The revaluation of the yuan in July 2005 was described by the Chinese central bank as a change in the currency regime, rather than merely a changed level of the exchange rate. The reform was said to involve a shift away from the fixed exchange rate, a gradual movement towards greater flexibility, and a peg to a basket of currencies. This paper closely examines the post-July Chinese currency regime utilising contemporary ideas in the econometrics of structural change. We find that the yuan has remained pegged to the US dollar, rather than to a basket, and has extremely limited currency flexibility. We find no evidence of structural change in the post-July period, which suggests that there has been no evolution towards greater flexibility. We show a monitoring procedure which will detect future evolution of the currency regime. / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

Ph.D. (Economics) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

M.Comm. (Economic Development and Policy Issues) / The response of the trade balance to changes in currency movements has gained increasing interest among researchers, especially since the fall of the Bretton Woods system. Previous empirical studies that examined the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes in South Africa employed aggregate trade data and provided mixed results. This dissertation uses disaggregated data with specific focus on the manufacturing sector. The purpose is to investigate the short and long run effects of the real exchange rate of the rand on the South African manufacturing trade balance by adopting the elasticity approach of balance of payments adjustment. Using quarterly data from 1995 to 2010, the study seeks to test the existence of the J-curve effect and to show whether the Marshal–Lerner condition holds in the manufacturing sector. Johansen cointegration and vector error correction modelling techniques are employed in attaining the objectives of this study. In addition, impulse response functions are used to determine how the manufacturing trade balance responds following shocks in its main determinants. The results show that real effective exchange rate (REER), real domestic and foreign income levels are important long run determinants of the manufacturing trade balance, and that a long run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables. A long run negative relationship was found between the trade balance and the REER and between the trade balance and real domestic income. In contrast, real foreign income was found to be positively related to the domestic manufacturing trade balance in the long run. The short run model reveals that a depreciation in the domestic currency results in a deterioration in the manufacturing trade balance. This, together with the long run findings, suggests evidence of the existence of the J-curve in the South African manufacturing trade balance. The long run dynamics suggest that the Marshal–Lerner condition holds. This dissertation found evidence that a depreciation of the rand is necessary to improve the manufacturing trade balance.

M.Com. (Economics) / This dissertation offers an evaluation of the performance of purchasing power parity (PPP) and the monetary approach as explanations of rand exchange rate behaviour over the last three decades. The theory of purchasing power parity is examined in detail. Thereafter purchasing power parity is combined with the quantity theory of money placing the theory in the broader context of the monetary approach. A modified monetary model illustrating exchange rate overshooting in the short-run and adjustment to PPP in the long-run is then examined in some detail. Chapter 4 presents an overview of the: empirical evidence on PPP and the monetary approach from industrialized countries and developing nations. Results are generally mixed but there does appear to be some strong support for PPP holding in the (very) long run in the case of the currencies of industrialized countries. However, it has proven very difficult to reconcile the persistence of deviations from PPP over the short to medium term with the theory of long-run purchasing power parity. This is known as, the purchasing power parity puzzle and is particularly evident for floating exchange rate regimes of industrialized countries. Studies of developing nation currencies are less supportive of PPP. However, much more research needs to be done before any firm conclusions can be made regarding exchange rate behaviour in developing countries...

M.Comm. (Financial Economics) / In this study, the equilibrium exchange rate path of the rand/dollar real exchange rate between 1994 and the second quarter of 2011 is estimated. This is done by employing a number of methods, namely, Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (FEER), Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rates (BEER), Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX) and the Corbae-Oularis filter method. What stands out in the study is that all of the methods lead to results that are close in proximity, with the Corbae-Oularis method as an exception. In the study it is established that during the period when the ZAR.USD real exchange rate was

MSc(Med), Population-based Field Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 2009

This study set out to investigate the relationship between returns in the residential property markets and two key economic variables of output and interest rates. The main focus was on the short-term rates path and how it is influenced by the Taylor rule fundamentals and in turn, its effect on the returns in the property markets within the developing countries of South Africa, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Czech Republic. A secondary focus was on building a model that can be further developed into a full forecasting model of returns in the residential property markets. Output was found to be a strong driver of returns in the residential property markets across all four countries. Real changes in the economic activity feed into the residential property markets and drives returns. Output can be incorporated into a forecasting framework for returns in the residential property markets within these countries The short-term rate paths within the countries studied were found to be consistent with the Taylor rule but with heavy short run deviations from the rule. Short-term rates deviated from the rule in the short run, but showed a tendency to revert to the rule in subsequent periods. Returns and prices in the property markets were driven by the short-term rates only in two of the emerging markets. For these countries, this link between rate and returns mean there was also a link between monetary policy and returns in the property sector. Similar to the Taylor rule process, property returns in the two emerging markets were found to have short run deviations which could not be explained by interest rates and output. For the purposes of building a fully fledged forecasting model, this model must be expanded to include other explanatory factors. Adding the risk premium as an explanatory variable could be the starting point.

There are many functions of the financial system, with the basic function of transferring loanable funds from lender to borrowers (Rose et al, 1995). This financial transaction can be carried out directly or semi directly between lenders and borrowers. The shortcomings of direct and semi direct financing have opened doors for a third method—financial intermediation, which is done by financial intermediaries. Commercial bank is the classic example of financial intermediary at work. To achieve the goal of owners’ wealth maximization, banks should manage their assets, liabilities, and capital efficiently. In doing this, the bank should be conscious of the gap or spread between the interest income and the interest expenses paid, which is called net interest income (NII). Net interest income is a major part of banks’ profit, this is basically why the financial intermediaries try to offer lowest returns to savers and lend funds to borrowers at the highest possible interest rates. It is measured as net interest margin (NIM), which is NII divided by the average earning assets. This study examines the interest rate sensitivity of commercial banks’ interest profitability (Net Interest Margin) and net worth at the theoretical level and attempt to measure empirically the extent to which the interest profitability and net worth of commercial banks have been affected during the period of changing interest rates between 2001 and 2010. It as well measures the extent to which the factors that determine interest rate movement affect interest rate and which of the factors has more effect on interest rate. The measure of profitability captures the essence of lend-long borrow-short without directly including other determinants of bank income, such as loan loss and loan volume, which may be correlated with interest rates. It is also important to note that NIM is not a measure of total banks’ profits since it does not include non-interest income and expenses. A software package stata 10.0 was used to conduct the hypothesis testing, trend, and correlation analysis. The sampled banks are fourteen commercial banks and one investment bank in South Africa. The sampled banks were later divided into two groups (big and small), based on their assets size as at the year-end 2010. There are five (5) big banks with asset size of more than R100 billion and ten (10) small banks with asset size of less than R100 billion iii as at the year-end 2010. Analysis was further carried out separately on both the big and small banks to see the effect of interest rate fluctuations on them. Data required by the model was obtained from annual financial statements of the sampled banks for the period of ten years. It was found that fluctuations on interest rate (repo rate) affect the profit of commercial banks, but this effect is huge on small banks than the big banks. As the repo rate increases, the profit of commercial banks increases. Such effect of repo rate on profit of commercial banks was found to be statistically significant. It was also found that interest rate changes as well affect the net worth of commercial banks. The macroeconomic factors the determine the interest rates do not have direct effect on the banks’ profit, but have significant effect on the banks’ net worth, especially that of the small banks. As the rate of inflation, the rate of money supply, and uncertainty increase, the net worth of the small commercial banks in South Africa also increase. It could be advised that to maximize owners’ equity, South African commercial banks (big and small) should concentrate more on forecasting and controlling the determinants of the interest rates, rather than the interest rates themselves. It was also found that among the internal factors affecting profit and net worth of commercial banks, the liquidity ratio is most significant relative to capital ratio, competition, and non-performing loan.

The aim of this research is to explore the regulation of interconnection in Rwanda by investigating whether the current interconnection regime has ensured fair and reasonable interconnection rates that can enhance efficiency and effective competition. A qualitative research approach was used and the data were collected using semi-structured interviews and documentary analysis. The findings reveal that although RURA adopted a cost-based interconnection approach to ensure a fair and reasonable interconnection rate, its poor implementation resulted in an inefficient level of fixed and mobile interconnection rates. The study found an inconsistent application of the regime by incumbents, lack of sufficient regulatory capacity and lack of clear and comprehensive policy instruments. More recently, RURA is making efforts towards adopting a new regime to address the current interconnection rate issues in Rwanda. This study demonstrates that the current interconnection rate regime requires extensive rethinking about appropriate costing models and regulatory capacity, in order to enhance market efficiency and promote effective competition.

Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investments in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand February 2017 / For developed economies, it has been shown that the slope of the yield curve is a good indicator of the future path of real output and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive abilities of the yield curve slope for domestic growth and inflation in emerging market economies. Given the sovereign risk premia in these economies, it also assesses whether adding the sovereign risk spread to the yield curve spread improves the predictive content of the yield curve. It finds that the yield curve can predict real output at both the short and long forecasting horizons in emerging economies, the extent of which differs across countries. It also finds that the predictive performance for inflation is weaker than that of output growth, especially in the shorter forecasting horizons, and that the sovereign risk spread has additional predictive content for growth and inflation. This suggests that market participants and monetary policy makers in these economies should supplement their forecasting models with information contained in the yield curve to forecast domestic growth and inflation. / MT2017