In assessing the economic viability of a waterflood project, a key parameter is the remaining oil saturation (ROS) within each pattern unit. This information helps in identifying the areas with the highest ROS and thus potential for further development. While special core analysis, log-inject-log, and thermal-decay time-log-evaluation techniques are available, they provide only single-point values and a snapshot in time near a wellbore. Also, they can quickly add up to an expensive program. The analytical areal distribution method estimates ROS in a waterflood pattern unit from material balance calculations using well injection and production data with no pressure information required. Well production and injection volumes are routinely measured in oilfield operations, making the method very attractive. The areal distribution technique estimates two major uncertainties: vertical loss of injected water into nontarget areas or areal loss into surrounding patterns, and injected water for gas fill-up. However, developers tested it only in low-pressure conditions, which are increasingly rare in oilfield operations. The main purpose of my research, then, was to verify whether or not the areal distribution method is valid in higher pressure conditions. Simulation of various waterflood patterns confirmed that the areal distribution method with its estimated ROS is capable of precise estimation of actual ROS, but at high pressures it requires consideration of pressure data in addition to injection and production data.

No description available.

In the oil and gas industry, statistical methods have been used for corrosion analysis for various asset systems such as pipelines, storage tanks, and so on. However, few industrial standards and guidelines provide comprehensive stepwise procedures for the usage of statistical approaches for corrosion analysis. For example, the UK HSE (2002) report "Guidelines for the use of statistics for analysis of sample inspection of corrosion" demonstrates how statistical methods can be used to evaluate corrosion samples, but the methods explained in the document are very basic and do not consider risk factors such as pressure, temperature, design, external factors and other factors for the analyses. Furthermore, often the industrial practice that uses linear approximation on localised corrosion such as pitting is considered inappropriate as pitting growth is not uniform. The aim of this research is to develop an approach that models the stochastic behaviour of localised corrosion and demonstrate how the influencing factors can be linked to the corrosion analyses, for predicting the remaining useful life of components in oil and gas plants. This research addresses a challenge in industry practice. Non-destructive testing (NDT) and inspection techniques have improved in recent years making more and more data available to asset operators. However, this means that these data need to be processed to extract meaningful information. Increasing computer power has enabled the use of statistics for such data processing. Statistical software such as R and OpenBUGS is available to users to explore new and pragmatic statistical methods (e.g. regression models and stochastic models) and fully use the available data in the field. In this thesis, we carry out extreme value analysis to determine maximum defect depth of an offshore conductor pipe and simulate the defect depth using geometric Brownian motion in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, we introduce a Weibull density regression that is based on a gamma transformation proportional hazards model to analyse the corrosion data of piping deadlegs. The density regression model takes multiple influencing factors into account; this model can be used to extrapolate the corrosion density of inaccessible deadlegs with data available from other piping systems. In Chapter 4, we demonstrate how the corrosion prediction models in Chapters 2 and 3 could be used to predict the remaining useful life of these components. Chapter 1 sets the background to the techniques used, and Chapter 5 presents concluding remarks based on the application of the techniques.

As bridges continue to age and budgets reduce, transportation officials often need quantitative data to distinguish between bridges that can be kept safely in service and those that need to be replaced or retrofitted. One of the critical types of structural deterioration for steel bridges is fatigue-induced fracture, and evaluating the daily fatigue damage through field measurements is one means of providing quantitative data to transportation officials. When analyzing data obtained through field measurements, methods are needed to properly evaluate fatigue damage. Five techniques for evaluating strain data were formalized in this dissertation. Simplified rainflow counting, which converts a stress history into a histogram of stress cycles, is an algorithm standardized by ASTM and the first step of a fatigue analysis. Two methods, effective stress range and index stress range, for determining the total amount of fatigue damage during a monitoring period are presented. The effective stress range is the traditional approach for determining the amount of damage, whereas the index stress range is a new method that was developed to facilitate comparisons of fatigue damage between sensors and/or bridges. Two additional techniques, contribution to damage and cumulative damage, for visualizing the data were conceived to allow an engineer to characterize the spectrum of stress ranges. Using those two techniques, an engineer can evaluate whether lower stress cycles (concern due to electromechanical noise from data acquisition system) and higher stress ranges (concern due to possible spike from data acquisition system) contribute significantly to the accumulation of damage in the bridge. Data from field measurements can be used to improve the estimate of the remaining fatigue life. Deterministic and probabilistic approaches for calculating the remaining fatigue life were considered, and three methods are presented in this dissertation. For deterministic approaches, the output of the equations is the year when the fatigue life has been exceeded for a specific probability of failure, whereas for probabilistic approaches, the probability of failure for a given year is calculated. Four different steel bridges were instrumented and analyzed according to the techniques outlined in this dissertation. / text

In a meta-analysis of articles employing clustering methods, we find that little attention is paid to remaining within-cluster heterogeneity and that average values are relatively high. We suggest addressing this potentially problematic "dark side" of cluster analysis by providing two coefficients as standard information in any cluster analysis findings: a goodness-of-fit measure and a measure which relates explained variation of analysed empirical data to explained variation of simulated random data. The second coefficient is referred to as the Index of Clustering Appropriateness (ICA). Finally, we develop a classification scheme depicting acceptable levels of remaining within-cluster heterogeneity. (authors' abstract)

Yes / Diagnostics and prognostics have significant roles in the reliability enhancement of systems and are focused topics of active research. Engineered systems are becoming more complex and are subjected to miscellaneous failure modes that impact adversely their performability. This everincreasing complexity makes fault diagnostics and prognostics challenging for the system-level functions. A significant number of successes have been achieved and acknowledged in some review papers; however, these reviews rarely focused on the application of complex engineered systems nor provided a systematic review of diverse techniques and approaches to address the related challenges. To bridge the gap, this paper firstly presents a review to systematically cover the general concepts and recent development of various diagnostics and prognostics approaches, along with their strengths and shortcomings for the application of diverse engineered systems. Afterward, given the characteristics of complex systems, the applicability of different techniques and methods that are capable to address the features of complex systems are reviewed and discussed, and some of the recent achievements in the literature are introduced. Finally, the unaddressed challenges are discussed by taking into account the characteristics of automotive systems as an example of complex systems. In addition, future development and potential research trends are offered to address those challenges. Consequently, this review provides a systematic view of the state of the art and case studies with a reference value for scholars and practitioners.

No description available.

ITC/USA 2011 Conference Proceedings / The Forty-Seventh Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 24-27, 2011 / Bally's Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada / The surprise failure of two NASA Space Shuttles and the premature failures of satellite subsystem equipment on NASA satellites are motivating NASA to adopt an engineering discipline that uses telemetry specifically developed for preventing surprise equipment failures. The NASA Orion spacecraft is an Apollo module-like capsule planned to replace the NASA Space Shuttle reusable launch vehicle for getting astronauts to space and return to the earth safely as well as a crew escape vehicle stored at the ISS. To do so, NASA is adopting a non-Markov reliability paradigm for measuring equipment life based on the prognostic and health management program on the Air Force F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The decision is based on the results from the prognostic analysis completed on the Space Shuttle Challenger and Columbia that identified the information that was present but was ignored for a variety of reasons. The goal of a PHM is to produce equipment that will not fail prematurely. It includes using predictive algorithms to measure equipment usable life. Equipment with transient behavior caused from accelerated of parts will fail prematurely with 100% certainty. For many decades, it was believed that test equipment and software used to in testing and noise from communications equipment were the cause of most transient behavior. With the processing speed of today's processors, transient behavior is caused from at least one part suffering from accelerated aging. Transient behavior is illustrated in equipment telemetry in a prognostic analysis. Telemetry is equipment performance information and equipment performance has been used to increase reliability, but performance is unrelated to equipment remaining usable life and so equipment should be failing prematurely. A PHM requires equipment telemetry for analysis and so analog telemetry will be available from all Orion avionics equipment. Replacing equipment with a measured remaining usable life of less than one year will stop the premature and surprise equipment failures from occurring during future manned and unmanned space missions.

ITC/USA 2011 Conference Proceedings / The Forty-Seventh Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 24-27, 2011 / Bally's Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada / Satellite and launch vehicles continues to suffer from catastrophic infant mortality failures. NASA now requires satellite suppliers to provide on-orbit satellite delivery and a free satellite and launch vehicle in the event of a catastrophic infant mortality failure. A high infant mortality failure rate demonstrates that the factory acceptance test program alone is inadequate for producing 100% reliability space vehicle equipment. This inadequacy is caused from personnel only measuring equipment performance during ATP and performance is unrelated to reliability. Prognostic technology uses pro-active diagnostics, active reasoning and proprietary algorithms that illustrate deterministic data for prognosticians to identify piece-parts, components and assemblies that will fail within the first year of use allowing this equipment to be repaired or replaced while still on the ground. Prognostic technology prevents equipment failures and so is pro-active. Adding prognostic technology will identify all unreliable equipment prior to shipment to the launch pad producing 100% reliable equipment and will eliminate launch failures, launch pad delays, on-orbit infant mortalities, surprise in-orbit failures. Moving to the 100% reliable equipment extends on-orbit equipment usable life.

ITC/USA 2012 Conference Proceedings / The Forty-Eighth Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 22-25, 2012 / Town and Country Resort & Convention Center, San Diego, California / The surprise failure of two NASA Space Shuttles and the premature failures of satellite subsystem equipment on NASA satellites are motivating NASA to adopt an engineering discipline specifically developed for preventing surprise equipment failures. The NASA Orion spacecraft is an Apollo module-like capsule planned to replace the NASA Space Shuttle reusable launch vehicle for getting astronauts to space and return to the earth safely as well as a crew escape vehicle stored at the ISS. To do so, NASA is adopting a non-Markov reliability paradigm for measuring equipment life based on the prognostic and health management program on the Air Force F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The decision is based on the results from the prognostic analysis completed on the Space Shuttle Challenger and Columbia that identified the information that was present but was ignored for a variety of reasons prior to both accidents. The goal of a PHM is to produce equipment that will not fail prematurely and includes using predictive algorithms to measure equipment usable life. Equipment with transient behavior, missed by engineering analysis is caused from accelerated of parts will fail prematurely with 100% certainty. With the processing speed of today's processors, transient behavior is caused from at least one part suffering from accelerated aging. Transient behavior is illustrated in equipment telemetry in a prognostic analysis but not in an engineering analysis. Telemetry is equipment performance information and equipment performance has been used to increase reliability, but performance is unrelated to equipment remaining usable life and so equipment should be failing prematurely. A PHM requires equipment telemetry for analysis and so analog telemetry will be available from all Orion avionics equipment. Replacing equipment with a measured remaining usable life of less than one year will stop the premature and surprise equipment failures from occurring during future manned and unmanned space missions.