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AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Nicole K. Jensen, for the Masters of Science degree in Forestry, presented on April 3, 2012, at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. TITLE: TREE-RING CHEMISTRY AND GROWTH RESPONSE TO EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED ACIDIFICATION MAJOR PROFESSOR: Dr. Eric Holzmueller Forest ecosystems in the eastern United States are threatened by acid deposition rates that have increased dramatically since industrialization. We utilized two watersheds at the Fernow Experimental Forest in West Virginia to examine long-term effects of acidification on ecological processes. One watershed has been treated with ammonium sulfate (approximately twice the ambient deposition rate) since 1989 to simulate acid deposition while the other served as a control. Prior to treatment both watersheds were similar in age and species composition. Ten dominant overstory Prunus serotina and Liriodendron tulipifiera trees were selected and cored from each watershed to measure bolewood concentrations of elements essential for growth over time. In addition, changes in tree species basal area were analyzed utilizing 50 long-term growth plots established in 1990. Results of this experiment show lower calcium and magnesium concentration and increased acidic cation concentration in the treated watershed for both species indicating a negative treatment effect. These results were similar to that of a previous study conducted at the Fernow with periods of significant differences in cation concentrations between the treated and control watershed. Growth response, measured through relative growth rates of cored trees and changes in basal area from growth plots, was not as conclusive, but it did appear that treatment may be having a negative affect for both species during the last measurement of the growth plots. These results indicate a need for further research to understand the impact of long-term acidification so that sustainable forest management practices in areas affected by acid deposition may be developed.

Networks of tree-ring data are commonly applied in statistical reconstruction of spatial fields of climate variables. The importance of elevation to the climatic interpretation of tree-ring networks is addressed using 281 station precipitation records, and a network of 79 tree-ring chronologies from different species and a range of elevations in the eastern Mediterranean. Cluster analysis of chronologies identifies 6 tree-ring groups, delineated principally by site elevation. Correlation analysis suggests several of the clusters are linked to homogenous elevational moisture regimes. Results imply that climate stations close to the elevations of the tree-ring sites are essential for assessing the seasonal climatic signal in tree-ring chronologies from this region. A broader implication is that the elevations of stations contributing to gridded climate networks should be considered in the design and interpretation of field reconstructions of climate from tree rings. Finally, results suggest elevation-stratified tree-ring networks as a strategy for seasonal climate reconstruction.

Many tropical trees do not form reliable annual growth rings, making it a challenge to develop tree-ring width chronologies for application to paleoclimatology in these regions. Here, I seek to establish high-resolution proxy climate records from trees without rings from the Monteverde Cloud Forest in Costa Rica using stable isotope dendroclimatology. Neotropical cloud forest ecosystems are associated with a relatively narrow range of geographic and hydroclimatic conditions, and are potentially sensitive to climate variability and change at time scales from annual to centennial and longer. My approach takes advantage of seasonal changes in the d18O of water sources used by trees over a year, a signature that is imparted to the radial growth and provides the necessary chronological control. A rapid wood extraction technique is evaluated and found to produce cellulose with d18O values indistinguishable from conventional approaches, although its application to radiocarbon requires a statistical correction. Analyses of plantation-grown Ocotea tenera reveal coherent annual d18O cycles up to 9 permil. The width of these cycles corresponds to observed basal growth increments. Interannual variability in d18O at this site is correlated with wet season precipitation anomalies. At higher elevations within the orographic cloud bank, year-to-year changes in the amplitude of oxygen isotope cycles show a relationship with dry season climate. Longer d18O chronologies from mature Pouteria (Sapotacae) reveal that dry season hydroclimatology is controlled at interannual time scales by variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (ENSO) and the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP), which are correlated with trade wind strength and local air temperature. A change in the late 1960s toward enhanced annual d18O amplitude may reflect low frequency changes in the Atlantic and Pacific ocean-atmosphere system. This study establishes the basis for cloud forest isotope dendroclimatology and demonstrates that the local climate of neotropical cloud forests is sensitive to interannual, and perhaps, multidecadal changes in important large-scale modes of climate variability.

Long-lived trees and excellent preservation of remnant wood allow examination of late-Holocene climate variability and its relation to woodland tree demography and populations of prehistoric agriculturalists in northeastern Utah using dendrochronological methods. Tree-ring chronologies are developed from Douglas-fir (Psuedotsuga menziesii) and Colorado pinyon (Pinus edulis) on the Tavaputs Plateau covering the last 2,300 years. The climate reconstructions fill an important temporal and spatial gap in our understanding of moisture related climate variability in the region. We investigate the relationships between climate and woodland demography by constructing a 1,500-year record of pinyon establishment and death. Twentieth-century expansion and infill of pinyon/juniper woodlands and more recent widespread die-offs in the early 21st century heighten the importance of understanding these relationships. The climate reconstruction is analyzed in light of the archaeological record of Fremont agriculturalists between approximately AD 550 and 1300, and provides the first glimpse of climate variability throughout the Fremont era in this region.Results of the hydroclimate reconstructions show that multidecadal droughts unlike any observed in the instrumental record occur regularly over the last 2,000 years. Droughts in the mid 12th century and late 13th century are synchronous those found in numerous other records across the southwestern United States. A drought in the early 6th century is especially severe. Analysis of pinyon demography indicates rates of tree establishment, release, and death are highly variable over the last 1,500 years. Broad peaks in tree establishment occur in the 7th and 8th centuries, the 12th and 13th centuries, and again in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries. Higher tree death rates are related to dry periods, but tree establishment is only weakly associated with wetter periods. Instead, cohorts of suppressed young trees established over decades tend to synchronously experience rapid growth rate increases during wet periods following droughts. Stands appear more susceptible to population turnover as semi-dominant cohorts of trees age and decline. Two critical periods in Fremont archaeology in the region, coincide with significant changes in moisture conditions. These changes follow longer periods of stability suggesting that changes in the predictability of climate conditions may have impacted Fremont agriculturalists in the region.

This paper presents an analysis of tree-ring growth patterns of male and female Fraxinus mandshurica trees from 1931 to 2007. The specific object was to study the response of radial growth to climate variables separately for male and female trees. The results show that the growth patterns in the two genders were similar during the mid-1950s to 1970s but different in the periods 1931–1940s and 1980–2007. In the period 1980–2007, the mean sensitivity and mean widths of the tree rings were significantly different between the genders (p < 0.05). The climate-growth response in female and male trees was also different. Female trees are sensitive to precipitation in November of the previous year, whereas male trees respond to mean temperature in November of the previous year. The results confirm that climatic sensitivity in male and female trees of dioecious species is different, yet this difference is not stable through time.

The Mid-Atlantic coastal forests in Virginia are stressed by episodic disturbance from storms associated with hurricanes and nor'easters. Using annual tree ring data, we adopt a dendroclimatic and statistical modelling approach to understand the response and resilience of a coastal pine forest to slow progressive climate change and extreme storm surge events. Results indicate that radial growth of trees in the study area is influenced by age, vigor, competition, microsite variability, and regional climatic trends, but dominated periodically by disturbance due to storm surges. We evaluated seven local storm surge events to understand the effect of storm surges associated with nor'easters and hurricanes on radial growth. A general decline in radial growth was observed in the year of the storm and three years following it, after which the radial growth starts recovering. Given the projected increase in hurricanes and storm surge severity with changing global climate, this study contributes to understanding declining tree growth response and resilience of coastal forests to past disturbances. This can help predict vegetation response patterns to similar disturbances in the future.

Tennessee Valley surface water is important to economic and population growth in the southeastern United States. By expanding streamflow records, water planners and managers can make decisions based on hydrologic events not appearing in current instrumental records. In the following research, monthly flow data from six USGS streamflow gages on the Clinch, Emory, Holston, and Nolichucky Rivers is used to create seasonal and annual streamflow seasons. Approximately 70 tree-ring chronologies across the Southeast U.S. are prescreened by length and correlation analysis against 38 streamflow seasons revealing that the May-June-July (MJJ) streamflow period displays the best tree-ring climate signal. The screened chronologies are then entered into stepwise linear regression, and R2 values for the six models range from 0.36 to 0.52. Reconstruction models range indicate estimation errors due to multicollinearity of the streamflow and tree-ring chronology datasets are minimal. The Durbin-Watson statistics indicate the model residuals do not autocorrelate, except for the Nolichucky River streamflow model, which may possess serial correlation. The positive values of the RE parameter indicate each of the models have statistical skill, and the RMSE parameter provides error ranges equal to 18 to 44% of the average observed instrumental flows. Based on the results, three gages, the Nolichucky, NF Holston, and SF Holston, were deemed acceptable. These models represent the first statistically skillful streamflow reconstructions in the Tennessee Valley. The reconstructions range from 209 to 295 years in length ending in 1980 and extending as far back as 1686. Examination of the reconstructions shows extreme drought in the 1770s. The wettest periods occurred from the 1970s to the mid-2000s. Other severe drought events occurred in the 1700s, the 1840s, and the early 1910s proving current records do not provide full accounts of Tennessee Valley streamflow variability.

The isotopic labelling of carbon in tree-rings varies as a function of growth season temperature and relative humidity. The isotopic labelling of oxygen in tree-rings varies as a function of source-water isotopic composition and humidity-dependent evaporative enrichment of leaf water during the growth season. The season of carbon-isotope labelling was identified statistically as late-spring to early-fall (April to October) for temperatures and relative humidity with a three-year weighted (50-30-20) carry-over due mainly to stored photosynthates. The season of oxygen-isotope labelling was identified statistically as a combination of a winter (pDecember to March) source-water signal (temperature-dependent precipitation isotope composition) with a late-spring to early-fall (April to October) humidity signal (evaporative enrichment of leaf water). A two-year carry-over was attributed to the residence time of soil water, but no notable photosynthate carry-over was identified. Carbon- and oxygen- (mechanistic) isotope response surface models were then compared and contrasted to regression-based bivariate and univariate models. It was found that in most cases the isotope response surface models were the best means of predicting isotopic labelling when environmental data are known. The carbon-isotope response surface was used to reconstruct 50-years (AD 1900-1954) of relative humidity data by introducing measured carbon isotope values and instrumental growth season temperature. During the analysis of the oxygen-isotope response surface we found an isotope-temperature relation that appears to reflect circulation-dependent damping. To verify this we introduced scaled values of the North Pacific index as a proxy for this suppression. The coupling of the isotope response surfaces generated a humidity reconstruction that is also thought to be driven by atmospheric circulation. Our reconstruction shows that the fluctuations in temperature range have not exceeded the natural variability in the instrumental record of the 20th century; however, the atmospheric moisture (humidity) reconstruction predicts a directional drying trend in the Peace-Athabasca Delta that appears to reflect increasingly zonal circulation in western Canada over this period.