0.4.1. ORGANIZATIONIn the context of the global human/earth issues (population, poverty, imbalances, environment problematic, global warming, water scarcity, economical globalization, etc.) with the others the Carrying Capacity issue is emerging. It is a "driver" which is not always simply related with sustainable development concepts. It is therefore enormously important to give adequate answers to the majority of the global dilemmas. The definition of carrying capacity is not easy because it is controversial. So the first chapter of this study is to adopt a clearer position in reference to the meaning, the borders, the key aspects, etc., of our approach to this issue. Basically, our approach is, first, from the sustainable development point of view and, second, a local approach in a global view. Finally and concretely, we indicate what aspects, in which place, how do we study carrying capacity? The answer to these questions will be: the agricultural (land and water) reality in a very specific region of East Sub Saharan Africa.So the next step of the work is to specify and delimit our chosen region and, obviously, to study it in detail. Chapter 2, and some parts of Chapter 8, are the results of this.The kind of methodological approach to global human/earth issues is, clearly, the most characteristic point of our work. We follow a scientific approach developed by Dr. Mihajlo Mesarovic over forty years ago in the mathematical systems analysis field and "finished" in multilevel integrated assessment with reasoning support tools for policy analysis. We study in depth and analyze this methodology in Chapter 3.From a first or high level point of view of a hierarchy of models in our methodology, we study the population and, for the moment in this level, the carrying capacity reality, which is a dynamic system in reality, of our case study region. We have created the corresponding model and then, we have used a reference study from FAO/IIASA/UN [B.3.7] that, according to our bibliography searches and the role that it is continuing to play in the international studies of this issue in developing countries, is a "key reference". We find all of this in chapters 5 (population) and 6 (carrying capacity). In fact one of the goals of this work as a whole is to involve, extend, and indeed test the results of the mentioned report using our methodology.Always from the hierarchical point of view we affront, finally, the second level representation of our issue. It is the most creative part of our study. We decide, after a deep analysis of the background, that we can succeed in developing a new agricultural model involving land and water aspects.Because water is another controversial driving factor of the global human/earth issues, we focus on it in chapter 7. We add some personal special approach according to our methodology and "philosophy".Chapter 8 is the highlight and plays, at the same time, an integrated role of the whole study and, in particular, the second level approach from the point of view of the hierarchy of the models. It allows us to make many final conclusions in several directions. About the methodology itself: extremely powerful with the interrelated combination of the different models levels approach. About the key report cited: only needs to be revised in its high input/output forecasting. The success and new possibilities in order to study the carrying capacity issue, for future policy "vision" analysis, that we now have from the point of view of agricultural reality. Finally, a dramatic foresight and call to the international decision- makers about the situation in our Case Study Region (essentially, the more stressful sub-region of East Sub-Saharan Africa). 0.4.2. OBJECTIVES AND CONTRIBUTIONSAssessment of carrying capacity is essential in the search for the condition of sustainable development. While sustainability has a global dimension focus, for carrying capacity assessment has to be on geographic areas within which the needs of population have to be satisfied consistent with the physiologically determined time constraints. Specifically, food had to be secured for the population on location and in time where the need exists. Large geographic areas cannot be sustained by food imported from distant locations on the globe. In short, some degree of food self-sufficiency is a prerequisite for sustainability. The research reported here started by identifying eastern Sub-Sahara Africa as the most vulnerable geographic region in the sense of carrying capacity. The objective of the research was to approach the question of carrying capacity in a practical integrated manner ("problematique"); i.e., in the context of real constraints imposed by environmental life support resources, rather than to "reduce" the problem to the considerations of the theoretical extreme capacity that have no chance of being achieved in reality.On the first level, a model is developed focusing on the most dominant relationship between population evolution and carrying capacity as a dynamic, time varying system. Broad based data available in international sources are used. Results of FAO research, which is recognized as being the most authoritative, is used to parameterize the model for all countries in the region as well as for the region itself. The concept of an index of carrying capacity potential is developed to assess the results of the simulation using three levels of technology inputs of agricultural production, identified by the FAO.A second level model is developed in which actual physical constraints -land, yields, water and irrigation- are explicitly taken into account. Assessment of carrying capacity supported by actual data is then conducted using the same carrying capacity potential index as the first level. Consistency of the results on the two levels has been demonstrated. This conclusion -not to be expected a priori- has justified the application of the multilevel, from the hierarchical of the models point of view, approach. As such it presents a contribution to the methodology beyond the carrying capacity problem per se. So, in summary, the main contributions of the thesis are threefold:a) Contribution to the complex systems analysis methodology based on the multilevel modeling hierarchy approach, that uses the notions of a dominant relationship rather than more detailed approximation, in order to construct models on different levels of the modeling hierarchy. Consistency of the results on two levels-not expected a priori-open the ways for application of the approach to other problem domains (global warming, water scarcity, etc.).b) Development of an agricultural (land and water) model to study carrying capacity for any country, region, on the globe. The developed models and the reasoning approach in scenario analysis can be applied to other agricultural carrying capacity problems such as, i.e., for Afghanistan, Bangladesh, etc.c) Concrete results about targets and policies for the region in the East Sub-Saharan Africa in order to improve their food self-security.

Cette thèse a comme objectif d’évaluer comment les investissements et les dépenses militaires de la sécurité intérieure a influencé la croissance économique de l'Angola, de 1975 à 2013. Divisée en trois essais, en se concentrant principalement sur les conséquences économiques des conflits armés (des belligérants intra-angolaises et externe) qui est arrivé dans le pays, surtout après l'indépendance en 1975. Tout cela bien encadré dans le contexte de l'Afrique sub-saharienne et au milieu de la guerre froide entre les puissances mondiales majeures de l’époque: États-Unis et l'URSS. Nous avons apporté ici les apréciations de la participation de trois grands mouvements qui ont participé à la lutte de libération contre le colonialisme portugais, et comment ces trois se sont affrontés dans plusieurs conflits armés, tout particulièrement entre le MPLA et l'UNITA après la défaite du FNLA en 1975 et l'exil de son leader. Aussi nous nous sommes concentrés sur la bataille de Cuito Cuanavale, dans un contexte de conflit "global", à laquelle ont participé, entre autres forces intervéniants (Angola et Afrique du Sud), les États-Unis, Cuba et l'ex-URSS, dont les coûts furent élevés, aussi matériaux, qu’ humains. Pour donner fondation et répondre aux questions on fait une régression non-paramétrique (régressions du Kernel) en utilisant le Bootstrap, pour trouver une réponse significative dans la période 1975-2001 et une autre non significative à partir de 2002 jusqu'à 2013, avec l'analyse des effets dépenses militaires dans le développement économique de l'Angola, approchant des estimations de 32 pays d'Afrique subsaharienne. / O objetivo desta tese é avaliar como os investimentos ou gastos militares para a segurança nacional influenciaram o crescimento econômico de Angola, desde 1975 até 2013. Dividimo- la em três ensaios, tendo como foco principal as consequências econômicas dos conflitos armados (intra-angolana e com beligerantes externos) que aconteceram no país, principalmente depois da independência em 1975. Estes conflitos armados estão inseridos num contexto africano subsaariano, como extensão da Guerra Fria entre as Grandes potências mundiais da época: EUA e URSS. Trouxemos aqui não só as associações da participação dos três principais movimentos (MPLA, FNLA, UNITA) que participaram da luta de libertação contra o colonialismo português, mas também relatos de como estes três se enfrentaram em vários conflitos armados, essencialmente entre o MPLA e a UNITA, depois da derrota da FNLA em 1975 e o exílio do seu líder. Também focamos a Batalha do Cuito Cuanavale, num contexto de conflito “mundial”, da qual participaram, além das duas forças intervenientes (Angola e África do Sul), também os Estados Unidos da América (EUA), Cuba e a ex-União das Repúblicas Socialistas Soviéticas (ex-URSS), e cujos custos foram altos, tanto materiais, quanto humanos. Para dar fundamento e responder a pergunta da tese “se os gastos militares para a segurança do país são fatores determinantes para o crescimento ou estagnação econômica de Angola, no período de 1975 até 2013?” fizemos uma regressão não-paramétrica (Regressões de Kernel), com o uso do Bootstrap, num enfoque da economia da defesa, sendo que encontramos significância no período de 1975 até 2001 e não-significância no período de 2002 até 2013, ao analisarmos os efeitos dos gastos militares no crescimento econômico de Angola, aproximando-o a partir de estimações de 32 países da África subsaariana. / The objective of this thesis is to evaluate how investment and military spending for homeland security influenced the economic growth of Angola, from 1975 to 2013. We divided it into three essays, focusing primarily on the economic consequences of armed conflict (intra- Angolan belligerents and external) that happened in the country, especially after independence in 1975. These armed conflicts are housed in sub-Saharan African context, as an extension of the Cold War between the major world powers at the time: U.S.A and USSR. We bring here not only the associations of the participation of three major movements that participated in the liberation struggle against Portuguese colonialism, but also reports at how these three clashed in several armed conflicts, primarily between the MPLA and UNITA, after the defeat of the FNLA in 1975 and the exile of its leader. We also focus on the Battle of Cuito Cuanavale, in a context of "global" conflict, which was attended, besides the two intervening forces (Angola and South Africa), by the United States of America (USA), Cuba and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (ex - USSR). The costs were high, both material and human. To give plea and answer the thesis question "whether the military spending to the country's security is crucial to the development of economic stagnation in Angola, from 1975 until 2013?" We made a non-parametric regression (kernel regressions), using the Bootstrap, and found significance in the period from 1975 to 2001 and not significance from 2002 until 2013, when analyzing the effects of military spending on economic development of Angola, approaching it from estimates of 32 sub-Saharan countries. / El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar cómo la inversión y el gasto militar para la seguridad nacional influyeron en el crecimiento económico de Angola de 1975 a 2013. Nos dividimos en tres ensayos, centrándose principalmente en las consecuencias económicas de los conflictos armados (beligerantes intra Angola y externo) que sucedió en el país, sobre todo después de la independencia en el año 1975. Los conflictos armados están alojados en contexto africano al sur del Sahara, como una extensión de la guerra fría entre las grandes potencias mundiales de la época: EUA y la URSS. Traemos aquí no sólo las asociaciones de la participación de los tres grandes movimientos que participaron en la lucha de liberación contra el colonialismo portugués, pero también informa de cómo estos tres se enfrentaron en varios conflictos armados, sobre todo entre el MPLA y la UNITA, después de la derrota del FNLA en 1975 y el exilio de su líder. También nos enfocamos en la batalla de Cuito Cuanavale, en un contexto de conflicto "global", al que asistieron, además de las dos fuerzas que intervienen (Angola y Sudáfrica), por los Estados Unidos de América (EE.UU.), Cuba y la antigua Unión de la República Socialista Soviética (ex - URSS). Los costos eran altos, tanto materiales como humanos. Para dar declaración y responder a la pregunta de la tesis "si el gasto militar para la seguridad del país es crucial para el desarrollo de un estancamiento económico en Angola, desde 1975 hasta el año 2013?" Hicimos una regresión no paramétrica (regresiones del kernel), utilizando el Bootstrap, y encontramos significado en el período de 1975 a 2001, y no importancia desde 2002 hasta 2013, cuando se analizan los efectos de los gastos militares en el desarrollo económico de Angola,, acercarse a ella de las estimaciones de 32 países del África subsahariana.

Cette thèse a comme objectif d’évaluer comment les investissements et les dépenses militaires de la sécurité intérieure a influencé la croissance économique de l'Angola, de 1975 à 2013. Divisée en trois essais, en se concentrant principalement sur les conséquences économiques des conflits armés (des belligérants intra-angolaises et externe) qui est arrivé dans le pays, surtout après l'indépendance en 1975. Tout cela bien encadré dans le contexte de l'Afrique sub-saharienne et au milieu de la guerre froide entre les puissances mondiales majeures de l’époque: États-Unis et l'URSS. Nous avons apporté ici les apréciations de la participation de trois grands mouvements qui ont participé à la lutte de libération contre le colonialisme portugais, et comment ces trois se sont affrontés dans plusieurs conflits armés, tout particulièrement entre le MPLA et l'UNITA après la défaite du FNLA en 1975 et l'exil de son leader. Aussi nous nous sommes concentrés sur la bataille de Cuito Cuanavale, dans un contexte de conflit "global", à laquelle ont participé, entre autres forces intervéniants (Angola et Afrique du Sud), les États-Unis, Cuba et l'ex-URSS, dont les coûts furent élevés, aussi matériaux, qu’ humains. Pour donner fondation et répondre aux questions on fait une régression non-paramétrique (régressions du Kernel) en utilisant le Bootstrap, pour trouver une réponse significative dans la période 1975-2001 et une autre non significative à partir de 2002 jusqu'à 2013, avec l'analyse des effets dépenses militaires dans le développement économique de l'Angola, approchant des estimations de 32 pays d'Afrique subsaharienne. / O objetivo desta tese é avaliar como os investimentos ou gastos militares para a segurança nacional influenciaram o crescimento econômico de Angola, desde 1975 até 2013. Dividimo- la em três ensaios, tendo como foco principal as consequências econômicas dos conflitos armados (intra-angolana e com beligerantes externos) que aconteceram no país, principalmente depois da independência em 1975. Estes conflitos armados estão inseridos num contexto africano subsaariano, como extensão da Guerra Fria entre as Grandes potências mundiais da época: EUA e URSS. Trouxemos aqui não só as associações da participação dos três principais movimentos (MPLA, FNLA, UNITA) que participaram da luta de libertação contra o colonialismo português, mas também relatos de como estes três se enfrentaram em vários conflitos armados, essencialmente entre o MPLA e a UNITA, depois da derrota da FNLA em 1975 e o exílio do seu líder. Também focamos a Batalha do Cuito Cuanavale, num contexto de conflito “mundial”, da qual participaram, além das duas forças intervenientes (Angola e África do Sul), também os Estados Unidos da América (EUA), Cuba e a ex-União das Repúblicas Socialistas Soviéticas (ex-URSS), e cujos custos foram altos, tanto materiais, quanto humanos. Para dar fundamento e responder a pergunta da tese “se os gastos militares para a segurança do país são fatores determinantes para o crescimento ou estagnação econômica de Angola, no período de 1975 até 2013?” fizemos uma regressão não-paramétrica (Regressões de Kernel), com o uso do Bootstrap, num enfoque da economia da defesa, sendo que encontramos significância no período de 1975 até 2001 e não-significância no período de 2002 até 2013, ao analisarmos os efeitos dos gastos militares no crescimento econômico de Angola, aproximando-o a partir de estimações de 32 países da África subsaariana. / The objective of this thesis is to evaluate how investment and military spending for homeland security influenced the economic growth of Angola, from 1975 to 2013. We divided it into three essays, focusing primarily on the economic consequences of armed conflict (intra- Angolan belligerents and external) that happened in the country, especially after independence in 1975. These armed conflicts are housed in sub-Saharan African context, as an extension of the Cold War between the major world powers at the time: U.S.A and USSR. We bring here not only the associations of the participation of three major movements that participated in the liberation struggle against Portuguese colonialism, but also reports at how these three clashed in several armed conflicts, primarily between the MPLA and UNITA, after the defeat of the FNLA in 1975 and the exile of its leader. We also focus on the Battle of Cuito Cuanavale, in a context of "global" conflict, which was attended, besides the two intervening forces (Angola and South Africa), by the United States of America (USA), Cuba and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (ex - USSR). The costs were high, both material and human. To give plea and answer the thesis question "whether the military spending to the country's security is crucial to the development of economic stagnation in Angola, from 1975 until 2013?" We made a non-parametric regression (kernel regressions), using the Bootstrap, and found significance in the period from 1975 to 2001 and not significance from 2002 until 2013, when analyzing the effects of military spending on economic development of Angola, approaching it from estimates of 32 sub-Saharan countries. / El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar cómo la inversión y el gasto militar para la seguridad nacional influyeron en el crecimiento económico de Angola de 1975 a 2013. Nos dividimos en tres ensayos, centrándose principalmente en las consecuencias económicas de los conflictos armados (beligerantes intra Angola y externo) que sucedió en el país, sobre todo después de la independencia en el año 1975. Los conflictos armados están alojados en contexto africano al sur del Sahara, como una extensión de la guerra fría entre las grandes potencias mundiales de la época: EUA y la URSS. Traemos aquí no sólo las asociaciones de la participación de los tres grandes movimientos que participaron en la lucha de liberación contra el colonialismo portugués, pero también informa de cómo estos tres se enfrentaron en varios conflictos armados, sobre todo entre el MPLA y la UNITA, después de la derrota del FNLA en 1975 y el exilio de su líder. También nos enfocamos en la batalla de Cuito Cuanavale, en un contexto de conflicto "global", al que asistieron, además de las dos fuerzas que intervienen (Angola y Sudáfrica), por los Estados Unidos de América (EE.UU.), Cuba y la antigua Unión de la República Socialista Soviética (ex - URSS). Los costos eran altos, tanto materiales como humanos. Para dar declaración y responder a la pregunta de la tesis "si el gasto militar para la seguridad del país es crucial para el desarrollo de un estancamiento económico en Angola, desde 1975 hasta el año 2013?" Hicimos una regresión no paramétrica (regresiones del kernel), utilizando el Bootstrap, y encontramos significado en el período de 1975 a 2001, y no importancia desde 2002 hasta 2013, cuando se analizan los efectos de los gastos militares en el desarrollo económico de Angola,, acercarse a ella de las estimaciones de 32 países del África subsahariana.

Cette thèse a comme objectif d’évaluer comment les investissements et les dépenses militaires de la sécurité intérieure a influencé la croissance économique de l'Angola, de 1975 à 2013. Divisée en trois essais, en se concentrant principalement sur les conséquences économiques des conflits armés (des belligérants intra-angolaises et externe) qui est arrivé dans le pays, surtout après l'indépendance en 1975. Tout cela bien encadré dans le contexte de l'Afrique sub-saharienne et au milieu de la guerre froide entre les puissances mondiales majeures de l’époque: États-Unis et l'URSS. Nous avons apporté ici les apréciations de la participation de trois grands mouvements qui ont participé à la lutte de libération contre le colonialisme portugais, et comment ces trois se sont affrontés dans plusieurs conflits armés, tout particulièrement entre le MPLA et l'UNITA après la défaite du FNLA en 1975 et l'exil de son leader. Aussi nous nous sommes concentrés sur la bataille de Cuito Cuanavale, dans un contexte de conflit "global", à laquelle ont participé, entre autres forces intervéniants (Angola et Afrique du Sud), les États-Unis, Cuba et l'ex-URSS, dont les coûts furent élevés, aussi matériaux, qu’ humains. Pour donner fondation et répondre aux questions on fait une régression non-paramétrique (régressions du Kernel) en utilisant le Bootstrap, pour trouver une réponse significative dans la période 1975-2001 et une autre non significative à partir de 2002 jusqu'à 2013, avec l'analyse des effets dépenses militaires dans le développement économique de l'Angola, approchant des estimations de 32 pays d'Afrique subsaharienne. / O objetivo desta tese é avaliar como os investimentos ou gastos militares para a segurança nacional influenciaram o crescimento econômico de Angola, desde 1975 até 2013. Dividimo- la em três ensaios, tendo como foco principal as consequências econômicas dos conflitos armados (intra-angolana e com beligerantes externos) que aconteceram no país, principalmente depois da independência em 1975. Estes conflitos armados estão inseridos num contexto africano subsaariano, como extensão da Guerra Fria entre as Grandes potências mundiais da época: EUA e URSS. Trouxemos aqui não só as associações da participação dos três principais movimentos (MPLA, FNLA, UNITA) que participaram da luta de libertação contra o colonialismo português, mas também relatos de como estes três se enfrentaram em vários conflitos armados, essencialmente entre o MPLA e a UNITA, depois da derrota da FNLA em 1975 e o exílio do seu líder. Também focamos a Batalha do Cuito Cuanavale, num contexto de conflito “mundial”, da qual participaram, além das duas forças intervenientes (Angola e África do Sul), também os Estados Unidos da América (EUA), Cuba e a ex-União das Repúblicas Socialistas Soviéticas (ex-URSS), e cujos custos foram altos, tanto materiais, quanto humanos. Para dar fundamento e responder a pergunta da tese “se os gastos militares para a segurança do país são fatores determinantes para o crescimento ou estagnação econômica de Angola, no período de 1975 até 2013?” fizemos uma regressão não-paramétrica (Regressões de Kernel), com o uso do Bootstrap, num enfoque da economia da defesa, sendo que encontramos significância no período de 1975 até 2001 e não-significância no período de 2002 até 2013, ao analisarmos os efeitos dos gastos militares no crescimento econômico de Angola, aproximando-o a partir de estimações de 32 países da África subsaariana. / The objective of this thesis is to evaluate how investment and military spending for homeland security influenced the economic growth of Angola, from 1975 to 2013. We divided it into three essays, focusing primarily on the economic consequences of armed conflict (intra- Angolan belligerents and external) that happened in the country, especially after independence in 1975. These armed conflicts are housed in sub-Saharan African context, as an extension of the Cold War between the major world powers at the time: U.S.A and USSR. We bring here not only the associations of the participation of three major movements that participated in the liberation struggle against Portuguese colonialism, but also reports at how these three clashed in several armed conflicts, primarily between the MPLA and UNITA, after the defeat of the FNLA in 1975 and the exile of its leader. We also focus on the Battle of Cuito Cuanavale, in a context of "global" conflict, which was attended, besides the two intervening forces (Angola and South Africa), by the United States of America (USA), Cuba and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (ex - USSR). The costs were high, both material and human. To give plea and answer the thesis question "whether the military spending to the country's security is crucial to the development of economic stagnation in Angola, from 1975 until 2013?" We made a non-parametric regression (kernel regressions), using the Bootstrap, and found significance in the period from 1975 to 2001 and not significance from 2002 until 2013, when analyzing the effects of military spending on economic development of Angola, approaching it from estimates of 32 sub-Saharan countries. / El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar cómo la inversión y el gasto militar para la seguridad nacional influyeron en el crecimiento económico de Angola de 1975 a 2013. Nos dividimos en tres ensayos, centrándose principalmente en las consecuencias económicas de los conflictos armados (beligerantes intra Angola y externo) que sucedió en el país, sobre todo después de la independencia en el año 1975. Los conflictos armados están alojados en contexto africano al sur del Sahara, como una extensión de la guerra fría entre las grandes potencias mundiales de la época: EUA y la URSS. Traemos aquí no sólo las asociaciones de la participación de los tres grandes movimientos que participaron en la lucha de liberación contra el colonialismo portugués, pero también informa de cómo estos tres se enfrentaron en varios conflictos armados, sobre todo entre el MPLA y la UNITA, después de la derrota del FNLA en 1975 y el exilio de su líder. También nos enfocamos en la batalla de Cuito Cuanavale, en un contexto de conflicto "global", al que asistieron, además de las dos fuerzas que intervienen (Angola y Sudáfrica), por los Estados Unidos de América (EE.UU.), Cuba y la antigua Unión de la República Socialista Soviética (ex - URSS). Los costos eran altos, tanto materiales como humanos. Para dar declaración y responder a la pregunta de la tesis "si el gasto militar para la seguridad del país es crucial para el desarrollo de un estancamiento económico en Angola, desde 1975 hasta el año 2013?" Hicimos una regresión no paramétrica (regresiones del kernel), utilizando el Bootstrap, y encontramos significado en el período de 1975 a 2001, y no importancia desde 2002 hasta 2013, cuando se analizan los efectos de los gastos militares en el desarrollo económico de Angola,, acercarse a ella de las estimaciones de 32 países del África subsahariana.