abstract: Emerging trends in cyber system security breaches in critical cloud infrastructures show that attackers have abundant resources (human and computing power), expertise and support of large organizations and possible foreign governments. In order to greatly improve the protection of critical cloud infrastructures, incorporation of human behavior is needed to predict potential security breaches in critical cloud infrastructures. To achieve such prediction, it is envisioned to develop a probabilistic modeling approach with the capability of accurately capturing system-wide causal relationship among the observed operational behaviors in the critical cloud infrastructure and accurately capturing probabilistic human (users’) behaviors on subsystems as the subsystems are directly interacting with humans. In our conceptual approach, the system-wide causal relationship can be captured by the Bayesian network, and the probabilistic human behavior in the subsystems can be captured by the Markov Decision Processes. The interactions between the dynamically changing state graphs of Markov Decision Processes and the dynamic causal relationships in Bayesian network are key components in such probabilistic modelling applications. In this thesis, two techniques are presented for supporting the above vision to prediction of potential security breaches in critical cloud infrastructures. The first technique is for evaluation of the conformance of the Bayesian network with the multiple MDPs. The second technique is to evaluate the dynamically changing Bayesian network structure for conformance with the rules of the Bayesian network using a graph checker algorithm. A case study and its simulation are presented to show how the two techniques support the specific parts in our conceptual approach to predicting system-wide security breaches in critical cloud infrastructures. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Computer Science 2015

abstract: Cyber systems, including IoT (Internet of Things), are increasingly being used ubiquitously to vastly improve the efficiency and reduce the cost of critical application areas, such as finance, transportation, defense, and healthcare. Over the past two decades, computing efficiency and hardware cost have dramatically been improved. These improvements have made cyber systems omnipotent, and control many aspects of human lives. Emerging trends in successful cyber system breaches have shown increasing sophistication in attacks and that attackers are no longer limited by resources, including human and computing power. Most existing cyber defense systems for IoT systems have two major issues: (1) they do not incorporate human user behavior(s) and preferences in their approaches, and (2) they do not continuously learn from dynamic environment and effectively adapt to thwart sophisticated cyber-attacks. Consequently, the security solutions generated may not be usable or implementable by the user(s) thereby drastically reducing the effectiveness of these security solutions. In order to address these major issues, a comprehensive approach to securing ubiquitous smart devices in IoT environment by incorporating probabilistic human user behavioral inputs is presented. The approach will include techniques to (1) protect the controller device(s) [smart phone or tablet] by continuously learning and authenticating the legitimate user based on the touch screen finger gestures in the background, without requiring users’ to provide their finger gesture inputs intentionally for training purposes, and (2) efficiently configure IoT devices through controller device(s), in conformance with the probabilistic human user behavior(s) and preferences, to effectively adapt IoT devices to the changing environment. The effectiveness of the approach will be demonstrated with experiments that are based on collected user behavioral data and simulations. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Computer Science 2016