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The tendency of using flat panel display (FPD) to be the final receiver of digital information is going to take shape because of the digitization. Besides the traditional cathode ray tube (CRT) display , there are several display products in the FPD market, such as liquid crystal display (LCD) , Plasma Display Panels (PDP), organic light-emitter diode (OLED) and so on. Nowadays, because of the innovation of nanotechnnology, which drove the development of carbon nanotubes field effective display (CNT-FED). This new products driven by technology will confront two questions as follows : (1) The can¡¦t understand the real scale of market. (2) They can¡¦t forecast the time they need to spend to realize the market chance. Therefore , how to modify the new-products-entering model is an worthy problem to research . The research was done by using the ways of interviewing experts and secondary data collection. Then, we used scenario analysis to build the most possible scenario that CNT-FED may encounter in the future. Under the scenario, we used the approachs of STP strategy to develop th model that CNT-FED enters the market in the future.From the conclusion of this research, we know that CNT-FED should choose the market segment of big panel at the first time entering the market, and it will complete with PDP. Because the performance of CNT-FED is much better than PDP , we need to let the customers realizing and identifying this difference. Therefore, we can reduce the weakness of CNT-FED because of its high price , and , then, we can build the niche market of CNT-FED.

Deploying a large number of information security (INFOSEC) systems can provide in-depth protection for systems and networks. However, the sheer number of security alerts output by security sensors can overwhelm security analysts from performing effective analysis and taking timely response. Therefore, alert correlation is the core component in a security management system. Most of existing alert correlation techniques depend on a priori and hard-coded domain knowledge that lead to their limited capabilities of detecting new attack strategies. These approaches also focus more on the aggregation and analysis of raw security alerts, and build basic or low-level attack scenarios. This thesis focuses on discovering novel attack strategies with analysis of security alerts. Our framework helps security administrator aggregate redundant alerts, intelligently correlate security alerts, analyze attack strategies, and take appropriate actions against forthcoming attacks. In alert correlation, we have developed an integrated correlation system with three complementary correlation mechanisms. We have developed a probabilistic-based correlation engine that incorporates domain knowledge to correlate alerts that have direct causal relationship. We have developed a statistical analysis-based and a temporal analysis-based correlation engines to discover attack transition patterns in which attack steps do not have direct causal relationship in terms of security and performance measure but exhibit statistical and temporal patterns. We construct attack scenarios and conduct attack path analysis based on the correlation results. Security analysts are presented with aggregated information on attack strategies from the integrated correlation system. In attack plan recognition, we address the challenges of identifying attacker's high-level strategies and intentions as well as predicting upcoming attacks. We apply graph-based techniques to correlating isolated attack scenarios derived from low-level alert correlation based on their relationship in attack plans. We conduct probabilistic inference to evaluate the likelihood of attack goal(s) and predict potential upcoming attacks based on observed attack activities. We evaluate our algorithms using DARPA's Grand Challenge Problem (GCP) data sets and live traffic data collected from our backbone network. The results show that our approach can effectively discover novel attack strategies, provide a quantitative analysis of attack scenarios and identify attack plans.

Tea is used to be Taiwan¡¦s primary exchange-earning product. And the way Taiwan tea develops further establishes the steadfast position for Taiwan tea leave in Oolong-tea market. From the aspect of section specialization, Taiwan tea is good in quality, equipped with potential competence, thus, worth cultivating. However, as long as open market is concerned, tea leave also suffers from high producing cost as other agrarian products; even harvested by machine and given up the outlook to reduce the cost, it still can¡¦t compete with import tea leave in price matter. Compared with former similar research, the breakthrough of this research is that it mainly focuses on tea runner¡¦s operational strategy analysis as well as the choice from scenario analysis. With economic globalization makes consumers¡¦ choice tend to be diverse as well as the importance of the manager facing the consumer in the first hand in the supply chain also increases with time, the effective strategy not only benefits the company runner, but also secures the profits of producers, further indirectly brings industrial stabilization. The environmental change by economic globalization, such as world trade organization, ECFA, which is the change in trade condition, will bring acute variation in the short run. The function which analyses the past data to evaluate change in the future is limited; therefore, the research is conducted through qualitative scenario analysis to analyze the tea market from the external condition. The research intends to cut in from the tea-runner¡¦s perspective. Through the process of scenario analysis, selecting the three external key factors based on strategic dimension that affects tea-runners: customer demand, supply management, policy and environment inclination, as well as the fifteen driving factors that influence dimension, it integrates and induces the two possible scenario of the uncertain axial structure: the situation of imported tea leave, and the difference in tea leave between Taiwan and China, which has impact on operational change in the future. Through deep interview, it¡¦s discovered that most of the managers believe that the development of Taiwan tea in the future lies in China¡¦s demand, but lack of effective method on grasping the business from Chinese¡¦s free travel. The research holds that the corporate runners should promote their reputation through Taiwanese businessmen and military dependents as an access to enter China market. In the scenario of continuing the recent status, the three strategies are suggested: expand the export affair in domestic retail, diversify in management, and specialize in management. As for the scenario of open challenge, it¡¦s advised that manager should rectify the name of Taiwan tea in China. And in the scenario of failure in export, diversify in management is recommended to tackle with this situation.

System Dynamics Model follow the procedure for ¡§data collecting ¡÷ model design ¡÷ analysis ¡÷ modification¡¨ to analyze problems on a project by project base; however, this process is just a principle report and it cannot directly and continuously affect business decision. Furthermore, after the completion of each project, data often is locked in the file room and cannot be reused. If simulation tools of System Dynamics allow user to connect the dynamics data source from the enterprise, potential benefits will be: 1. After analysis, with business data, model can be simulated time after time. This enable the repeating use of previous investment. 2. Decision makers can simulated condition of the future use the enterprise online data . The main purpose of this research at probe interaction of System Dynamics Model and data source. Under above-mentioned structure. In the phase, we propose to add a ¡§Data Source¡¨ component in traditional structure of the System Dynamics model. The new component will connected model and data source, and keep the independent executed of the model. And in addition to the design of the structure of the model, this research also according to the structure, design physical simulation tools ¡V we call the tool Maria. Maria can provide the function of building and simulating System Dynamics model like the traditional simulate tool, and connect model and dynamic data source. We use a simple model to prove the value of System Dynamics model and data source, and the future prospect of the structure.

With ever-increasing pressures on limited water supplies in arid regions, water managers are forced to make critical decisions about the management of water resources - sometimes under considerable uncertainty. Given the large number of stresses on existing water systems, proper management requires the consideration of all different factors that may contribute to water use and consumption. As water management becomes more focused on the issue of sustainability, processes traditionally thought of as non-water-related and irrelevant to water management are now becoming very pertinent. In particular, the consequences of changes in climate, population, land use, and various types of water usage (agricultural, environmental, domestic, and urban) are of considerable interest.With increasing uncertainty about the future, conventional methods of decision-analysis are increasingly unable to suitably quantify the future impacts of policy decisions, and they are also unable to provide a clear contrast between impacts of historical policy decisions and possible future management decisions. An analytical approach that is sensitive to qualitative effects of water-related decision-making will therefore be more useful towards improving management practices. Scenario development is one such tool that can be used to examine future implications of water management, and thereby shed light on the potential consequences of implementing different operational and institutional policies. The objective of this work is to propose a formal scenario development methodology applicable to water resources management issues. This framework is applied and evaluated on a regional scale for the U.S. southwest and on a local scale for the state of Arizona.The research presented here is comprised of several components; (i) a review of existing literature on scenarios, scenario studies, and scenario applications; (ii) a retrospective analysis of water management-related scenario applications that examines the implications of scenario-influenced strategies previously implemented in Arizona, (iii) the adoption of a formal scenario development approach for water resource issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S., utilizing an example application in the Upper San Pedro Basin in southern Arizona, and (iv) a comprehensive application of the scenario development process to the Verde River Watershed in northern Arizona through a simplified small-scale scenario case study approach.

Background: The markets conditions are changing and recent research show that the era of offshoring manufacturing and jobs to foreign countries now is coming to an end. Nearshoring gives the possibility to overcome the challenges that offshoring causes. Furthermore, both the internal parameters and key driving forces in the environment is important to consider in the decision of where to locate the future supplier base. Purpose: The purpose for this thesis is to identify how the future supplier base for the glass lighting segment should be located, taken into consideration the internal parameters availability, sustainability, product quality and cost, and the key driving forces in the environment. Methodology: In this thesis a case study approach is used, with a positivistic perspective and an abductive approach. To identify the key driving forces, the methodology of a scenario analysis is used. Conclusions: Considering the internal parameters and the key driving forces in the environment a use of three nearshoring hubs, closely located to the sales markets, Asia, Europe and North America, is supported for the future supplier base for the glass lighting segment.

As the global warming brings more and more disasters, controlling greenhouse gas emission is one of the main global crucial issues nowadays. As one of the main emitters in the world, China faces more and more international pressure to reduce the emission, so it is urgent to make the transition to a low carbon economy.At the same time, China has been going through the fast urbanization process as shown in the “Northam Curve”, and the current urbanization mode requires the demand of the carbon-intensive consumption, and could lead to the massive carbon emission as well. However, it is contradictory to the long-time sustainable development in China. So, under the current condition, the reduction plan needs to be fit in the Chinese demand, so it is very crucial, and requires innovation and creation to analyze the reduction factor and find the balance point between the urbanization and low carbon development mode. Regarding to the different urbanization rate and economic development modes characters between the East, Central, West part of China, this thesis uses inductive and deductive method to study. Firstly, it chooses one province from each region to investigate. Then it integrated urbanization factor into Kaya equation to study different factors impacts on the carbon dioxide emission in the three sample provinces. It also selected the co-integration econometrics method to study the equilibrium relationship between the carbon dioxide emission and other main factors. Through analyzing the current reduction plan, it explains and forecasts the possible emission in 2015. The result suggests that the anticipated carbon dioxide emission might be able to achieve under the transition to a low carbon economy mode. Different regions should have their own feasible plans through controlling the urbanization rate, slowing the economic development rate and through reducing the energy intensity, improving the energy structure.

The research presented in the thesis develops an approach for the estimation and mapping of pollutant spreading in catchments and the associated uncertainty and risk of pollution. The first step in the approach is the quantification and mapping of statistical and geographical distributions of advective solute travel times from pollutant input locations to downstream recipients. In the second step the travel time distributions are used to quantify and map the spreading of specific pollutants and the related risk of water pollution. In both steps, random variability of transport properties and processes is accounted for within a probabilistic framework, while different scenarios are used to account for statistically unquantifiable uncertainty about system characteristics, processes and future developments. This scenario approach enables a transparent analysis of uncertainty effects that is relatively easy to interpret. It also helps identify conservative assumptions and pollutant situations for which further investigations are most needed in order to reduce the uncertainty. The results for different investigated scenarios can further be used to assess the total risk to exceed given water quality standards downstream of pollutant sources. Specific thesis results show that underestimation of pollutant transport variability, and in particular of those transport pathways with much shorter than average travel times, may lead to substantial underestimation of pollutant spreading in catchment areas. By contrast, variations in pollutant attenuation rate generally lead to lower estimated spreading than do constant attenuation conditions. A scenario of constant attenuation rate and high travel time variability, with a large fraction of relatively short travel times, therefore appears to be a reasonable conservative scenario to use when information is lacking for more precise determination of actual transport and attenuation conditions.

This research has assessed the environmental and economic sustainability of domestic micro-generation technologies under UK conditions as both individual technologies and as part of a range of future energy supply scenarios for the domestic sector extending to 2050. A life cycle approach has been used for both environmental and economic assessment considering the relevant sustainability impacts, which include global warming potential, the depletion of fossil fuels, human toxicity and life cycle cost. The micro-generation technologies studied were selected on the basis of their ability to contribute to current and future energy supply and also their suitability under UK conditions. These technologies were micro-wind, solar photovoltaics, micro-combined heat and power, heat pumps and solar thermal water heating. The technologies were compared with one another and with the incumbent technologies, which were grid electricity and natural gas condensing boilers. Three journal papers have been published as a result of this research. The evaluation of micro-generation technologies on a life cycle basis indicated that despite reducing certain environmental impacts, all technologies increased at least one and as many as eight environmental impacts compared to their current fossil-fuel alternatives. All micro-generation technologies would reduce global warming and fossil fuel depletion compared to conventional technologies, highlighting their potential to contribute to energy policy goals. However, they cannot currently compete with conventional technologies for capital cost, although their life cycle costs – taking into account incentives from schemes such as Feed-in Tariffs – can be competitive. Considering both environmental and economic implications suggested that Stirling engine micro-combined heat and power is one of the most sustainable options for heat and electricity generation. The results also suggested that heat pumps should not be receiving incentives from the Government due to their poor environmental performance. Four potential future energy supply scenarios for the UK domestic sector were studied extending to 2050. The scenarios varied in terms of the level of effort made to improve the environmental and economic sustainability of the sector. Scenario 1 involved no further implementation of micro-generation beyond 2009, increasing energy demand and a grid electricity dominated by fossil fuels. In contrast, Scenario 4 portrayed a future where there is 1 micro-generation technology per dwelling, a 50% reduction in demand and almost complete decarbonisation of the grid mix. The results indicated that a huge transformation of the sector is required to achieve the 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. This would include halving energy demand, almost complete decarbonisation of grid electricity and the installation of a micro-generation unit in every dwelling. To conclude, despite the level of interest micro-generation is currently receiving, this work suggested their usage may not necessarily be as beneficial as some believe. Their use does reduce greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption; however, to have any influence on energy policy goals this use would have to be widespread. Furthermore, reduced emissions will come at the expense of other environmental impacts. Finally, with a number of the technologies not yet cost competitive – even with incentives – the Government focus on measures to reduce demand and decarbonise the grid may prove to be a better option as this work suggested that energy policy goals could be achieved without high penetration of micro-generation.