¡@¡@With high liquidity and operating flexibility, futures can not be held for long term and must be restricted by margin requirement. This makes many futures traders prefer day trading to avoid the risk of the price gap of the next trading day. ¡@¡@Day traders tend to operate a trend-following strategy based on technical analysis and actively manage their holding positions. They take stop-loss strategy in the wrong direction to limit the damage, while take raise-stake strategy in the right direction to increase profits. A program trading system can even be utilized to carry out the strategy immediately and mechanically. ¡@¡@This study use Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index Futures as our sample. It simulates the performance of trend-following strategy of day traders by using moving average as basic signals, combined with the trading volume and Bollinger Band. ¡@¡@We found that, in medium-term and long-term time frame (30-60 minutes), active management of stop-loss and overweight strategy can still change the distribution of performance and earn positive returns, even if moving average technical analysis is not as effective as expected.

In recent years technical analysis has been used more and more frequently. The original concept of technical analysis is built on history will be continue to repeat itself. Therefore, analysts and investors could predict the market price by observing the historical data. The idea of pattern recognition technology comes from face recognition systems. In the system, the analyst captures the facial features from the entrant and then quantifies the features as codes. Through the process of recognition, the analyst can confirm the identity of the entrant. Pattern recognition applies the idea to extract information encoded in the stock market characteristics and recognize the market with historical data. In the application, pattern recognition can be regarded as a pre-operation of the technical analysis. Users analyze the current information through pattern recognition and can further build the strategy. This model has 19 codes captured from two dimensions; the first is price, and the second is the trend of ups and downs. The empirical results for the decade in the weekly frequency trading strategy are an annual return of 31.57% and annual risk of 26.66%. After the deduction of trading fees, the strategy has an annual return of 14.94% and annual risk of 26.72%.

Stock Market is always being the most important role in modern capital market. And Stock Market is becoming one the most popular investment tools these days. Because of the Globalization of capital markets, the spreading of capital becomes faster and easier. The development of capital markets evoke the interesting of scholars and the field of stock market prediction attract scholars and researchers from different background. There are two approaches of predicting stock market - fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The purpose of my work was to predict three stock markets in the world, namely Taiwan Weighted Index (IDXWT), Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) using technical analysis and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN).This thesis is based on Wang¡¦s thesis [Wan05] ¡§Investment Decision Support with Dynamic Bayesian Networks¡¨. According to different characteristic of 3 stock markets, we divide 3 different markets into 3 experiments. For each market, we expect we can find the best indicators and trading signals. The first experiment involves Taiwan Weighted Index as our prediction target; the second one uses Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and the third experiment employs Dow Jones Industrial Average. As a result, Taiwan Stock market (both 15-day and 20-day Moving Average)can make higher returns than buy-and-hold, RSI_6 and KD. And we also have the same conclusion of Hang Seng Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The best return from 15-day MA and 20-day MA of Taiwan Stock market is 47.95% and 60.21%, respectively. Moreover, the best result of Hang Seng Index is 60.06% for 4 years and 25.83% for Dow Jones Industrial Average. All of the best results can make higher returns than each of their buy-and-hold, RSI_6 and KD. In the conclusion, we may say that this paper can provide a direction to investors while they are using these technical indicators to predict these particular stock markets.

Lyginant su praėjusiais šimtmečiais, dvidešimtasis amžius buvo kupinas kraštutinumų. Ankstyvoji to dalis buvo sklandžiai besitęsianti XIX amžiaus taika. Bet šią tylą prieš audrą sekė I-asis Pasaulinis karas, komunizmas, nevaldoma infliacija, fašizmas, nuosmukis, II-asis Pasaulinis karas, ir sovietinė Rytų Europos okupacija. Po jų ėjo santykinio stabilumo laikotarpis, kuriame kartu egzistavo Šaltojo karo baimė, NATO aljansas ir dekolonializmas. Baigiantis amžiui, baigėsi ir Šaltasis karas, buvo sugriauta sovietų imperija, Rytų Europoje atsirado demokratija, suklestėjo Amerikos kultūriniai ir buitiniai dalykai ir atsirado euras. Dvidešimtasis amžius prasidėjo labai efektyvia tarptautine valiutine sistema, kuri buvo sunaikinta I-ojo Pasaulinio karo metu, o jos nemokšiškas atkūrimas tarpukario laikotarpiu atnešė didelį nuosmukį, Hitlerį ir II-ąjį Pasaulinį karą. Nauji veiksmai, kurie ėjo po to, labiau priklausė nuo JAV Federalinės rezervų sistemos dolerio politikos, negu nuo paties aukso metodų.. 1971m. nustojus galioti Bretton-Woods'o valiutų kursų reguliavimo sistemai, bei perėjus prie “plaukiojančiu kursų” Tarpbankinė valiutų rinka tampa pačia dinamiškiausia ir likvidžiausia pasaulio rinka - vienintele rinka dirbančia ištisa parą. Greita investuotų lėšų apyvarta, žema sandoriu savikaina bei aukštas likvidumo lygis išskiria tarpbankinė valiutų rinka iš kitų, tradicinių finansų rinkų. Valiutų rinka skirstoma i biržines ir nebiržines prekybos rinkas. Nebiržinė rinka faktiškai yra... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / By comparing with last centuries, the twentieth century has produced extremes. Its earliest part was a benign continuation of the peace of the nineteenth century. But this calm before the storm was followed by the World War I, communism, hyperinflation, fascism, depression, the World War II, and the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe. There followed a period of comparative stability, punctuated by the balance of terror of the Cold War, the Nato Alliance, and decolonialism. Toward the end of the century the Cold War ended, the Soviet Empire was dismantled, democracy emerged in Eastern Europe, the Americana flourished and the euro came. The twentieth century began with a highly efficient international monetary system that was destroyed in World War I, and its bungled recreation in the inter-war period brought on the great depression, Hitler and the World War II. The new arrangements that succeeded it depended more on the dollar policies of the Federal Reserve System than on the discipline of gold itself. In the new arrangements, which were ratified at Bretton Woods in 1944, countries were required to establish parities fixed in gold and maintain fixed exchange rates to one another. With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, money supplies became more elastic, accommodating not only inflationary wage developments but also the monopolistic pricing of internationally traded commodities. Foreign Exchange trading describes trading in the many currencies of the world. It is the... [to full text]

Techninė analizė yra vienas iš akcijų kainų prognozavimo būdų, kuris naudoja techninę informaciją apie kainų pasikeitimus. Techninė analizė yra vienas iš daugumos patikimų metodų, garantuojančių sėkmingą prekybą vertybinių popierių biržoje. Tačiau techninės analizės naudojimas yra ne visada galimas dėl informacijos trūkumo. Šiame darbe yra išanalizuotos galimybės panaudoti techninę analizę OMX rinkoje. Baigiamojo darbo objektas – techninė analizė, skirta investicinio portfelio pelningumui nustatyti. Baigiamojo darbo tikslas – naudojant techninės analizės tyrimo metodus, pateikti sprendimus suformavimui investicinio portfelio, maksimizuojančio investicijų pelningumą OMX vertybinių popierių biržoje. Darbo tikslui pasiekti yra keliami šie uždaviniai: 1. Išnagrinėti OMX biržos veiklą ir jos specifiką skirtingose valstybėse. 2. Išanalizuoti teorinius vertybinių popierių pelningumo techninės analizės aspektus ir labiausiai paplitusius modelius. 3. Išnagrinėti OMX vertybinių popierių biržą įvairiais techninės analizės metodais ir nustatyti optimalų techninės analizės metodų rinkinį, skirtą maksimalaus pelningumo vertybinių popierių portfelio formavimui. Akcijos portfelio sudarymo rezultatai, naudojant techninę analizę leidžia teigti, kad techninė analizė gali būti panaudota kaip įrankis akcijų kurso dinamikos analizei OMX vertybinių popierių biržoje. Tai galioja tuo atveju, jei akcijų kurso dinamika yra analizuota, naudodama kelis techninius analizės metodus, ir tų metodų tinkamumas... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Technical analysis is one of stocks’ prices forecasting ways that uses technical information about the changes of prices. Technical analysis is discussed as one of most reliable methods to guarantee successful trade in stock market. But the usage of technical analysis is not always possible because of lack of information or stock market specifics. In this study the possibilities to use technical analysis in OMX Nordic market is analyzed. The object of study is technical analysis used to assess the profitability of investment portfolio. The objective of study is to present decisions for profit-maximising investment portfolio formation in OMC stock market, using technical analysis’ methods. The tasks of the study are as follows: 1. To analyse OMX market performance and specifics in different countries. 2. To analyse the theoretical aspects of stock profitability assessment using technical analysis and most often used models. 3. To analyse OMXTechnical analysis using various models of technical analysis and to determine the optimal methods of technical analysis that could be used for profit-maximising stock portfolio formation. The results of stock portfolio formation using technical analysis allows stating that technical analysis can be used as the tool for stock price dynamics analysis in OMX stock market. This is valid in case the dynamics of stock price is analyzed using several technical analysis methods and the suitability of those methods in concrete situation is assessed... [to full text]

The first chapter contains cocenpts of commodity exchanges and aspects of futures trading and speculation. In the second chapter is quite detailed description of methods of technical analysis, which are divided into patterns and indicators. The important factors of developing a trading system are mentioned in the third chapter. These consists of terms, such as money-management, position sizing, stop-loss or necessity of keeping detailed trading diary. In the very last section of my work I am analysing my own trading using historical data. I am precisely indicating the chosen market, system of trading and its rules, used software and of course the results, that has been achieved.

The thesis "Testing of selected methods of fundamental and technical analysis" focuses on fundamental a technical analysis on stock market. The paper describes the most used analysis on the stock market. In practical part of the thesis I applied methods of fundamental and technical analysis to the stock of ČEZ.

The purpose of this diploma thesis is a testing of utilization of the indicators for technical analysis on selected equities from SPAD. The main aim of this thesis is to answer whether the trading based on the indicators of technical analysis could be profitable particularly for an ordinary investor in the time of the financial crises. For this purpose there were used equity rates for ČEZ, Komerční banka, Philip Morris ČR and Telefónica O2C.R.. Analyzed period is divided into two parts. Parameters of the indicators are tested in the first period from 2002 to 2006 and the calculated optimized parameters are used in the second period from 2002 to March of 2009.

The goal of my thesis is to describe futures commodity contract e-mini Russell 2000 and the application of automatic trading system on this contract. Developed trading strategy is tested with technical analysis indicators using Money management for optimization. The conclusion of the thesis answers the question if modeled trading system is profitable and practically used for real trading.

This master thesis is focused on technical analysis, which is used for forecasting the future trends of stocks. In the first part of master’s thesis are described theoretical basis, which are a base of practical part of this thesis. Next part of this thesis describes the design of application designed to support the technical analysis. Main part of this master thesis deals with building own trading rules and trading strategy.