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泰勒法則 (Taylor rule) 認為央行關心的主要是產出成長與物價的穩定，利用利率工具促使產出成長與物價回到長期穩定水準。此法則由於操作簡單，容易為大眾了解，因此不但有助於人民對央行政策的監督，增加央行的責任感，也為民間提供一個預測未來經濟的工具，降低金融波動。雖然台灣每年仍會公佈貨幣數量 M2 的目標區，似採以盯住貨幣數量為主的貨幣政策，但近年來由於金融創新與自由化，貨幣替代品日增，貨幣的定義也日漸模糊，貨幣和產出及物價目標的相關性降低，我們因此有興趣檢測台灣央行的利率操作是否遵循泰勒法則。由於台灣是個小型開放體系，匯率對經濟狀況有很大的影響力，本文將匯率的變動引入泰勒法則， 和原本的產出成長和物價一同作為央行所關心的政策目標。匯率固有其重要性，但相較於產出成長和物價，對景氣的影響是間接的，所以本文認，央行對匯率的關心主要在其變動方向，而非變動幅度。在這種想法下，匯率在泰勒法則中將只是一個顯示其升降的指標變數。 本文在動態計量模型的設定上，考慮到內生變數間的同期因果關係，以及它們當中存在二元變數，故採用 Duker (2005) 裡所擬議的 Qual VAR (qualitative variable) 模型，使用 Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) 進行估計。對於估計結果的分析，則大致如同標準的VAR模型， 除了比較模型估計的顯著性與係數大小外，主要是要進行衝擊反應 (impulse-response) 分析，檢驗在各個政策目標的隨機衝擊下，對央行所操控的利率會有什麼樣的影響。

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The purpose of this paper has been to investigate the monetary policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), in terms of a Taylor rule based approach to their use of their interest rate. The evaluation of the different rules was based on both in-sample and out-of-sample forecast errors. Few significant or consistent influences from the variables proposed by the rules can be established, which might suggest that the bank operates primarily under a discretionary framework rather than a rule. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the European Central Bank interest rate (ECB-rate) does not exclusively drive the Central Bank of West African States interest rate (BCEAO-rate), which suggests that they indeed do retain some independence of monetary policy to respond to domestic variables as proposed by earlier research, despite having a fixed exchange rate. These results put into question the credibility of the BCEAO in attaining their stated primary goal of price stability, as there seems to be no significant or consistent response to it in the setting of their interest rate, despite a suggested ability to react to it. This can be the cause of the current high volatility of inflation in the area and give rise to future volatility and instability as well.

<p>This thesis is trying to find out whether the five studied countries, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain would have avoided the economic crisis by having an independent central bank.The theory used for our study is the Taylor rule, using statistical data in order to count out the short-term nominal interest rate. Results are compared with the ECB nominal interest rate to see if the difference between the two rates is big. By looking at other macroeconomic data we will try to understand if the fiscal policy could have been conducted in a better way.The results we reached were varying. In the case of Ireland and Spain we could clearly see that a higher interest rate could have drastically altered the outcome, potentially avoiding the crisis. Regarding Italy and Portugal, the current crisis is more due to structural problems and not due to the level of the interest rate. Finally, we could see that Greece could have benefited from a higher interest rate. But we cannot definitely say that this has been the reason for the crisis since the Greek fiscal policy has been poorly conducted.</p>

This thesis is trying to find out whether the five studied countries, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain would have avoided the economic crisis by having an independent central bank.The theory used for our study is the Taylor rule, using statistical data in order to count out the short-term nominal interest rate. Results are compared with the ECB nominal interest rate to see if the difference between the two rates is big. By looking at other macroeconomic data we will try to understand if the fiscal policy could have been conducted in a better way.The results we reached were varying. In the case of Ireland and Spain we could clearly see that a higher interest rate could have drastically altered the outcome, potentially avoiding the crisis. Regarding Italy and Portugal, the current crisis is more due to structural problems and not due to the level of the interest rate. Finally, we could see that Greece could have benefited from a higher interest rate. But we cannot definitely say that this has been the reason for the crisis since the Greek fiscal policy has been poorly conducted.

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This paper aims to use different Taylor rules in analyzing the interest rate for the Euro Area. The Euro Area was chosen because it consists of all the countries that use the Euro. The European Central Bank also behaves with the national banks in much the same as manner as the US Federal Reserve Bank system. The Taylor rule is used because the main objective of the Euro Area is price stability. Two different Taylor rules are used in this paper: simple Taylor rule, and dynamic Taylor rule. Each Taylor rule is also broken down to include the individual country coefficients. This allows for the effect each country has on the Euro Area's monetary policy to be determined.

The introduction of inflation-targeting frameworks around the world prompts the question whether Central Banks focus solely on inflation. The paper uses the Taylor rule to characterize the Namibian Monetary Policy and to see whether the Bank of Namibia considers the economy in setting the Bank rate. Based on this rule, the Bank rate follows the Taylor rule over the sample period but there are several deviations. My results point to the following: Firstly, the Bank increases the policy rate to counter rising inflation but keeps the rate constant when inflation declines. Secondly, the Bank tends to smooth their rate adjustments. Using the lags of right hand side variables, hints at the fact that past inflation is important for the Bank to adjust the policy rate. Thirdly, the Bank of Namibia seems to focus more on inflation compared to the output gap. This is confirmed by the weight allocation which seems to be larger for inflation. Finally, the inclusion of additional variables that are deemed important in setting the Bank rate, improves the overall fit. Therefore, the model could be utilized to indicate where the policy rate should be.

In this thesis I examine the Riksbank’s monetary policy for five periods from 1995-2023 to see if the Riksbank follows the Taylor rule. I do so by conducting a diagram of the actual policy rate and the suggested policy rate from the Taylor rule. I also conduct reaction functions using the inflation gap and the output gap and the dynamic Taylor rule’s reaction function. The results gives that the reaction function based on Taylors original rule gave positive and overall statistically significant outcomes for the first periods, while the last two periods had negative and statistically insignificant outcome. The dynamic Taylor rule gave no significant results and evidence for interest smoothing cannot really be concluded. The graphical interpretation shows a similar result as the reaction function. The conclusion is that the Riksbank can be said to have followed the Taylor rule for the first two periods (1995-2005 and 2005-2010), but not for the last three periods (2010-2015, 2015-2020 and 2020-2023).