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Statistical Modeling for Credit RatingsVana, Laura 01 August 2018 (has links) (PDF)
This thesis deals with the development, implementation and application of statistical modeling techniques which can be employed in the analysis of credit ratings.
Credit ratings are one of the most widely used measures of credit risk and are relevant for a wide array of financial market participants, from investors, as part of their investment decision process, to regulators and legislators as a means of measuring and limiting risk. The majority of credit ratings is produced by the "Big Three" credit
rating agencies Standard & Poors', Moody's and Fitch. Especially in the light of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, these rating agencies have been strongly criticized for failing to assess risk accurately and for the lack of transparency in their rating methodology. However,
they continue to maintain a powerful role as financial market participants and have a huge impact on the cost of funding. These points of criticism call for the development of modeling techniques that can 1) facilitate an understanding of the factors that drive the
rating agencies' evaluations, 2) generate insights into the rating patterns that these agencies exhibit.
This dissertation consists of three research articles.
The first one focuses on variable selection and assessment of variable importance in accounting-based models of credit risk. The credit risk measure employed in the study is derived from credit ratings assigned
by ratings agencies Standard & Poors' and Moody's. To deal with the lack of theoretical foundation specific to this type of models, state-of-the-art statistical methods are employed. Different models are compared based on a predictive criterion and model uncertainty is
accounted for in a Bayesian setting. Parsimonious
models are identified after applying the proposed techniques.
The second paper proposes the class of multivariate ordinal regression models for the modeling of credit ratings. The model class is motivated by the fact that correlated ordinal data arises naturally in the context of credit ratings. From a methodological point of view, we
extend existing model specifications in several directions by allowing, among others, for a flexible covariate dependent correlation structure between the continuous variables underlying the ordinal
credit ratings. The estimation of the proposed models is performed using composite likelihood methods. Insights into the heterogeneity among the "Big Three" are gained when applying this model class to the multiple credit ratings dataset. A comprehensive simulation study on the performance of the estimators is provided.
The third research paper deals with the implementation and application of the model class introduced in the second article. In order to make the class of multivariate ordinal regression models more accessible, the R package mvord and the complementary paper included in this dissertation have been developed. The mvord package is available on the "Comprehensive R Archive Network" (CRAN) for free download and enhances the available ready-to-use statistical software for the analysis of correlated ordinal data. In the creation of the package a strong emphasis has
been put on developing a user-friendly and flexible design. The user-friendly design allows end users to estimate in an easy way sophisticated models from the implemented model class. The end users the package appeals to are practitioners and researchers who deal with correlated ordinal data in various areas of application, ranging from credit risk to medicine or psychology.
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Řízení kreditního rizika v bankách / Credit risk management in banksPětníková, Tereza January 2014 (has links)
The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mitigation tools to the regulatory requirements for credit risk management. The second part gives a more detailed view to credit risk measurement and evaluation and possibilities of credit risk hedging. Last part presents credit risk management in practise illustrated by the example of chosen bank.
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