Multi-objective design or extended design of Water Distribution Systems (WDSs) has received more attention in recent years. It is of particular interest for obtaining the trade-offs between cost and hydraulic benefit to support the decision-making process. The design problem is usually formulated as a multi-objective optimisation problem, featuring a huge search space associated with a great number of constraints. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) are popular tools for addressing this kind of problem because they are capable of approximating the Pareto-optimal front effectively in a single run. However, these methods are often held by the “No Free Lunch” theorem (Wolpert and Macready 1997) that there is no guarantee that they can perform well on a wide range of cases. To overcome this drawback, many hybrid optimisation methods have been proposed to take advantage of multiple search mechanisms which can synergistically facilitate optimisation. In this thesis, a novel hybrid algorithm, called Genetically Adaptive Leaping Algorithm for approXimation and diversitY (GALAXY), is proposed. It is a dedicated optimiser for solving the discrete two-objective design or extended design of WDSs, minimising the total cost and maximising the network resilience, which is a surrogate indicator of hydraulic benefit. GALAXY is developed using the general framework of MOEAs with substantial improvements and modifications tailored for WDS design. It features a generational framework, a hybrid use of the traditional Pareto-dominance and the epsilon-dominance concepts, an integer coding scheme, and six search operators organised in a high-level teamwork hybrid paradigm. In addition, several important strategies are implemented within GALAXY, including the genetically adaptive strategy, the global information sharing strategy, the duplicates handling strategy and the hybrid replacement strategy. One great advantage of GALAXY over other state-of-the-art MOEAs lies in the fact that it eliminates all the individual parameters of search operators, thus providing an effective and efficient tool to researchers and practitioners alike for dealing with real-world cases. To verify the capability of GALAXY, an archive of benchmark problems of WDS design collected from the literature is first established, ranging from small to large cases. GALAXY has been applied to solve these benchmark design problems and its achievements in terms of both ultimate and dynamic performances are compared with those obtained by two state-of-the-art hybrid algorithms and two baseline MOEAs. GALAXY generally outperforms these MOEAs according to various numerical indicators and a graphical comparison tool. For the largest problem considered in this thesis, GALAXY does not perform as well as its competitors due to the limited computational budget in terms of number of function evaluations. All the algorithms have also been applied to solve the challenging Anytown rehabilitation problem, which considers both the design and operation of a system from the extended period simulation perspective. The performance of each algorithm is sensitive to the quality of the initial population and the random seed used. GALAXY and the Pareto-dominance based MOEAs are superior to the epsilon-dominance based methods; however, there is a tie between GALAXY and the Pareto-dominance based approaches. At the end, a summary of this thesis is provided and relevant conclusions are drawn. Recommendations for future research work are also made.

One of the main challenges in the implementation of renewable energy is the mismatch between supply and demand. Energy storage has been identified as one of the solutions to the mismatch problem. Among various storage technologies, thermal energy storage (TES) is foreseen to have a significant role to achieve a low carbon energy systems because of the large share of thermal energy demand and its relatively low cost. However, integrating TES into energy systems requires careful design and implementation since otherwise potential financial and environmental savings may not be achieved. Computational-based design tools are ubiquitous in the design process of modern energy systems and can be broadly categorised into two methodologies: optimisation and simulation. In both cases, designing an energy system with storage technology is significantly more complicated than those without, mainly due to the coupling of variables between time steps. This thesis is concerned with two facets of the application of TES in energy systems. First, the role of TES in improving the performance of renewable-based domestic heating systems. Second, the implementation of optimisation and simulation tools in the design of energy systems with integrated TES. They are addressed by examining two case studies that illustrate the spatial and temporal variance of energy systems: a single dwelling heat pump system with a hot water tank, and a solar district heating system with a borehole thermal energy storage. In the single dwelling case study, the technical and financial benefits of TES installation in a heat pump system are illustrated by the optimisation model. A simulation model which utilises the optimisation results is developed to assess the accuracy of the optimisation results and the potential interaction between the two methodologies. The solar district heating case study is utilised to highlight the potential of a time decomposition technique, the multiple time grids method, in reducing the computational time in the operational optimisation of the system. Furthermore, the case study is also employed to illustrate the potential of installing a similar system in the UK. The latter study was performed by developing a validated simulation model of the solar district heating system. The findings of the analyses reported in this thesis exemplify the potential of TES in a domestic and community-level heating system in the UK. They also provide a basis for recommendations on the improved use of optimisation and simulation tools in the design process of energy systems.

Increased electrical power demands are being experienced on the new generation of aircraft due to an increased reliance on electrical technology of systems such as air conditioning, de-icing systems and electrical flight control actuation. Distribution of power at higher AC and DC voltages is therefore now being seen in modern aircraft to avoid the penalties incurred due to high cable weights. Voltages have increased past the minimum of Paschen's law resulting in a risk that life limiting partial discharge (PD) damage can occur in the insulation systems. This thesis uses a theoretical analysis backed by PD experimental results to investigate the optimal operating voltage of a cabling system. In addition, it proposes a methodology for optimizing the operating voltage level based on an analysis of the power carrying capability of cabling within a fixed and a non-fixed volume system and the derivation of the cable weight as a function of voltage. Furthermore the power carrying capability of a certain round cable system is compared with an insulated flat conductor system as in a printed circuit board (PCB). An initial assessment has been carried out to determine whether more power can be delivered via insulated flat solid conductors as in a PCB, instead of using round cables. The reason why there is a need to investigate this aspect, is because using new PCB technology can offer several advantages over traditional cabling harnesses. The work done has shown that the optimal operating point (e.g. maximum power to weight ratio) for an aircraft power system, does not improve after certain voltage levels. A tradeoff between cable weight and power transfer is required and furthermore the use of DC systems can result in higher power transfers than conventional three phase/400Hz AC systems. The PCB maximum power transfer assessment has also shown that insulated flat conductor systems can offer higher power transfer efficiencies. In addition, experimental AC and DC PD tests on certain unscreened aerospace cables (laid out in different configurations), have shown that the theoretical analysis employed to determine cable safe operating voltages gives conservative results.

The continuous depletion of fossil fuel reserves, the global agenda on climate change and threats to energy security have led to increased global interest in the exploration, production and utilisation of bioenergy and biofuels. Access to modern bioenergy carriers derived from the efficient conversion of locally available biomass resources is indispensable for economic growth, rural development and sustainable development in developing countries. Deployment of bioenergy/biofuels technologies has significantly varied across the globe. The least developed countries (LDCs) and developing countries are still highly dependent on traditional biomass technologies with low conversion efficiency, which are typically associated with significant environmental and health impacts. Meanwhile, emerging economies and developed countries are progressively promoting biofuel industries and international trade. They are also engaged in making biofuels a sustainable proposition by developing sustainability criteria. The goal of this thesis is to address the sustainability of bioethanol production derived from one of the key feedstocks/energy crops: sugarcane. This will be done by analysing different development contexts and environmental constraints in terms of geopolitical situation, economic development and state-of-the-art technologies in agro-industrial development. Life cycle assessment (LCA), system studies, and techno-economic optimisation are the main methodological approaches applied in the thesis. The thesis primarily addresses three key questions for analysing the sustainability of bioethanol production. The first research question investigates the key parameters affecting the sustainability of bioethanol production and use in a low-income country using the case of Nepal. The net energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances are identified to be the main sustainability criteria of the sugarcane-molasses bioethanol (Paper I and II). Results of the lifecycle studies show that the production of bioethanol is energy-efficient in terms of the fossil fuel inputs required to produce the renewable fuel. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production and combustion of ethanol are also lower than those from gasoline. The study also evaluates the socio-economic and environmental benefits of ethanol production and use in Nepal, concluding that the major sustainability indicators are in line with the goals of sustainable development (Paper III). Assessment of the biofuel (molasses-bioethanol) sustainability in Nepal is the first of its kind in low-income countries, and serves also the purpose of motivating the assessment of ethanol production potential in other LDCs, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The second question critically evaluates methodologies for accounting the lifecycle GHG emissions of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol in European and American regulations, depicting commonalities and differences among them (Paper IV). GHG emissions are becoming increasingly important as part of sustainability criteria in the context of the expansion of biofuel production and international trade. However, different methodologies still lead to quite different results and interpretation. To make this an operational criterion for international comparisons, it is necessary to establish unified methodological procedures for accounting GHG emissions. The thesis identifies the major issues as  N2O emissions from agricultural practices, bioelectricity credits in fuel production, and modelling approaches in estimating emissions related to direct and indirect land use change (LUC &amp; iLUC), that need to be addressed for establishing methodological coherences. The third research question investigates how the sugarcane bioethanol industry can be developed in terms of energy security and the diversification of energy sources. The case of complementarity between bioelectricity and hydropower is evaluated in the cases of Nepal and Brazil and presented in Paper V. Bioelectricity could offer a significant share of electricity supply in both countries provided that favourable political and institutional conditions are applied. Finally, in order to find the choice of technological options for the production of second generation (2G) bioethanol and/or of bioelectricity, a techno-economic optimisation study on the bulk of sugarcane bio-refineries in Brazil is carried out in Paper VI, taking into account the entire lifecycle costs, emissions, and international trade. The study shows that it is worthwhile to upgrade sugarcane bio-refineries. Energy prices, type of power generation systems, biofuel support and carbon tax, and conversion efficiencies are the major factors influencing the technological choice and potential bioethanol trade. In short, this dissertation provides insights on the sustainability of the bioethanol production/industry and its potential role in the mitigation of climate change, improved energy security and sustainable development in different country contexts, as well as methodological contributions for assessing the sustainability of biofuels production in connection with energy and climate policies. / Intresset för ökad exploatering, produktion och användning av bioenergi och biobränslen har föranletts av den kontinuerliga utmattningen av fossila bränslen, den globala agendan för att motverka klimatförändringar samt hoten mot energisäkerheten. Tillgången till moderna bioenergibärare, effektivt framställda från lokal råvara, är grundläggande för ekonomisk tillväxt, landsbygdsutveckling samt för hållbar utveckling i utvecklingsländer. Användandet av bioenergi- och biobränsleteknologi har varierat markant världen över. De minst utvecklade länderna (LDCs) samt övriga utvecklingsländer är fortfarande beroende av traditionella biomassabaserade tekniker till stor utsträckning. Dessa tekniker har låg effektivitet och är ofta sammankopplade med stora miljö- och hälsoskador. Samtidigt främjar tillväxtekonomier och utvecklingsländer biobränsleindustrin och internationell handel progressivt. Länderna arbetar även för att biobränslen ska bli ett hållbart alternativ genom att utveckla hållbarhetskriterier. Den här avhandlingens mål är att adressera hållbarheten hos bioetanolproduktion från sockerrör, en av bioetanolens nyckelråvaror. Målet kommer att nås genom analyser av industrins nationella utvecklingsmiljö samt miljö- och klimatmässiga begränsningar som härstammar från den geopolitiska situationen och den ekonomiska tillväxten i landet, samt analyser av teknologier i den agro-industriella utvecklingen. De huvudsakliga metoder som använts är livscykelanalys (LCA), systemstudier och tekno-ekonomisk optimering. Avhandlingen adresserar primärt tre nyckelfrågor för att analysera hållbarheten hos bioetanolproduktion. Den första forskningsfrågan belyser hur nyckelparametrar påverkar hållbarheten hos produktion och användning av bioetanol i låginkomstländer, med fallstudien Nepal som utgångspunkt. Nettoenergi- och växthusgasbalanser identifieras som de huvudsakliga hållbarhetskriterierna för sockerrör-melass-baserad bioetanol (Artikel I och II). Livscykelstudiernas resultat visar att produktionen av bioetanol är energieffektiv sett från den mängd fossila bränslen som produktionen av förnybart bränsle krävt. Växthusgasutsläppen från produktion och förbränning av etanol är dessutom lägre än utsläppen från bensin. Studien utvärderar de socio-ekonomiska och miljö- och klimatmässiga fördelarna med produktion och användning av etanol i Nepal. Slutsatsen är att indikatorerna för hållbarhet ligger i linje med målen för hållbar utveckling (Artikel III). Bedömningen av biobränslens (melass-baserad etanol) hållbarhet i Nepal är den första studien i sitt slag för låginkomstländer. Studien motiverar dessutom en bedömning av potentialen för etanolproduktion i andra LDCs, speciellt i de afrikanska länderna söder om Sahara. Den andra forskningsfrågan kräver en kritisk utvärdering av metoderna för hur livscykelutsläpp från brasiliansk sockerrörsetanol redovisas i europeiska och amerikanska regleringar (Artikel IV). Artikeln, som påvisar likheter och skillnader mellan regionerna, visar att växthusgasutsläpp blir en mer och mer viktig del i hur hållbarhetskriterier definieras när expansionen av biobränsleproduktion och internationell handel diskuteras. Olika metoder för redovisningen av växthusgasutsläpp leder dock till mycket olika resultat och tolkningar. Det är nödvändigt att etablera en enhetlig metod för redovisning av växthusgasutsläpp för att skapa ett kriterium som möjliggör internationella jämförelser. Avhandlingen identifierar de mest beaktansvärda problemen för att etablera en enhetlig metod: N2O-utsläpp från jordbruksprocesser, tillgodoräknande av bioelektricitet inom bränsleproduktion, samt modelleringsmetoder för att uppskatta utsläpp relaterade till direkt och indirekt landanvändning (LUC och iLUC). Den tredje forskningsfrågan utreder hur industrin för sockerrörsbioetanol kan utvecklas från ett energisäkerhetsperspektiv, med speciell hänsyn till diversifieringen av energikällor. I Artikel V presenteras hur bioelektricitetsproduktion och vattenkraft kan komplettera varandra i fallen Nepal och Brasilien. Bioelektricitet skulle kunna bidra markant till tillförseln av elektricitet i båda länderna under förutsättning att de politiska och institutionella förutsättningarna är fördelaktiga. Slutligen utförs en tekno-ekonomisk studie för att identifiera den optimala teknologin för produktion av andra generationens (2G) bioetanol och/eller bioelektricitet. Studien görs för merparten av sockerrörsbioraffinaderierna i Brasilien och utgör Artikel VI. Studien tar fullskaliga livscykelkostnader i beaktande samt utsläpp och internationell handel. Studien visar att det är värt mödan att uppgradera befintliga sockerrörsbioraffinaderier. De dominerande påverkansfaktorerna för valet av teknologi och potentialen för bioetanolhandel är energipriser, typ av kraftproduktionssystem, biobränslestöd och koldioxidskatt, samt processernas effektivitet. Kortfattat behandlar den här avhandlingen bioetanolproduktionens och bioetanolindustrins hållbarhet. Avhandlingen ger insikt i dess potentiella roll för att motverka klimatförändringar, förbättra energisäkerhet samt främja hållbar utveckling i olika nationella sammanhang. Avhandlingen bidrar dessutom med metodutveckling i hur hållbarheten av biobränsleproduktion bedöms inom ramen för energi- och klimatpolicy. / <p>QC 20130813</p>

Whether it is based on current emissions data or future projections of further growth, the building sector currently represent the largest and singular most important contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. This notion is also supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on projection scenarios for 2030 that emissions from buildings will be responsible for about one-third of total global emissions. As such, improving the energy efficiency of buildings has become a top priority worldwide. A significant majority of buildings that exist now will still exist in 2030 and beyond; therefore the greatest energy savings and carbon footprint reductions can be made through retrofit of existing buildings. A wide range of retrofit options are readily available, but methods to identify optimal solutions for a particular abatement project still constitute a major technical challenge. Investments in building energy retrofit technologies usually involve decision-making processes targeted at reducing operational energy consumption and maintenance bills. For this reason, retrofit decisions by building stakeholders are typically driven by financial considerations. However, recent trends towards environmentally conscious and resource-efficient design and retrofit have focused on the environmental merits of these options, emphasising a lifecycle approach to emissions reduction. Retrofit options available for energy savings have different performance characteristics and building stakeholders are required to establish an optimal solution, where competing objectives such as financial costs, energy consumption and environmental performance are taken into account. These key performance parameters cannot be easily quantified and compared by building stakeholders since they lack the resources to perform an effective decision analysis. In part, this is due to the inadequacy of existing methods to assess and compare performance indicators. Current methods to quantify these parameters are considered in isolation when making decisions about energy conservation in buildings. To effectively manage the reduction of lifecycle environmental impacts, it is necessary to link financial cost with both operational and embodied emissions. This thesis presents a novel deterministic decision support system (DSS) for the evaluation of economically and environmentally optimal retrofit of non-domestic buildings. The DSS integrates the key variables of economic and net environmental benefits to produce optimal decisions. These variables are used within an optimisation scheme that consists of integrated modules for data input, sensitivity analysis and takes into account the use of a set of retrofit options that satisfies a range of criteria (environmental, demand, cost and resource constraints); hierarchical course of action; and the evaluations of ‘best’ case scenario based on marginal abatement cost methods and Pareto optimisation. The steps involved in the system development are presented and its usefulness is evaluated using case study applications. The results of the applications are analysed and presented, verifying the feasibility of the DSS, whilst encouraging further improvements and extensions. The usefulness of the DSS as a tool for policy formulation and developments that can trigger innovations in retrofit product development processes and sustainable business models are also discussed. The methodology developed provides stakeholders with an efficient and reliable decision process that is informed by both environmental and financial considerations. Overall, the development of the DSS which takes a whole-life CO2 emission accounting framework and an economic assessment view-point, successfully demonstrates how value is delivered across different parts of the techno-economic system, especially as it pertains to financial gains, embodied and operational emissions reduction potential.

The demand for automated decision making, learning and inference in uncertain, risk sensitive and dynamically changing situations presents a challenge: to design computational approaches that promise to be widely deployable and flexible to adapt on the one hand, while offering reliable guarantees on safety on the other. The tension between these desiderata has created a gap that, in spite of intensive research and contributions made from a wide range of communities, remains to be filled. This represents an intriguing challenge that provided motivation for much of the work presented in this thesis. With these desiderata in mind, this thesis makes a number of contributions towards the development of algorithms for automated decision-making and inference under uncertainty. To facilitate inference over unobserved effects of actions, we develop machine learning approaches that are suitable for the construction of models over dynamical laws that provide uncertainty bounds around their predictions. As an example application for conservative decision-making, we apply our learning and inference methods to control in uncertain dynamical systems. Owing to the uncertainty bounds, we can derive performance guarantees of the resulting learning-based controllers. Furthermore, our simulations demonstrate that the resulting decision-making algorithms are effective in learning and controlling under uncertain dynamics and can outperform alternative methods. Another set of contributions is made in multi-agent decision-making which we cast in the general framework of optimisation with interaction constraints. The constraints necessitate coordination, for which we develop several methods. As a particularly challenging application domain, our exposition focusses on collision avoidance. Here we consider coordination both in discrete-time and continuous-time dynamical systems. In the continuous-time case, inference is required to ensure that decisions are made that avoid collisions with adjustably high certainty even when computation is inevitably finite. In both discrete-time and finite-time settings, we introduce conservative decision-making. That is, even with finite computation, a coordination outcome is guaranteed to satisfy collision-avoidance constraints with adjustably high confidence relative to the current uncertain model. Our methods are illustrated in simulations in the context of collision avoidance in graphs, multi-commodity flow problems, distributed stochastic model-predictive control, as well as in collision-prediction and avoidance in stochastic differential systems. Finally, we provide an example of how to combine some of our different methods into a multi-agent predictive controller that coordinates learning agents with uncertain beliefs over their dynamics. Utilising the guarantees established for our learning algorithms, the resulting mechanism can provide collision avoidance guarantees relative to the a posteriori epistemic beliefs over the agents' dynamics.