Dans quelle mesure les variations du niveau marin actuelles agissent-elles sur la mobilité du trait de côte? Cette question est difficile en raison du caractère lacunaire des jeux de données côtières disponibles. Cette thèse montre tout d'abord qu'il est possible d'évaluer l'élévation relative du niveau de la mer en combinant l'interférométrie radar satellitaire l'analyse de données géodésiques ponctuelles telles que le GPS. Elle examine ensuite le cas de littoraux ayant fait l'expérience d'une élévation du niveau de la mer sensiblement différente de la moyenne globale lors des 50 dernières années. Dans le cas d'atolls de Polynésie Française, les données disponibles montrent le rôle majeur des vagues saisonnières et cycloniques pour contrôler l'évolution du trait de côte. Dans certains secteurs, les effets des vagues sont suspectés se combiner avec l'élévation du niveau de la mer pour favoriser l'érosion de secteurs abrités. Dans le cas de la base de données côtière européenne Eurosion, environ 17 000 observations côtières sont disponibles et peuvent être analysées par une méthode d'exploration de données basée sur les réseaux Bayésiens. Une partie de la variabilité spatiale de l'évolution du trait de côte s'explique par le fait que les littoraux de Fennoscandie sont majoritairement en accrétion, alors qu'ils sont affectés par une baisse du niveau de la mer liée au rebond post-glaciaire. D'une manière générale, ces résultats suggèrent qu'il est encore trop tôt pour observer des effets érosifs évidents de l'élévation du niveau de la mer d'origine climatique. Une analyse probabiliste de l'équation du bilan sédimentaire côtier montre que si cette équation est vérifiée, les effets de l'élévation du niveau de la mer deviendront perceptibles à partir de la seconde moitié du XXIe siècle si les objectifs de réduction des gaz à effet de serre ne sont pas atteints. Finalement, cette thèse ouvre un champ de recherches dans le domaine des mathématiques appliquées pour l'étude des conséquences du changement climatique et de l'élévation du niveau de la mer dans les zones côtières. / To which extent does present day sea-level rise affect shoreline changes? This question remains largely open due to the lack of knowledge and data regarding coastal hydrosedimentary processes and relative sea-level changes (i.e., including vertical ground motions). This PhD Thesis first addresses the question of measuring relative sea-level changes using a combination of geodetic data, including satellite-radar interferometry and permanent GPS stations. Then, it examines the case of coasts that experienced sea-level changes significantly different from the global average over the last 50 years. In the case of atoll islands of French Polynesia, the available data illustrate the major role of southern, trade and cyclonic waves in controlling shoreline changes. For some sheltered coasts, waves are suspected to combine with sea-level rise to favour shoreline retreat. In the case of the European coastal database Eurosion, about 17 000 coastal observations are available and have been analysed using a Bayesian network. Here, part of the spatial variability of shoreline changes can be explained by the fact that Fennoscandian coasts are not only accreting, but also uplifting due to the post-glacial rebound. Overall, these results suggest that it is still too early to observe obvious effects of climate-induced sea-level rise. A probabilistic analysis of the coastal sedimentary equation shows that under common assumptions on hydrosedimentary processes, sea-level rise impacts for beaches should become observable during the second half of the 21st century, if the efforts to maintain climate warming below the 2 C threshold fail. Finally, this PhD thesis offers opportunities for stimulating future research in the field of mathematics applied to the question of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal zones.

Nesta dissertação apresenta-se a evolução morfológica e sedimentológica no Arco Praial de Massaguaçú, Litoral Norte do Estado de São Paulo, em uma escala espaço-temporal histórica e de eventos. O Arco Praial de Massaguaçú localiza-se ao norte da Baia de Caraguatatuba e tem uma extensão de aproximadamente 7,5km. A metodologia consistiu na determinação da variação da linha de costa através da análise de fotografias aéreas de 1962, 1977, 1994 e 2001 e GPS para 2006. Foram obtidos 174 perfis bidimensionais e 16 perfis tridimensionais coletados em cinco levantamentos de campos entre os meses de novembro de 2006 e março de 2008 utilizando o método de DGPS. Foram coletadas ainda 176 amostras sedimentares na zona de espraiamento do Arco Praial, junto ao último ponto de cada perfil bidimensional, sendo uma coleta por perfil. Os resultados demonstraram que a maior parte da praia sofreu progradação entre os anos de 1962 e 1994, sendo observada mudança nesta tendência entre 1994 e 2006. Os dados de morfologia e sedimentologia mostraram grande variabilidade espaço temporal, sendo que estas parecem estar relacionadas a variações anuais de energia de onda. Foi identificada uma Zona de Erosão Acentuada (ZEA) na Parte Central do Arco Praial e dividiu-se a praia em cinco áreas de risco, onde este é menor nas extremidades do Arco Praial e aumenta em direção a região central. / This dissertation characterize the morphological and sedimentological evolution of Massaguaçú Bay Beach, São Paulo State, Northeast Brazil, in a Historical and events spatial-temporal scale. Massaguaçú Bay Beach is localized northward of Caraguatatuba Bay and has approximately 7.5Km length. The methodology consisted on the determination of the shoreline changes with Aerophotographic analyses of 1962, 1977, 1994 and 2001, 2006 shoreline was taken with GPS. The DGPS Method was used to obtain 174 two-dimensional profiles and 16 tri-dimensional profiles in 5 field campaigns conducted between November, 2006 and March, 2008. 176 sand samples were collect in the swash zone, next to the last position of each two-dimensional profile. Data showed that almost all beach demonstrated shoreline progradation between 1962 and 1994, this tendency change between 1994 and 2006 with the possibility of increase of the retraction processes. It was observed a great variability in morphological and sedimentological data, this appear to be related with variations on the wave height pattern during the year. It has identified an Erosional Hotspot in the central area of the beach and the beach has divided in five risck areas where the risck increase from the extremities to the center of the beach.

River mouths are very active coastal regions. Continuous sediment supply by the river and the movement by wave action cause the shoreline to change in time and space. Modeling of shoreline changes is an essential step before the design of any coastal engineering project. This research aimed to develop a system of numerical models to present the shoreline changes around a river mouth. The system of numerical models has three components: 1) modeling of nearshore wave characteristics, 2) modeling of longshore sand transport rates using the results of the first component, 3) modeling of shoreline changes using the estimated sand transport rates. Thus, firstly, deep water wave characteristics including the annual wave rose affecting Manavgat River mouth have been obtained from the database of NATO TU-WAVES Project. Then REF/DIF1 and SWAN nearshore wave models have been used to find out nearshore wave conditions. Since the results obtained from REF/DIF1 wave model have been found to be more reasonable compared to SWAN&rsquo / s output, REF/DIF1 wave model has been used in preparing a time series nearshore reference wave file with three hours time interval. This reference file has been used to run GENESIS. Last step of the numerical shoreline change modelling of Manavgat River mouth was the calibration procedure in which the &ldquo / transport parameters&rdquo / k1 and k2 have been determined. As there is lack of measurements of shoreline positions that can be used in calibrating shoreline change model, k1 and k2 has been approximately found to be k1=0.516 and k2=0.9 by using an empirical sediment transport formula. As a future study, it is recommended that when the protection structure controlling the river mouth is finished, the measurements of shoreline position behind the structure should be used in verification of shoreline change model in order to get more accurate results.

Nesta dissertação apresenta-se a evolução morfológica e sedimentológica no Arco Praial de Massaguaçú, Litoral Norte do Estado de São Paulo, em uma escala espaço-temporal histórica e de eventos. O Arco Praial de Massaguaçú localiza-se ao norte da Baia de Caraguatatuba e tem uma extensão de aproximadamente 7,5km. A metodologia consistiu na determinação da variação da linha de costa através da análise de fotografias aéreas de 1962, 1977, 1994 e 2001 e GPS para 2006. Foram obtidos 174 perfis bidimensionais e 16 perfis tridimensionais coletados em cinco levantamentos de campos entre os meses de novembro de 2006 e março de 2008 utilizando o método de DGPS. Foram coletadas ainda 176 amostras sedimentares na zona de espraiamento do Arco Praial, junto ao último ponto de cada perfil bidimensional, sendo uma coleta por perfil. Os resultados demonstraram que a maior parte da praia sofreu progradação entre os anos de 1962 e 1994, sendo observada mudança nesta tendência entre 1994 e 2006. Os dados de morfologia e sedimentologia mostraram grande variabilidade espaço temporal, sendo que estas parecem estar relacionadas a variações anuais de energia de onda. Foi identificada uma Zona de Erosão Acentuada (ZEA) na Parte Central do Arco Praial e dividiu-se a praia em cinco áreas de risco, onde este é menor nas extremidades do Arco Praial e aumenta em direção a região central. / This dissertation characterize the morphological and sedimentological evolution of Massaguaçú Bay Beach, São Paulo State, Northeast Brazil, in a Historical and events spatial-temporal scale. Massaguaçú Bay Beach is localized northward of Caraguatatuba Bay and has approximately 7.5Km length. The methodology consisted on the determination of the shoreline changes with Aerophotographic analyses of 1962, 1977, 1994 and 2001, 2006 shoreline was taken with GPS. The DGPS Method was used to obtain 174 two-dimensional profiles and 16 tri-dimensional profiles in 5 field campaigns conducted between November, 2006 and March, 2008. 176 sand samples were collect in the swash zone, next to the last position of each two-dimensional profile. Data showed that almost all beach demonstrated shoreline progradation between 1962 and 1994, this tendency change between 1994 and 2006 with the possibility of increase of the retraction processes. It was observed a great variability in morphological and sedimentological data, this appear to be related with variations on the wave height pattern during the year. It has identified an Erosional Hotspot in the central area of the beach and the beach has divided in five risck areas where the risck increase from the extremities to the center of the beach.

<p dir="ltr">The recent surge in water levels within the Great Lakes has laid bare the vulnerability of the surrounding coastal areas. Over the past few years, communities along the Great Lakes coast have struggled with widespread coastal transformations, witnessing phenomena such as shoreline retreat, alterations in habitat, significant recession of bluffs and dunes, infrastructure and property damage, coastal flooding, and the failure of coastal protection structures. Unlike the ocean coasts, the Great Lakes coastal regions experience a unique confluence of large interannual water level fluctuations, coastal storms, and ice cover dynamics, which complicates the ongoing coastal management endeavors. To address this multifaceted challenge, the interplay between all these factors and their impact on coastal changes should be understood and applied to improve the resilience of Great Lakes coastal areas.</p><p><br></p><p dir="ltr">In this dissertation, several steps were taken to improve knowledge of coastal processes in the Great Lakes, spanning from the initial use of remote sensing for quantifying coastal changes to the subsequent stages of modeling and predicting shoreline changes as well as leveraging machine learning techniques to simulate and forecast influential factors like waves and ice cover. First, a fully automated shoreline detection algorithm was developed to quantify the shoreline changes in Lake Michigan, detecting the most vulnerable areas, and determining the main factors responsible for the spatial variability in the shoreline changes. Additionally, a reduced complexity model was designed to simulate the shoreline changes in Lake Michigan by considering both waves and water level fluctuations, which significantly improved the shoreline changes modeling and forecasting for Lake Michigan. Furthermore, new deep learning-based frameworks based on the Convolution Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) and Convolution Neural Network (CNN) were introduced to model and extend the current records of wave heights and ice cover datasets, adding 70% and 50% data to the existing waves and ice time series respectively. Finally, the extended waves and ice time series were used to study the long-term trends and the correlation between the interannual water level and waves changes, revealing a statically significant decreasing trend in the ice cover over Lake Michigan of 0.6 days/year, and an increasing trend in the waves interannual variability at Chicago area.</p>