This thesis analyses the impact of three different trade shocks on labour market outcomes and firms’ performance. The first chapter evaluates the impact of an increase in import competition on employment, gender employment gap and structural transformation in Ethiopia over the 1994-2013 period. In the second chapter, the objective is to investigate the changes in the Egyptian trade policies on wages and job stability, with a panel dataset covering a 20 years period (1998-2018); the last chapter examines the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on firms with different modes of internationalization, in terms of changes in sales and in business strategies. By exploiting three different very rich micro-level datasets, we study trade shocks under three different perspectives: a worker-level perspective, a firm-level perspective and a local labour market perspective. What emerges is that the impact of trade shocks is ultimately an empirical question, and that the direction of results greatly depends on the economic context under analysis. When trade liberalization is implemented in countries whose structural transformation process is still at an early stage, as in the Ethiopian case, this can harm rather than benefit their economies. On the other hand, the evidence in the third chapter suggests that being interconnected in the international market can help firms mitigating the shock, not only when the shock is domestic or idiosyncratic, but also, as in the case of Covid-19, when the it affects the whole global economy.

This research investigates the impact of disruptions and regional integration on agricultural and food trade, relying on a unique international and intranational (domestic) agri-food trade dataset and structural gravity. In the first chapter, we investigate the impact of animal diseases on trade of animal-based products. We found that animal disease outbreaks decrease exports by 4% on average per year, amounting to annualized losses of 96 billion of 2019 USD. Trade quantities decline by 8% (51 million tons) on average per year. Impacts are mostly concentrated on consumer products (mainly pork), and low-income and lower-medium-income exporting countries. Our results suggest that animal diseases affect more domestic markets than foreign ones, and that dependent importers are the most sensitive to animal disease outbreaks abroad. Lastly, participation in the same RTA is found to mitigate animal diseases' trade impact, showing another potential channel through which regional integration could affect members' trade. In the second chapter, we explore the effect of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on agricultural and food trade flows. We consider the entire official lifetime of the agreement, including its 14-years phase-in period, which allow us to offer a comprehensive evaluation of one of the biggest trade agreements on agri-food trade. NAFTA is found to increase members' trade on average by 54%, corresponding to 11.9 billion of 2020 USD, annually. Trade involving Mexico, and especially Canada-Mexico, has increased substantially showing that trade agreements between developed and developing countries could be beneficial to both members. NAFTA's impact is found to be heterogeneous by products with cereals experiencing the biggest increase. Trade of products incompletely liberalized by NAFTA such as dairy, poultry, and eggs, did not increase as much as the trade of liberalized products. We do not find evidence of trade diversion, suggesting that NAFTA's agri-food trade gains did not come at the expense of trading with other partners. Lastly, NAFTA appears to be more trade enhancing (about four times more) than other agreements of Canada, Mexico and the U.S. (e.g. Canada-E.U., or Mexico-Brazil, or U.S.-Korea.) In the third chapter, we question whether trade agreements alleviate the impact of shocks on trade. More specifically, we investigate if RTAs mitigate the impact of exchange rate (ER) volatility on agri-food trade. We found that RTAs amplify the effect of ER volatility on agri-food trade. The trade impact of ER volatility on RTA members is found to be positive, suggesting that members' agri-food trade benefits from ER volatility, contrary to non-members' trade. This could result from larger profits from arbitrage due to reduced trade costs between RTA members. Our results display a strong heterogeneity according to sectors, exporters and importers' income, and level of integration of RTA. Only Partial Scope Agreements, the lowest regional integration level, amplify the effect of ER volatility on members' agri-food trade. / Doctor of Philosophy / This research evaluates the impact of factors that cause trade disruption and the impact of trade agreements on agricultural and food trade. In the first chapter, we investigate the impact of animal diseases on trade of animal-related products. Findings indicate that animal diseases decrease the value of trade on average 4% annually, amounting to 96 billion of 2019 USD annualized loss. Trade quantities are reduced by 8%, or 51 million tons yearly on average. This impact differs with respect to animal diseases, products, and income levels of countries. Animal diseases affect more the domestic market, while countries depending to foreign suppliers are those affected the most by animal disease outbreaks abroad. Regional trade agreements (RTAs) mitigate the impact of animal diseases, showing that trade integration could benefit their members beyond the lowering their tariffs. In the second chapter, we evaluate the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on agri-food trade. We found that NAFTA increased members' trade by 54%, amounting to 11.9 billion of 2020 USD annually on average. NAFTA's trade gains were distributed heterogeneously across members, with trade between Canada and Mexico recording the largest proportional gains. Cereals recorded substantial gains during NAFTA, while the trade of beef and vegetables also increased. The trade though of some products that did not become completely tariff-free by members, such as eggs, dairy, and poultry, underperformed. Lastly, NAFTA increased Canada, Mexico, and U.S. trade about 4.5 times more than the other agreements signed by the three countries. In the third chapter, we investigate whether RTAs mitigate the impact of exchange rate (ER) volatility on agri-food trade. The results suggest that RTAs amplify the impact of ER volatility, however, this is in favor of RTA members, since the impact of ER volatility on their trade is positive. The results are heterogeneous across sectors, incomes of exporters and importers, and extent of liberalization by RTAs. Partial Scope Agreements, the lowest level of trade liberalizing agreements, are the only type of RTAs that amplify (or affect in general) the effect of ER volatility on members' agri-food trade.

La première partie de la thèse se compose d'une recherche empirique visant à examiner si les producteurs de produits primaires s'adaptent mieux après un choc d'offre sous un régime de taux de change flottant. À l'aide d'un modèle VAR, j'ai trouvé que les régimes de taux de change flexible n'effectuent pas mieux à isoler l'économie des chocs externes. Par conséquent, la deuxième partie de la thèse vise à établir ou non si les régimes de taux de change fournissent certains avantages pour les pays exportateurs de produits primaires tels que le fait d'attirer les investissements directs a l'étranger. À l'aide de différentes estimations économétriques, les résultats montrent que les régimes de taux de change influencent les investissements directs à l'étranger et en particulier, les régimes de change fixes plutôt que les régimes plus flexibles. / The first part of dissertation consists of an empirical research aiming at investigating whether primary commodity producers perform better after a real shock with floating exchange rate regimes. Using a VAR model I found that flexible exchange rate regimes do not perform better at insulating the output from external shocks. Therefore, the second part of the dissertation aims at establishing whether or not exchange rate regimes provide certain benefit for those countries such as attracting foreign direct investments. Using panel data estimation techniques, I found that exchange rate regimes matters in attracting FDI and in particular fixed regimes rather than flexible regimes.

A partir de un modelo de ajuste dinámico en el mercado laboral se estiman costos de movilidad intersectorial del empleo para Argentina durante el período 1996-2009, siguiendo la metodología desarrollada en Artuç, Chaudhuri and McLaren (2010). Considerando los parámetros estimados se computan simulaciones para evaluar el impacto potencial de shocks comerciales y tecnológicos sobre la asignación sectorial del empleo, los salarios sectoriales y el bienestar de los trabajadores. Nuestros resultados indican la presencia de altos costos de ajuste en el empleo, lo que implica un ajuste lento en el mercado de trabajo como respuesta a shocks tecnológicos y comerciales. Encontramos que los costos son mayores para los trabajadores no calificados respecto de los trabajadores semi calificados, no difieren entre el sector del país que comprende al Gran Buenos Aires y la Región pampeana respecto al resto del país y presentan una estructura sectorial similar a la hallada por Artuç et al. (2010) para Estados Unidos. / This paper estimates workers’ intersectoral switching costs based on a dynamic model of labor adjustment using data for Argentina (1996-2009). The estimated parameters are incorporated into a neoclassical model of trade to simulate the dynamic equilibrium impact (on welfare, wages and labor allocation) of trade shocks and technological changes. The approach used in this paper follows the method developed in Artuç, Chaudhuri and McLaren (2010). Our estimates show that Argentinian workers face high average intersectoral adjustment costs. This result suggests that the adjustment of the labor market in response to shocks is slow.