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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Eliciting Expert Knowledge for Bayesian Logistic Regression in Species Habitat Modelling

Kynn, Mary January 2005 (has links)
This research aims to develop a process for eliciting expert knowledge and incorporating this knowledge as prior distributions for a Bayesian logistic regression model. This work was motivated by the need for less data reliant methods of modelling species habitat distributions. A comprehensive review of the research from both cognitive psychology and the statistical literature provided specific recommendations for the creation of an elicitation scheme. These were incorporated into the design of a Bayesian logistic regression model and accompanying elicitation scheme. This model and scheme were then implemented as interactive, graphical software called ELICITOR created within the BlackBox Component Pascal environment. This software was specifically written to be compatible with existing Bayesian analysis software, winBUGS as an odd-on component. The model, elicitation scheme and software were evaluated through five case studies of various fauna and flora species. For two of these there were sufficient data for a comparison of expert and data-driven models. The case studies confirmed that expert knowledge can be quantified and formally incorporated into a logistic regression model. Finally, they provide a basis for a thorough discussion of the model, scheme and software extensions and lead to recommendations for elicitation research.

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