Evidence from clinical patient populations indicates that affective dysregulation is strongly associated with reality distortion, suggesting that a process of misassignment of emotional salience may underlie this connection. To examine this in more detail without clinical confounds, affective regulation-reality distortion relationships, and their clinical relevance, were examined in a German prospective cohort community study. A cohort of 2524 adolescents and young adults aged 14–24 years at baseline was examined by experienced psychologists. Presence of psychotic experiences and (hypo)manic and depressive symptoms was assessed at 2 time points (3.5 and up to 10 years after baseline) using the Munich-Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Associations were tested between level of affective dysregulation on the one hand and incidence of psychotic experiences, persistence of these experiences, and psychotic Impairment on the other. Most psychotic experiences occurred in a context of affective dysregulation, and bidirectional dose-response was apparent with greater level of both affective dysregulation and psychotic experiences. Persistence of psychotic experiences was progressively more likely with greater level of (hypo)manic symptoms (odds ratio [OR] trend = 1.51, P < .001) and depressive symptoms (OR trend = 1.15, P = .012). Similarly, psychotic experiences of clinical relevance were progressively more likely to occur with greater level of affective dysregulation (depressive symptoms: OR trend = 1.28, P = .002; (hypo)manic symptoms: OR trend = 1.37, P = .036). Correlated genetic liabilities underlying affective and nonaffective psychotic syndromes may be expressed as correlated dimensions in the general population. Also, affective dysregulation may contribute causally to the persistence and clinical relevance of reality distortion, possibly by facilitating a mechanism of aberrant salience attribution.

This study examined the hypothesis that developmental expression of psychometric risk in the form of subclinical psychotic experiences in the general population is usually transitory but in some instances may become abnormally persistent and progress to a clinical psychotic state. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a general population sample of 845 adolescents, aged 14–17 years, in Munich, Germany (Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology Study). Expression of psychosis was assessed 4 times (T0–T3) over a period of 8.4 years. Transition from subclinical psychosis at T0–T2 to clinical psychosis in terms of impairment at T3 was examined as a function of the level of prior persistence of subclinical psychosis (present never, once, twice, or thrice). The more the subclinical psychosis persisted over the period T0–T2, the greater the risk of transition to clinical psychosis at T3 in a dose-response fashion (subclinical psychosis expression once over T0–T2: odds ratio [OR] = 1.5 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 0.6–3.7], posttest probability [PP] = 5%; twice: OR = 5.0 [95% CI = 1.6–15.9], PP = 16%; at all 3 measurements: OR = 9.9 [95% CI = 2.5–39.8], PP = 27%). Of all clinical psychosis at T3, more than a third (38.3%) was preceded by subclinical psychotic experiences at least once and a fifth (19.6%) at least twice. Consequently, a significant proportion of psychotic disorder may be conceptualized as the rare poor outcome of a common developmental phenotype characterized by persistence of psychometrically detectable subclinical psychotic experiences. This may be summarized descriptively as a psychosis proneness-persistence-impairment model of psychotic disorder.