Due to persistent and serious threats from natural disasters around the globe, many have turned to resilience and vulnerability research to guide disaster preparation, recovery, and adaptation decisions. In response, scholars and practitioners have put forth a variety of disaster indices, based on quantifiable metrics, to gauge levels of resilience and vulnerability. However, few indices are empirically validated using observed disaster impacts and, as a result, it is often unclear which index should be preferred for each decision at hand. Thus, we compare and empirically validate five of the top U.S. disaster indices, including three resilience indices and two vulnerability indices. We use observed disaster losses, fatalities, and disaster declarations from the southeastern United States to empirically validate each index. We find that disaster indices, though thoughtfully substantiated by literature and theoretically persuasive, are not all created equal. While four of the five indices perform as predicted in explaining damages, only three explain fatalities and only two explain disaster declarations as expected by theory. These results highlight the need for disaster indices to clearly state index objectives and structure underlying metrics to support validation of the results based on these goals. Further, policymakers should use index results carefully when developing regional policy or investing in resilience and vulnerability improvement projects.

Cette thèse doctorale porte sur la gestion des risques d’inondation et des capacités d’adaptation des zones côtières, notamment face au changement climatique. Le contexte actuel est tel que la vulnérabilité face aux aléas d’inondation est amplifiée par les phénomènes du changement climatique et par la forte exposition, des personnes et des biens, en zones à risques. Sous le cadre général du projet européen Theseus ’’Innovative technologies for safer European coasts in a changing climate’’, ce travail de recherche s’est, en particulier, appuyé sur une étude de cas en France : l’estuaire de la Gironde.L’objectif de ce travail est de proposer un cadre alternatif d’adaptation de la gestion des inondations, à l’égard des incertitudes liées au contexte climatique.Dans cet objectif, cette recherche est partie d’une étude d’exploration, des perceptions locales vis-à-vis des inondations, pour analyser ensuite la gestion actuelle, sous forme de combinaison entre mesures structurelles et non structurelles.La publication d’articles scientifiques, contenus dans ce rapport, cristallise l’essentiel des résultats obtenus et illustre la démarche itérative de progression, entre le recueil des données du terrain et l’analyse des concepts théoriques.Cette thèse doctorale a abouti à la proposition d’un cadre opérationnel de renforcement de la résilience appliqué à l’aménagement du territoire, aux systèmes d’alerte, aux plans d’évacuation, aux plans de continuité de fonctionnement, aux programmes d’assurance et à la gestion du post-trauma. / This PhD thesis deals with the flood risk management and the adaptation capacities of coastal areas, in regard of the climate change.Currently, the flood hazard vulnerability is aggravated by both the climate change phenomenon and the huge exposure, of people and assets, in risk areas. In the general framework of Theseus european project, this research work has particularly focused on the Gironde estuary, in France, as a case study.The aim of this work is to provide an alternative framework of adaptation for the flood risk management, in regard of the climate change related uncertainties.In this order, our research is initiated by anexploratory study , of the local perception toward the flood hazard, followed by the analysis of the current flood risk management, as a set of structural and nonstructural measures.The published papers, included in this report, summarize our results and illustrate our iterative approach between the field data collection and the theoretical concepts analysis.This thesis research has led to put forward an operationnal framework to enhance the resilience applied to land use planning, warning systems and evacuation plans, business recovery plans, insurance programs and post trauma management.