Estimation of stochastic volatility (SV) models is a formidable task because the presence of the latent variable makes the likelihood function difficult to construct. The model can be transformed to a linear state space with non-Gaussian disturbances. Durbin and Koopman (1997) have shown that the likelihood function of the general non-Gaussian state space model can be approximated arbitrarily accurately by decomposing it into a Gaussian part (constructed by the Kalman filter) and a remainder function (whose expectation is evaluated by simulation). This general methodology is specialised to the estimation of SV models. A finite sample simulation experiment illustrates that the resulting Monte Carlo likelihood estimator achieves full efficiency with minimal computational effort. Accurate values of the likelihood function allow inference within the model to be performed by means of likelihood ratio tests. This enables tests for the presence of a unit root in the volatility process to be constructed which are shown to be more powerful than the conventional unit root tests. The second part of the thesis consists of two empirical applications of the SV model. First, the informational content of implied volatility is examined. It is shown that the in- sample evolution of DEM/USD exchange rate volatility can be accurately captured by implied volatility of options. However, better forecasts of ex post volatility can be constructed from the basic SV model. This suggests that options implied volatility may not be market's best forecast of the future asset volatility, as is often assumed. Second, the regulatory claim of a destabilising effect of futures market trading on stock market volatility is critically assessed. It is shown how volume-volatility relationships can be accurately modelled in the SV framework. The variables which approximate the activity in the FT100 index futures market are found to have no influence on the volatility of the underlying stock market index.

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This thesis provides a detailed empirical evaluation of the role and function of the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 index futures contracts, by considering the interrelated issues of hedging effectiveness and pricing efficiency. The aims of the thesis are outlined in chapter one, with chapter two providing a detailed review of the empirical literature relevant to this study. Chapter three investigates the hedging effectiveness of the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 index futures contracts in both an ex post and ex ante context. Despite relatively thin trading volume, the FTSE Mid 250 contract is shown to be an important hedging instrument. However, the results demonstrate the hedging effectiveness can only truly be examined by using an ex ante strategy in conjunction with spot portfolios that do not replicate market portfolios. Work into hedging effectiveness is further examined in chapter four using hedge ratios generated within the Extended Mean Gini framework. The results indicate that for both contracts the hedge ratio series are characterised by a step function which is strongly related to the hedger's degree of risk aversion. Chapter five examines the pricing efficiency of the FTSE 100 and Mid 250 contracts. While there were many deviations from fair value, both contracts appear to be quite efficiently priced, with opportunity for index arbitrage rare. Research into the economics of arbitrage is extended in chapter six by investigating the potential for intramarket and intermarket spread trading. While the intramarket spread is found to be very efficiently priced, trading well within its no-arbitrage limits, the intermarket is much less efficiently priced frequently violating its no-arbitrage limits. Chapter seven, provides a summary of the thesis and concluding remarks concerning the relevance of the issues investigated are drawn.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2004. / Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains x, 112 p.; also includes graphics. Includes bibliographical references (p. 73-77).

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Abstract Due to the arrival of global zoned economy, the fluent fund has promoted the intercommunication of international politics and economy. The multiple investments have become research focus in recent years, leading to the reasons of the relationship and fluctuation in various countries. Thus this research, taking Taiwan as a starting point, analyzes the relationship of stock price with one of our neighbor countries, South Korea, including their deep bid, four major type stocks ( plastics, transportation, steel, electronics), nine major personal shares( Taiwan Plastics and S.K. Chemical Industry, Evergreen Shipping and Han Jin Shipping Co., China Steel Co. and Posco, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics, AUO and Samsung Electronics). By use of E-view software, it analyzes their closing price from June 2001 till June 2005, expecting to improve the investment performances of the government, investors and relevant industries. The study shows that every stock price index has arrays of single root. Going on with Johansen Cointegration relationship with Granger Causality, it can get the following results: I) Only short term relation exists for deep bid, other three major type stocks and nine main industries¡¦ personal shares between S. Korea and Taiwan, except electronic stocks. II) No short term relation exists among deep bid, electronic type stock, Evergreen and Han Chin Shipping Co. personal shares. As for plastics, transportation, steel type stock, China and Posco, Taiwan Electronics and Samsung¡¦s personal shares, S. Korea is a leading indicator as it influences Taiwan¡¦s present situation. On the other hand, Taiwan influences S. Korea as a leading indicator for Taiwan Plastics and S.K. Chemical Industry. These mentioned above are mono-way cause and effect. Finally, research even shows that there¡¦s a mutual cause and effect relation between AUO and Samsung Electronics. III) Taking a general view of weigh value of equity market and short term relation, it can sum up to the following results : 1) The results are the same comparing the leading and backward relation of type stocks to large proportion personal shares. 2) The leading and backward relation of small proportion does not have the same influence as type stocks. 3) The type stocks, that originally do not have cause and effect relation, will appear mutual influence relation if the personal shares take large proportion in type stocks, due to high similarity of production among industries. Key Words: Taiwan stock market , South Korea stock market, Cointegration relationship.

This master's thesis investigates the connection between profit margin, return on assets, long-term debt, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and they relate to dividend. The study examines whether companies with increasing dividends and companies with decreasing and constant dividends have significantly different effects on the P/E ratio. The results show that profit margin has a positive and statistically significant impact on the P/E ratio in companies with increasing dividends, demonstrating the significance of profitability in affecting investor valuation. Long-term debt and return on assets, however, do not appear to be significantly correlated with the P/E ratio in this group. In contrast, none of the financial performance variables have a major impact on the P/E ratio in companies with decreasing and constant dividends. The research highlights that it is important to take dividend distribution into account as a differentiating element when examining the connection between financial performance and the P/E ratio. However, the study cannot accept or reject the null hypothesis entirely as the results lack statistical significance.

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