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Recent severe weather research has examined the potential role of total lightning patterns in the severe thunderstorm warning-decision process although none to-date have examined these patterns in explicitly weak-shear environments. Total lightning flashes detected by the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) during the 2012-13 convective seasons (1 May – 31 August) over a region of the Central Appalachian Mountains were clustered into likely discrete thunderstorms and subsequently classified as either single-cell or multicell/supercell storm modes. The classification of storms was determined using a storm index (SI) which was informed by current National Weather Service (NWS) identification techniques. The 36 days meeting the minimum threshold of lightning activity were divided into 24 lightning-defined (LD) single-cell thunderstorm days and 12 LD multicell/supercell days. LD single-cell days possessed statistically significant lower 0000 UTC 0-6 km wind shear (13.8 knots) than LD multicell/supercell days (26.5 knots) consistent with traditional expectations of single-cell and multicell/supercell environments respectively. The popular 2σ total lightning jump algorithm was applied to all flashes associated with 470 individual LD thunderstorms. The frequencies of the storms’ total lightning jumps were then compared against any associated severe weather reports as an accuracy assessment. The overall performance of the algorithm among both categories was much poorer than in previous studies. While probability of detections (POD) of the 2σ algorithm were comparable to previous research, false alarm rates (FAR) were much greater than previously documented. Given these results, the 2σ algorithm does not appear fit for operational use in a weak shear environment. / Master of Science

The Arizona Monsoon Boundary is defined as the boundary separating two distinctly different air masses over Mexico, the southwestern United States, and the adjacent Pacific during the summer. The structure and dynamics of this boundary are examined by cross-sectional analysis using three different data sources: (1) a time-height cross section, constructed using radiosonde observations, at the time the boundary initially passed through Tucson in 1984; (2) a composite cross section through the boundary, constructed from the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center analysis; and (3) a cross section through the boundary using high-resolution fields of temperature, moisture, and geopotential height obtained from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS). All three cross sections showed similar structure. In some respects, the Arizona monsoon boundary resembles a mid-latitude front with a distinct and relatively sharp air mass change across the boundary, forced almost entirely by confluence. A direct ageostrophic circulation is produced by this forcing, giving weak ascent on the warm, moist side of the boundary. The gradients and flow associated with the composite boundary are weaker, by a factor of four, than those associated with strong mid-latitude fronts. However, the VAS cross section suggests that, at times, the strength of the boundary approaches that of middle-latitude fronts. The wind shear suggested by the composite boundary ought to be unstable to baroclinic or barotropic processes. Disturbances developing along the boundary have been observed. One example of such a disturbance is examined using GOES imagery, lightning strike data, cloud track winds, and VAS data. Satellite images show the disturbance resembling a mid-latitude occluded cyclone, with an apparent low pressure center over northern Baja California and front-like cloud features extending eastward and southward from the low. Lightning strike data show convective activity occurring along the front-like features. Wind data indicate the presence of a cyclonic circulation south of San Diego along the Baja California coast. Cross sections using VAS data suggest that barotropic and baroclinic energy sources are present and suggest the front-like nature of the cloud feature extending southward from the low pressure center. Additionally, a second disturbance that eventually interacted with the monsoon boundary is briefly examined using satellite imagery.

Squall lines possessing nearly all the characteristics of tropical squall lines occasionally develop during the summer monsoon over southern Arizona and northwestern Mexico. Initial thunderstorm formation is over the mountains along the Continental Divide in the late afternoon. Satellite imagery, cloud-to-ground lightning strike data, and surface observations indicate the squall lines move from east to west or northeast to southwest by discrete propagation faster than all the winds below 20 kPa so that most of the anvil clouds lag behind. The synoptic-scale circulation is anomalous with a strong ridge located over the western United States and a deep trough located over the eastern United States. West to northwest winds are found in the boundary layer over southern Arizona and northwest Mexico while a deep layer of east winds are observed above. As a result, most of the environmental wind shear is confined to the lowest 2.5 km above the ground. The low-level wind shear seems to be required for the westward propagation of thunderstorms and the formation of the squall lines. Extremely dry midtropospheric air develops in the easterly flow through some combination of advection and subsidence and also appears to be an important factor in the development of the squall lines. A two-dimensional, nonhydrostatic, numerical model was able to simulate many of the features observed in these squall lines. Solar heating of the elevated terrain in the model caused the initial thunderstorm to develop over the Continental Divide. Continued development of new thunderstorms to the west of the Divide produced a squall line that travelled westward by translation of cells and discrete propagation, wherein new cells would develop 10-25 km ahead of the old ones, at a speed greater than all the winds below 30 kPa. Upward motion produced by westward propagating gravity waves and by the strong low-level convergence found just ahead of the gust front appeared to cause several episodes of discrete propagation. The creation of horizontal potential temperature gradients and the vertical and horizontal advection of preexisting vorticity gradients combined to produce the vorticity field associated with the rear inflow jet that developed beneath the simulated squall line.

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Thesis. 1976. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Meteorology. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography: leaves 38-39. / M.S.

8 pp. / This publication provides an depth look at the North American Monsoon system and its impact on summer weather in Arizona.

This study investigates the impact of the synoptic-scale flow on the propagation and intensity of the sea breeze front at Eglin Air Force Base. The 925 mb wind direction and speed from the 12 UTC Tallahassee sounding was used to categorize 509 summer days as having an offshore, onshore, or coast parallel synoptic-scale flow regimes. Days with similar synoptic-scale flows were then composited together to create hourly surface analyses for each regime. Sea breeze frontogenesis, location and intensity were analyzed on hourly plots of temperature, winds and frontogenesis. Results indicate that the most intense sea breeze fronts formed under 3-5 1 ms- offshore, 7-9 1 ms- coast parallel easterly, and 3-5 1 ms- coast parallel westerly synoptic-scale flow while the weakest fronts formed under 0-3 1 ms- onshore and coast parallel westerly flow. The inland penetration of the sea breeze front was restricted under offshore flow but propagated through the Eglin Range Complex under onshore flow. The intensity of the sea breeze front was found to be a balance between convergence (frontogenetic) and turbulent mixing (frontolytic). Under onshore flow the sea breeze front formed late in the afternoon when convergence at the front was maximized and turbulent mixing decreased. Under offshore flow, the strongest sea breeze fronts formed early in the afternoon due to strong convergence between offshore and onshore winds and weak turbulent mixing.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oklahoma, 1997. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 75-78).

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