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The monetary transmission mechanism in Sri Lanka 1977-1985 : a macro simulation approach to the modelling of the money supply process and the construction of an analytical framework for monetary managementJayamaha, Ranee January 1989 (has links)
The primary objective of this thesis is to analyse the relationship between money and the macro-economy in Sri Lanka between 1977 and 1985, in order to identify the paths through which monetary policy impulses are transmitted over this period. In doing so, - we also hope to highlight the use of macro-simulation as a tool for the analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism and to emphasise the importance of formulating monetary policy within an explicit monetary control framework. This is especially important in Sri Lanka since monetary policy has been a key instrument of demand management since 1977 and historically there has been a noticeable absence of an explicit monetary control framework. Empirical research on the monetary transmission mechanism has been very limited as far as developing countries are concerned. An exception here is the SEACEN (1981) study which simulates the effects of monetary shocks on a number of South East Asian countries, including Sri Lanka, using a flexible monetarist approach. Our research is based upon a revision of the specification of this model for Sri Lanka and a more comprehensive disaggregation of the monetary transmission channels. Our empirical model produces statistical results which are generally acceptable and conform to a Priori expectations. This model is then simulated dynamically, both, to validate the equations in the context of a complete model and to quantify the impact of alternative policy scenarios relating to the monetary transmission mechanism in Sri Lanka. We believe that our results will help to shed light on the nature of the monetary transmission mechanism in developing countries as well as provide the basis for an on-going analysis of monetary management in Sri Lanka.
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Vad styr företagens investeringar?En studie om hur förändringar i reporänta, makroekonomiska faktorer samt finansiella indikatorer påverkar investeringar hos svenska företag / What determines investments of firms?A study on how changes in the repo rate, macroeconomics factors and financial indicators affect investments of Swedish firmsJansson, Emelie, Kapple, Linda January 2015 (has links)
Bakgrund: I november 2014 beslutade Riksbanken att ta steget mot en nollränta och i februari 2015 gick Riksbanken ut med ytterligare en sänkning till -0,10 procent. På så vis fick Sverige för första gången en negativ reporänta. Enligt makroekonomisk teori ska en sänkning av reporäntan stimulera konsumtion och investeringar i ekonomin. Huruvida reporäntan och dess räntesänkningar skapar förutsättningar för företag att investera är ett aktuellt och viktigt forskningsområde. Forskningen i ämnet är tunn på den svenska marknaden och således är forskningsbidraget från denna studie av betydelse.Syfte: Syftet med studien är att undersöka och analysera hur förändringar i reporänta, makro-ekonomiska faktorer samt finansiella indikatorer påverkar investeringar hos svenska företag.Genomförande: Studien bygger på en kvantitativ metod. En Vector Autoregressive model har skapats för att redogöra hur reporäntan, de makroekonomiska faktorerna och de finansiella indikatorerna påverkar företagens investeringar. För att möjliggöra en analys av dessa effekter har impulse response functions skattats i modellen. På så vis undersöks det hur en isolerad enhetsökning i de valda variablerna påverkar företagens investeringar över flera tidsperioder. För att genomföra en mer omfattande analys skattas tre modeller där den första tar hänsyn till både makroekonomiska faktorer och finansiella indikatorer. Den andra modellen exkluderar de finansiella indikatorerna och den tredje modellen speglar reporäntans utveckling i två olika tidsperioder.Resultat: Företagens investeringar påverkas av flertalet faktorer. En enhetsökning av utlåningsräntan, växelkursen och företagens inflationsförväntningar uppvisar ett signifikant negativt samband. En enhetsökning av BNP-tillväxten visar däremot ett signifikant positivt samband. Reporäntan visar ingen direkt effekt på investeringar i de första två modellerna. Däremot uppvisar reporäntan skillnader i den tredje modellen, där ett negativt samband förekommer i den första av de två observerade tidsperioderna. / Background: The central bank of Sweden decided in November 2014 to set the repo rate close to zero. Further they decided to lower the repo rate to -0,10 percent in February 2015. In regard to this, Sweden had a negative repo rate for the first time. According to macroeconomic theory a decrease in the repo rate is performed to stimulate an economy’s investments and consumptions. Whether or not a decrease in interest rates gives greater incentives for firms to invest is a topical subject and an important field of research. In addition to this, the existing research on the Swedish market is insufficient within this field, which gives us further motives to conduct this study.Aim: The purpose of this study is to examine and analyse how changes in the repo rate, macroeconomic factors and financial indicators affects investments of Swedish firms.Completion: The study is conducted with a quantitative approach. A Vector Autoregressive model is created in order to examine the impact of changes in the repo rate, the macroeconomic factors and the financial indicators on firms’ investments. Impulse response functions are estimated to allow a further analysis of these effects. Hence, it is conceivable to examine how one isolated unit-increase in a specific variable affects firms’ investment through several time periods. Furthermore, we estimate three models, one which includes both macroeconomic variables and financial indicators and another which excludes the financial indicators. The last model reflects the repo rate’s impact on investments in two separate time periods.Result: Investments of firms are affected by numerous of factors. One unit-increase of the lending rate, the exchange rate and firms’ expectations of inflation exhibit a negative relation to investments. Furthermore, one unit-increase in GDP-growth tends to increase investments. However, the repo rate has no impact on investments in the first two models. In spite of this, evidence from the third model indicates that the repo rate has a negative impact on investments during the first period.
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The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in BotswanaKganetsano, Tshokologo A. January 2007 (has links)
Macroeconomic stability is one of the most important national objectives in any country. However, economies are often subjected to a number of shocks (internal and external), which can be destabilising, produce volatility and make it difficult to achieve and maintain economic stability. Consequently, various policies are used to help deal with the various shocks that may affect the economy. Of all the available policies, monetary policy appears to have been ever more at the centre of macroeconomic policymaking. Meanwhile, for monetary policy to be effective, there is a need for a better understanding of the transmission mechanism, i.e., the process through which monetary policy decisions are transmitted into changes in real output and inflation. Whereas extensive research on the transmission mechanism has been conducted in developed countries, such work in developing countries, especially in Africa is lacking. This could be due to the fact that it was not long time ago, around the 1990s that countries in Africa started adopting the more modem central bank operations in a market-based economic and financial system characterised by indirect monetary policy. Such operations require an understanding of the transmission mechanism. Lack of empirical analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism in Botswana and developing countries of Africa in general, is the main motivating factor behind this thesis. The main objective of this thesis is, therefore, to estimate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Botswana. Three different, but complementary techniques (the Narrative Approach, Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and the Structural Approach involving the estimation of a small structural model for Botswana economy) are used. Results from these methods tell a consistent story and indicate that monetary policy in Botswana affects real output and inflation through the interest rate channel, while the exchange rate channel is not operational. The credit channel is also active but not strong. The structural approach also indicates that devaluation is contractionary in Botswana, but more research is necessary before firmer conclusions could be made.
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Transmisní mechanismus měnové politiky Federálního rezervního systému / Transmission mechanism of Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve SystemPetříková, Eva January 2008 (has links)
This thesis analyses the chief relations inside the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve System during the period from 1955 to 2007. The theoretical part of the thesis describes the principles of the history of Federal Reserve and his monetary policy, the development of Fed's monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, the lags in the monetary policy and various theories which deal with try to explain the monetary policy relations. In the analytical part I focus on answering the most laid questions whether, how much and for how long do the nominal interest rates and monetary aggregates affect the real variables (mainly the real domestic product) of the United States. Next I focus on investigating the monetarist assumption of money neutrality in the long run. I also introduce Granger causality and Impulse and Responses investigations into proposed VAR model.
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Aktuální problémy měnové politiky ve světě / Current problems of the monetary policy in the worldHouštecký, Martin January 2011 (has links)
This master thesis deals with current monetary policy in the world. The monetary policy belongs to the basic components of the economy and the economic policy. In today`s world economy, still recovering from the recent financial and economic crisis, many people look up to the monetary policy as a possible remedy for standstill economy. At first, this thesis presents standard monetary policy. Then, the analysis of the current monetary policy in the centres of the world economy, which means the USA, Europe and Japan, is carried out. From the analysis the main problems of current monetary policy emerge and then new tools and solutions implemented by various central banks for the purpose of solving these problems are analysed. At the end other possibilities of the monetary policy are presented in theory.
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Analýza vztahu tržní efektivity a transmise měnové politiky / Examining the Link between Financial Market Efficiency and Monetary Transmission MechanismKrejčí, Tadeáš January 2019 (has links)
In an effort to examine role of capital markets' efficiency in transmission of monetary policy, 28 time series of market efficiency development are estimated with use of long-term memory and fractal dimension measures and a panel of 27 inflation targeting countries is constructed to run a random effect regres- sion. The cases of Czech Republic and Austria are thereafter more closely examined with use a vector-autoregressive and threshold vector-autoregressive frameworks on macroeconomic data spanning from 1996:Q3 to 2018:Q4. The evidence obtained through the conducted analyses support the hypothesis, that a more efficiently functioning capital market better contributes to monetary policy pass-through, or conversely, that high transaction costs, barriers to cap- ital market entry, or poor information availability may hinder the effects of central bank's monetary policy. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords capital market efficiency, inflation targeting, monetary transmission mechanism Author's e-mail teddy.krejci@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail LK@fsv.cuni.cz
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Jak nízká inflace v eurozóně ovlivňuje inflaci v České republice? / (How) Does low inflation in euro area affect inflation in the Czech Republic?Veselý, Vladimír January 2016 (has links)
The goal of this thesis is to identify domestic and foreign shocks that mostly explain variation in the Czech price level. This goal is accomplished by the use of structural vector autoregression. As the Czech Republic is considered to be a small open economy, it is crucial to include foreign variables into the model which are represented by shocks in euro zone. Furthermore, a block exogeneity restriction is imposed because it is unlikely that shocks in the Czech economy can influence macroeconomic development in euro zone. The results of the thesis indicate that foreign shocks explain 70% variability in Czech price level out of which 50% is explained by euro zone's price level shocks. It is likely that in near future Czech economy will experience deflation for a while. Nevertheless, by 2018 Czech inflation rate should be in 1-3% band.
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Inflation dynamics and its effects on monetary policy rulesMoleka, Elvis Musango January 2015 (has links)
This thesis examines dynamic relationships between inflation and monetary policy in a sample of African economies using quarterly data over the period 1980:01 to 2012:04. The literature on inflation dynamics and monetary policy focuses on developed economies, with little attention devoted to the African economies, which is potentially explained by the fact that in the past monetary policy played second fiddle because of fiscal policy dominance following episodes of high inflation and stabilization policies that occurred in the 1980's. This thesis fills an important gap in assessing African's monetary policy. The thesis predominantly uses the Vector-Autoregression (VAR) framework to examine the monetary policy frameworks of the African economies. The thesis finds that an interest rate shock on average explain a more significant proportion of the variance in the output gap and inflation than the exchange rate, in terms of analysing the decomposition of shocks to the economy. This shows a shift in the monetary policy focus away from exchange rate management to interest rate targeting as the African economies have become more market oriented. The monetary policy reveal strong asymmetric responses with respect to the macroeconomic variables when inflation exceeds its threshold value. The analysis suggests that monetary policy in the African economies is regime-dependent, propagated through the inflation thresholds, such that the authorities strongly implement policy changes when inflation goes beyond a certain threshold. The thesis reveals that by taking into account the prior belief of the monetary authorities, it helps produce better estimates of the performance of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, as it combines prior information with the sampling information which is contained in the data. The overall novelty of the thesis is that some African economies are adopting inflation targeting policies instead of exchange rate management. It is imperative that the subsequent inflation targeting frameworks will achieve monetary policy objectives for the African economies and the use of interest rate management should be continued.
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Transmisní mechanismus dopadů měnové politiky ČNB do bankovního sektoru České republiky / The transmission mechanism of the monetary policy impact on the Czech banking sectorBohovicová, Petra January 2017 (has links)
This thesis analyzes the impact of the monetary policy of the Czech Republic on the Czech banking sector. It explains the monetary transmission mechanism in an inflation targeting regime and its channels: interest rates channel, asset price channel, exchange rate channel and credit channel. The aim of the thesis is to introduce and analyze channels of the Czech transmission mechanism by Correlation and Graphical Analysis of chosen time series and using Linear Regression Model. The analyses are calculated in MS Excel and Gretl.
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Monetární politika Ruské federace / Monetary policy in Russian FederationBryntsev, Maksim January 2014 (has links)
The aim of the thesis is to analyze and to explain monetary policy of Russian central bank and to determine its specific characteristics during 2010 -- 2014 as well as to describe its main instruments, goals, models and methods of regulation. First of all, the author will introduce common problems of monetary policy and there will be described general theoretical aspects of monetary policy functioning as well as impacts of monetary measures in open economy with different regimes of exchange policy and capital mobility. Further, there will be described instruments and transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The author will try to describe conditions of monetary policy realization, which have an impact on the direction of Bank of Russia measures, within the analytical part. The author will describe instruments that are characteristic for Russian central bank and foreign exchange policy, which are important for prediction of impact from monetary actions. At the end of the thesis the author will try to estimate an efficiency of monetary policy with the comparison of reality and the prognoses of Bank of Russia.
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