The Utah Department of Transportation developed life-cycle benefit-cost analysis spreadsheets that allow engineers and analysts to evaluate multiple safety countermeasures. The spreadsheets have included the functionality to evaluate a roadway based on the 11 facility types from the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) with the use of crash severity distributions. The HSM suggests that local agencies develop crash severity distributions based on their local crash data. The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Brigham Young University worked with the Statistics Department to develop crash severity distributions for the facility types from the HSM.The primary objective of this research was to utilize available roadway characteristic and crash data to develop crash severity distributions for the 11 facility types in the HSM. These objectives were accomplished by segmenting the roadway data based on homogeneity and developing statistical models to determine the distributions. Due to insufficient data, the facility types of freeway speed change lanes and freeway ramps were excluded from the scope of this research. In order to accommodate more roadways within the research, the facility type definitions were expanded to include more through lanes.The statistical models that were developed for this research include multivariate regression, frequentist binomial regression, frequentist multinomial, and Bayesian multinomial regression models. A cross-validation study was conducted to determine the models that best described the data. Bayesian Information Criterion, Deviance Information Criterion, and Root-Mean-Square Error values were compared to conduct the comparison. Based on the cross-validation study, it was determined that the Bayesian multinomial regression model is the most effective model to describe the crash severity distributions for the nine facility types evaluated.

Budgets for transportation improvements are limited so it is important for governments to focus on improving locations most in need of safety funding. The objective of the Two-Output Model for Safety (TOMS) is to provide the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) a reliable method to prioritize safety improvements on state-owned roadways among the different regions. This research will improve the existing Crash Analysis Methodology for Segments (CAMS) and Intersection Safety Analysis Methodology (ISAM) being used to analyze crashes on Utah roadways. The scope of this project is improving on the existing CAMS and ISAM to work together within R, to incorporate segment and intersection severity in safety hot spot analysis, to develop overall severity distributions, and to develop limited recommendations and conclusions related to the research. TOMS uses UDOT data to create a statistical input. Each segment is homogenous with respect to five variables: average annual daily traffic, functional class, number of through lanes, speed limit, and urban code. Intersections are provided as a separate dataset. In the statistical analyses performed on the data, five years of crash data (2016-2020) are used to determine a weighted risk score for segments and intersections of similar characteristics. Those segments or intersections with excess weighted risk scores are designated as crash hot spots. Two-page technical reports with road characteristics and crash data are created for the top 10 hot spots for segments and intersections in Utah. The reports are sent to UDOT where region engineers may review and determine which locations might be addressed.

[pt] O gerenciamento de risco em instituições bancárias, mais do que mera imposição das agências reguladoras distingue-se como fator de sucesso na melhoria dos processos, aumentando o resultado financeiro. Após o Acordo da Basiléia, a gerência de riscos de mercado e de crédito, cuja atuação se dá sobre as receitas, passou a ser realizada. Entretanto, alguns riscos atuam sobre as despesas, destacando-se o operacional, que é o risco de perdas oriundas de problemas com controles internos, sistemas, pessoas e eventos externos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi elaborar uma revisão abrangente da literatura e um protótipo de sistema computacional que permite medir o VaR do risco operacional de uma unidade de risco, utilizando o Modelo de Distribuição de Perdas (LDA), e aplicar modelos causais que expliquem estas perdas. Este protótipo é uma aplicação Internet/intranet desenvolvida na linguagem ASP e utilizou o MS-Access como banco de dados. Para os cálculos estatísticos, implementou-se uma interface de comunicação aplicação/MATLAB. A revisão da literatura objetivou a familiarização com conceitos básicos de risco operacional descritos pelo Comitê da Basiléia. Adicionalmente, apresentou detalhes técnicos para implementação do LDA, tais como Distribuição de Freqüência e de Severidade, métodos para determinação da distribuição de perdas operacionais e construção da base de dados de perdas. Independente das particularidades institucionais, esse protótipo permite a visualização das providências estratégicas e operacionais a serem tomadas para implementação e implantação de um sistema similar. Marca um ponto de partida para o desenvolvimento de um produto abrangente de gerenciamento de risco operacional nas mais variadas instituições e segmentos de mercado. / [en] The risk management in financial institutions, more than just an imposition of the regulatory agencies, represents a success factor in the processes enhancement, elevating the financial results. After Basel Accord, credit and market risks management, which acts over earnings, were implemented. However, some risks are associated to the expenses, such as the operational risk, related to the losses from internal control, systems, human and external events problems. The aim of the present study was the elaboration of an extensive literature review and the development of a computation system prototype able to measure the operational risk VaR of a risk unit, using the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) and to apply causal models that explain these losses. This prototype is an Internet/intranet application developed in ASP language, using MS-Access as database. For statistical evaluation, an interface between the application and MATLAB was implemented. The literature review pretended to give a better understanding of the basic concepts of operational risk described by the Basel Committee. In addition, it presented technical details for LDA implementation, such as Frequency and Severity Distribution, methods for the distribution of the operational losses determination and losses database construction. Independent of institutional peculiarities, this prototype allows the observation of strategic and operational providences to be taken for implementation and implantation of a similar system. It determines a startingpoint in the development of an operational risk management product valuable in several institutions and market segments.