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Integrating subsurface ocean temperatures in the statistical prediction of ENSO and Australian rainfall & streamflowRuiz, Jose Eric, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, UNSW January 2006 (has links)
As a global climate phenomenon, the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) involves the coupling of the ocean and the atmosphere. Most climate prediction studies have, by far, only investigated the teleconnections between global climatic anomalies and the ???surface??? predictors of ENSO. The prediction models resulting from these studies have generally suffered from inadequate, if not the lack of, skill across the so-called boreal ???spring barrier???. This is illustrated in the first part of this thesis where the applicability of the SOI phase for long-lead rainfall projections in Australia is discussed. With the increasing availability of subsurface ocean temperature data, the characteristics of the Pacific Ocean???s heat content and its role in ENSO are now better understood. The second part of this thesis investigated the predictability of ENSO using the thermocline as a predictor. While the persistence and SST-based ENSO hindcasts dropped in skill across the spring barrier, the thermocline-based hindcasts remained skillful even up to a lag of eighteen months. Continuing on the favorable results of ENSO prediction, the third part of this thesis extended the use of the thermocline in the prediction of Australia???s rainfall and streamflow. When compared to models that use ???surface??? predictors, the model that incorporated thermocline information resulted in more skillful projections of rainfall and streamflow especially at long lead-times. More importantly, significant increases in skill of autumn and winter projections demonstrate the ability of the subsurface ocean to retain some climatic memory across the predictability barrier. This resilience can be attributed to the high persistence of the ocean heat content during the first half of the year. Based on weighting, the model averaging exercise also affirmed the superiority of the ???subsurface??? model over the ???surface??? models in terms of streamflow projections. The encouraging findings of this study could have far-reaching implications not only to the science of ENSO prediction but also to the more pragmatic realm of hydrologic forecasting. What this study has demonstrated is an alternative predictor that is suitable for the long range forecasting of ENSO, rainfall and streamflow. With better hydrologic forecasting comes significant improvement in the management of reservoirs which eventually leads to an increase in the reliability and sufficiency of water supply provision.
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Pedictability of ENSO : optimal error growth and forecast skill /Chen, Ying-quei. January 1996 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D. ) University of Washington, 1996. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [143]-146).
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The role of herbivores and productivity on community structure of rocky shores of the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador /Vinueza, Luis R. January 1900 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Oregon State University, 2010. / Printout. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 127-138). Also available on the World Wide Web.
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The response of precipitation and surface hydrology to tropical macro-climate forcing in ColombiaMarín, Saul. January 2004 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Colorado State University, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references.
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Influence of Antarctic oscillation on intraseasonal variability of large-scale circulations over the Western North Pacific /Burton, Kenneth R. January 2005 (has links) (PDF)
Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2005. / Thesis Advisor(s): Patrick Harr. Includes bibliographical references (p. 91-92). Also available online.
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Summertime teleconnections associated with US climate anomalies and their maintenanceWang, Zhuo, January 2004 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 162-175).
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Interannual variability of atmospheric carbon dioxide flux in the equatorial Pacific OceanVerschell, Mark Alan, January 1996 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Florida State University, 1996. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references.
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Modulation of intraseasonal (25-70 day) processes by the superimposed ENSO cycle across the Pacific BasinSchrage, Jon M., January 1998 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Purdue University, 1998. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 135-141).
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Observational and analytic analysis of the Pacific decadal oscillationWang, Xiaochun. January 2001 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 176-184).
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Variability of intraseasonal precipitation extremes associated with ENSO in PanamaPaz, Gloria Arrocha. O'Brien, James J. January 2006 (has links)
Thesis (M. S.)--Florida State University, 2006. / Advisor: James J. O'Brien, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Meteorology. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed Sept. 21, 2006). Document formatted into pages; contains ix, 40 pages. Includes bibliographical references.
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