Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 26-27). / Risk -- both its mitigation and its exploitation in pursuit of profits -- is likely the most important topic in the study of investment. Risk in private market commercial real estate, however, has been historically less well understood than other more liquid asset classes. To date, most of the research on risk in real estate investment has focused on how changes, cycles, or shocks in the underlying space or asset markets occur. This paper furthers the study of commercial real estate risk by decomposing historical asset volatility into its component space and asset market parts. We do this through the application of a variance decomposition framework on NCREIF NPI time-series data that has been de-trended of long-term secular market movements. In doing so, we are able to compare the relative contributions of space and asset market volatility to commercial real estate price volatility and, more importantly, demonstrate how the expectations of investors who sit at the intersection of those two markets may play an overlooked role in moderating or augmenting volatility. / by Christopher J. Whittier. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 52-54). / This thesis examines an underappreciated asset class -- small Class B multifamily in secondary Sun Belt markets -- to see if it is a suitable entry point for junior real estate investors and developers. Due to the small size and low price points of these properties, as well as their location outside of gateway markets, these assets tend to escape the attention of highly-sophisticated capital. This lack of attention creates market inefficiencies with strong upside potential for-junior real estate investors and developers at reasonable entry-point prices. This thesis examines the economics of small Class B and C multifamily assets; the resiliency of these assets in an economic recession; and the optionality inherent to Class B and C multifamily as it pertains to various holding and exit strategies. This thesis also explores the trends driving growth in secondary Sun Belt markets, and why these markets are attractive to junior real estate investors and developers. Incorporated within this thesis are case studies of a secondary Sun Belt market (Tampa Bay, Florida) and a small, Class B multifamily asset (the Caprice). / by Wade Vaughn. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 84-86). / As FinTech and online alternative finance has become a disrupter for the world, one of their subcategories, crowdfunding has a considerable potential to change the real estate industry. The study was to examine the real estate crowdfunding (short for RECF) in China and understand the present status of the industry, challenges, opportunities, and trends. The data mainly came from the Chinese crowdfunding websites, industry reports, and the RECF platforms; the methodology included fundamental data analysis, case study and comparison with the RECF in other regions such as US, UK, and Europe. The study started with an introduction of real estate FinTech, crowdfunding, and theoretical framework about RECF as well as the global RECF market to get a better understanding of the RECF in China. / Then the research examined the history, and current status about the platform models, players, and characteristics of the RECF in China; the two representative cases (Duocaitou and Kaishiba) were are analyzed in detail to interpret the drivers under their successes and problems in general. The study found out the possible challenges for the RECF industry in China, including the blurred regulatory environment, low diversification in types and locations of properties and immature platforms as well as low desire to expand globally. Finally, the research attempted to seek for potentials and recommendations that will ultimately lead to the successful future development of this industry. The study was subject to the limitations on accessibility to the database and timeliness of data in such a changing industry. / However, its findings and suggestions can be useful to players who are supposed to engage in the RECF ecosystem and intend to involve in the RECF in China such as regulators, real estate developers, institutional or retail investors, and RECF startups. Future researches are necessary to understand the effectiveness of risk management systems on the RECF platforms, the ways that the institutional players can involve in the industry, the globalization of the Chinese RECF, and mechanism of RECF ecosystem. / by Renjie Tang. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 49-50). / The durations of other indicators have been researched extensively in real estate studies, primarily the time on market and the duration of residence in housing units. Despite their importance, empirical research on the duration of vacancies is relatively limited and focused mainly on the housing sector. This paper aims to fill this gap and analyze the determinants of vacancy durations in the office sector. The analysis is based on a dataset of individual office suites located in New York City, NY that became vacant between 2012 and 2015. Vacancy durations are a form of time-to-event data and as such can be examined using survival analysis. We present several parametric and non-parametric survival models. Four key characteristics -- unit size, asking rent, building height, and floor number -- are found significant across all model specifications. Specifically, vacancy durations are affected the most by unit size and asking rent. Survival probabilities are found to considerably vary over time, which appears to be driven by variations in employment growth. / by Jiri Sykora. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 49-55). / Middle-income renters in major cities across the United States are facing an affordability crisis. Many of them earn too much money to qualify for rental assistance programs, but don't earn enough to comfortably afford market rents. Developers recognize the need for quality workforce housing close to major employment centers but have been unable to deliver enough projects to satisfy demand. Population growth, urbanization, and low homeownership rates are just a few of the macroeconomic trends that are driving up the demand for rental housing and causing market rents to rapidly appreciate beyond reach for the middle class. Rising construction costs as a result of government regulation, a shortage of skilled construction labor, and foreign trade policy make the production of workforce housing even more challenging. With a shortage of middle-income subsidy programs at every level of government, developers must exhibit creativity if they wish to build or preserve workforce housing. This Thesis explores the confluence of forces and factors that make it challenging to build new workforce housing and to preserve the existing stock. It then assesses subsidy programs at different levels of government and market-based solutions that developers can add to their toolkit. Three case studies from different parts of the country are used as examples to show how developers can overcome the obstacles and use the tools at their disposal to create workforce housing. Drawing upon the preceding analyses and discussions, the Thesis concludes with a series of recommendations that developers can employ to make workforce projects more economically feasible. / by Eric Charles Rosenthal. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 35-36). / Even the most seemingly straightforward developments are not without risk. Given development's speculative nature, developers are taking a risk today that there will be future demand for their project at the time of delivery. Additionally, given the high fixed costs of development, such as land value and construction costs, developers face the risk that their projected rental revenue or asset valuation might shift unfavorably by the time of delivery. While nearly all developments face these risks, developers acquiring a parcel of land that must still go through the entitlement and permitting process are faced with a host of additional risks given the uncertainty surrounding third party approvals. As zoning is a localized set of regulations, the process and associated risks vary from market to market. / The purpose of this thesis is to understand what uncertainties are considered the riskiest by developers and how the clarity of the local zoning code can create or mitigate these risks and impact a developer's risk tolerance. Through a set of interviews with groups experienced in development in three major U.S. markets, this paper explores how developers are pricing the additional risk of acquiring unentitled land into their return requirements and if their methods suggest that they are being adequately compensated for taking on greater uncertainty. It appears that while developers do underwrite a premium for unentitled land, among different unentitled opportunities, this premium is fairly homogenous within a given market. Differences exist however between markets depending on how transparent and easily understood the approval process is. / In a city where the approval process for obtaining entitlements is clear and codified, developers feel confident in the path to construction commencement and therefore underwrite only a moderate return premium. However, in cities with ambiguous or byzantine zoning codes, uncertainty and perhaps even skepticism of the process causes developers to require a greater return premium, resulting in decreased land values, to compensate themselves for the increased risk in obtaining entitlement approvals. / by Gina Pfingston. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2017 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 45-46). / With the strong drive of seeking stable returns and hedging against a slowing economy, Chinese investors have extended their investment aggressively around the world to diversify their holdings. In 2016, according to JLL's Global Capital Flow, Chinese investment hit the new height in the overseas property markets, rushing US$33 billion into real estate investments. It led to an increase of nearly 53% y-o-y (Morgan, 2017). Among those, almost half of the transactions happened in the U.S (Wildau, 2017). In the past years, high profile deals were always unsurprisingly related to Chinese investors' name in the U.S. 2017, however, has been whirlwind for Chinese investors in the U.S. Along with the election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States, the Chinese government imposed capital control on foreign investment. Although the mainstream is saying that the new administration of the U.S. is not considered a significant threat to the investment and the temporary policy of capital control would not outweigh the long-term strategy of investment overseas, the uncertainties and prolonged procedure of the outflow capital does delay the pace of outbound investment. This thesis is aiming to dive into the fundamentals of Chinese outbound investment in the U.S. real estate market. It will focus on the primary investment strategies the Chinese investors are using, including the selection of property type, the size of the deal, geographic targeting, and local partnership. This thesis will also conduct interviews and case studies with institutional investors who have a long-term strategy of investing in the U.S. market. The case studies will not only address the above questions but also seek different perspectives on their strategies for dealing with the current business climate. After the analysis, this thesis intends to figure out potential constraints and opportunities for Chinese investors and their partners in the U.S. real estate market. / by Mengjing Ni. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2017 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 40-43). / The digital age of real estate provides access to new data and techniques to evaluate properties. Real estate brokerage and technology firms are assembling this data to produce user-friendly scores that serve as powerful metrics to identify real estate trends and evaluate buyer behavior. This paper examines Redfin's "Walk score" that measures a location's walkability to amenities like grocery stores or parks and uses a hedonic pricing model to find the $/square-foot premium for high Walk scores in three communities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The data is composed of residential transactions from 2014 to early 2016 that are analyzed at the neighborhood level and normalized to improve the precision of the hedonic model. This neighborhood lens produces a more robust analysis than the broader data sets used in the majority of prior Walk score research. The results shown in this paper demonstrate that a high Walk score is highly correlated with increased property values in a broad range of communities with diverse socioeconomic characteristics. This study includes a framework for using Walk scores (and several related scores) by discussing the composition of the scores, economic principles underpinning them and the critical assumptions for hedonic regressions using Walk scores. These considerations are critical to assessing the real premium of Walk scores. The paper concludes with an analysis method for investors to use walk scores to identify real estate home-buying trends, find under-valued property and create development programs that leverage and build upon walkability. / by Nicholas Foran. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2017 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 65-66). / Over the past several decades, the real estate market has surged in Beijing. Meanwhile, Beijing suffers severe air pollution now and then. Because of the dissatisfaction of air quality, clean air becomes a highly valued factor of the overall quality of life. When people choose to buy properties, they would be willing to pay more for a unit that is located in less polluted areas than for an otherwise identical unit that is located in more polluted areas. This study aims to establish a relationship between air pollution's spatial distribution and property price by using historical air quality record and property transaction data in Beijing. Although people cannot purchase clean air directly, variations in the air quality of different areas should be indirect reflected in housing prices. Employing the hedonic pricing model, the results suggest a strong positive relationship between a unit's resale price and the air quality of the area where the unit is located, meaning that properties that are located in an area with relatively better air quality are sold at a premium and vice versa. Besides, by using a matching regression, relationship between air quality's seasonal variation and property price is discovered, although it is not statistically significant. Another matching regression confirms that compared to property buyers, property renters care less about the air quality of the area where the unit is located, but care more about the unit's other specific locational attributes and physical attributes, such as job accessibility and interior decoration. / by Sai Fang. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2017 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 67-69). / Latin America has witnessed many upheavals and controversies in the recent past. However, the region continues to show strong and stable growth as business carries on despite political and social turbulence. Local economies are open to foreign investment. Markets have developed in both depth and sophistication as first risk-seeking frontier investors and then larger Institutional Investors entered the market. Today, open economies, increased market transparency and liquidity, sophisticated local partners, the availability of debt financing from both local and global parties and a variety of structures provide opportunities for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIls) to invest capital in assets in Latin America with attractive risk-return profiles. This thesis will assess the five largest Latin American markets for FIs, describing their economies' evolution and the formation and development of the FDI market. Investing in Latin America has become a central pillar of many international corporations' and developed countries' economic strategies. Many North American, Asian, and European firms have material investments in Latin America's real estate sector. The thesis will outline a series of best practices to follow when sourcing opportunities and managing a portfolio of assets in Latin America, along with the risks that may be encountered. / by Lisseth Enciso Huayek. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate