisions probabilistes des précipitations. Cette approche se base sur des prévisions rétrospectives effectuées par le Centre Européen sur les vingt dernières années, fournissant un échantillon statistique suffisant.<p><p>A côté des erreurs liées au forçage météorologique, les prévisions hydrologiques sont également entachées d'erreurs liées aux conditions initiales et aux erreurs de modélisation (structure du modèle hydrologique et valeur des paramètres). La dernière étape de la recherche a donc consisté à étudier, à l'aide de modèles simples, l'impact de ces différentes sources d'erreur sur la qualité des prévisions hydrologiques et à explorer la possibilité d'utiliser des prévisions hydrologiques rétrospectives pour le post-processing, elles-même basées sur les prévisions rétrospectives des précipitations. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished