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Forecast hurricane tracks using a multi-model ensemble that is comprised by linearly combining the individual model forecasts have greatly reduced the average forecast errors when compared to individual dynamic model forecast errors. In this experiment, a complex adaptive system, the Tropical Agent Forecaster (TAF), is created to fashion a 'smart' ensemble forecast. The TAF uses autonomous agents to assess the historical performance of individual models and model combinations, called predictors, and weights them based on their average error compared to the best track information. Agents continually monitor themselves and determine which predictors, for the life of the storm, perform the best in terms of the distance between forecast and best-track positions. A TAF forecast is developed using a linear combination of the highest weighted predictors. When applied to the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, the TAF system with a requirement to contain a minimum of three predictors, consistently outperformed, although not statistically significant, the CONU forecast at 72 and 96 hours for a homogeneous data set. At 120 hours, the TAF system significantly decreased the average forecast errors when compared to the CONU.

, for the life of the storm, perform the best in terms of the distance between forecast and best-track positions. A TAF forecast is developed using a linear combination of the highest weighted predictors. When applied to the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, the TAF system with a requirement to contain a minimum of three predictors, consistently outperformed, although not statistically significant, the CONU forecast at 72 and 96 hours for a homogeneous data set. At 120 hours, the TAF system significantly decreased the average forecast errors when compared to the CONU. The multi-agent (MAS) system approach opens the door for statistically significant forecast improvement. / US Navy (USN) author.

evel relative vorticity, a decrease in westerly vertical wind shear, and increased convection in the West African monsoon (WAM). The second and third modes of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the 700-hPa height anomalies identify a distinct Rossby-wave pattern. Significant variability in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude circulations is related to the two EOF modes and to equatorward Rossby-wave dispersion. Formation of a large cyclonic anomaly over the southeast Pacific, west of Chile, is related to equatorward propagation of a Rossby-like wave across South America, toward the equatorial Atlantic. The cyclonic anomaly precedes an increase in WAM convection by an average of two days, which then precedes westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial North Atlantic by several days. Tropical cyclone formation is found to be enhanced when the increased equatorial westerly anomalies coincide with reduced vertical wind shear, which is related to Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulations / US Air Force (USAF) author.

This investigation explored the use of microcosms as a tool for studying the dynamics of tropical aquaculture ponds. The potential use of rabbit excreta as a pond fertilizer in integrated farming systems was also investigated. Twelve insulated fiber glass tanks were utilized as microcosms to simulate earthen ponds. Seven hand-sexed Nile Tilapia O. niloticus) were stocked per tank, and microcosm performance was observed for a 90- day experimental period. Three rabbit excreta loading rates corresponding to 50 and 75 kg/10,000 m³ /day, and a continuously adjusted manure loading rate were assessed. The fertilizer treatments were compared to a control treatment where fish were fed on a prepared food. Water quality variables and fish performance were regularly monitored. Nitrogen and phosphorous content of rabbit excreta were measured. The dynamics of the microcosms were similar to warm water earthen ponds with respect to physical and chemical characteristics. Statistical differences were detected between control and fertilized treatments in relation to dissolved oxygen levels, net primary productivity, total alkalinity, total ammonia and orthophosphate levels. Primary productivity was influenced more by light intensity and penetration than by nutrient limitation. Rabbit excreta overloading was observed in the 75 kg treatment. Fish growth was greatest in the control treatment, but it was not statistically different from the continuously adjusted fertilizer treatment (Pondclass) (0.0065 and 0.0056, respectively). Low daily fish gains were observed in the 50 and 75 kg treatments. Low dissolved oxygen and high total ammonia were concentrations resulted in low weight gains and condition indices of fish in the 50 and 75 kg treatments. Extrapolated fish yields corresponded to 6,205, 4,563, 3,686, 4,869 kg/ha/year for control, 50 kg, 75 kg and Pondclass treatments, respectively. The observed yields are comparable with field experiences in real ponds. The continuously adjusted treatment showed the lowest manure conversion ratio (3.85) in the fertilized treatments. The nitrogen content of rabbit excreta varied according to rabbit size, presence or absence of urine plus water waste, and food droppings. Urine plus water waste provided 28 % of the total nitrogen content in rabbit excreta, whereas food droppings provided 12 %. Rabbit urine may play an important role in aquacultural systems because it contains a large fraction of nitrogen in inorganic forms which are readily utilized for algal growth. Other rabbit excreta characteristics such as buoyancy may be advantageous in aquacultural systems. Rabbit excreta is a potentially rich source of fertilizer for use in fish ponds. / Graduation date: 1992

published_or_final_version / Geography and Geology / Master / Master of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Geography and Geology / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Atmospheric kinetic energy calculations at 500 mb are carried out for the tropical region 20N to 20S on a daily basis during the month of September 1957. The basic data consist of grid point values of wind direction and speed obtained from streamline and isotach analyses of the tropical charts. [...]

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