The use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series over the last decades has increased our understanding of vegetation change dynamics from global to regional scale through quantitative analysis of inter-annual trends in NDVI and climatological parameters (rainfall and temperature). Change in land cover induced by human activities such as livestock grazing and deforestation for large-scale farming (subsistence and mechanized) has influenced the ecological pattern of the Guinea savannah region (GSR) of Nigeria, thereby resulting in loss of biodiversity and changes in vegetation cover. In the context of the GSR of Nigeria where agriculture still plays a major role in people’s economy, it is important to identify the relationship between climatic variables, vegetation productivity and human activities which can be used to understand the on-going transition processes. This study, therefore, examines the spatial and temporal relationship between NDVI and climate parameters, land use land cover change (LULCC) and the perspective of local people on vegetation change dynamics in the study region. In order to do this, bi-monthly NDVI3g time series datasets from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS), monthly rainfall datasets from Tropical Applications of Meteorology Satellite (TAMSAT), monthly temperature datasets from Climate Research Unit (CRU), national land use land cover (LULC) data of Nigeria from Forestry Management Evaluation & Coordination Unit (FORMECU), global land cover datasets from European Space Agency, Landsat imagery and socio-economic field data collection were used in order to understand vegetation change dynamics across the Guinea savannah regions of Nigeria. Time series analysis (TSA) was applied to both NDVI and climate data used in order to examine the temporal dynamics of vegetation cover change and to detect NDVI-climate relationship during the period from 1983 through 2011. Both parametric and non-parametric statistical models were employed for the assessment of long-term inter-annual trend on the decomposed time series datasets for the whole region (Guinea savannah region) and selected locations. In addition to the TSA, harmonic regression analysis was performed on NDVI and rainfall datasets in order to examine change in seasonality and phyto-phenological characteristics of vegetation. Detection of change in land use and land cover was done by extracting information from existing land cover datasets (ancillary datasets). CLASlite was used for the assessment of the extent of deforestation, while linkage between remotely sensed data and social science was carried out via field surveys based on questionnaires in order to understand the drivers of vegetation change. The study reveals that about 90 % of the Guinea savannah region show positive NDVI trends which indicate greening over time, while about 10 % of the region shows negative trends. This greening trends are closely related to regions where intensive agriculture is being practiced (also along inland valleys) while regions with negative trends show significant loss in woodlands (forest and shrublands) as well as herbaceous vegetation cover due to over-grazing by agro-pastoralism. The result confirms that there is a good relationship (statistically significant positive correlation) between rainfall and NDVI both on intra-annual and inter annual time scale for some selected locations in the study region (> 65 %), while negative statistical correlation exists between NDVI and temperature in the selected locations. This implies that vegetation growth (productivity) in the region is highly dependent on rainfall. The result of the harmonic regression analysis reveals a shift in the seasonal NDVI pattern, indicating an earlier start and a more prolonged growing season in 2011 than in 1983. This study proves significant change in LULC with evidence of an increase in the spatial extent of agricultural land (+ 30 %) and loss of woodlands (- 55 %) between 2000 and 2009 for Kogi State. The results of the socio-economic analysis (people’s perception) highlight that vegetation change dynamics in the study region are the resultant effects of increased anthropogenic activities rather than climatic variability. This study couples data from remote sensing and ground survey (socio-economics) for a better understanding of greening trend phenomena across the Guinea savannah region of Nigeria, thus filling the gap of inadequate information on environmental condition and human perturbation which is essential for proper land use management and vegetation monitoring.

The use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series over the last decades has increased our understanding of vegetation change dynamics from global to regional scale through quantitative analysis of inter-annual trends in NDVI and climatological parameters (rainfall and temperature). Change in land cover induced by human activities such as livestock grazing and deforestation for large-scale farming (subsistence and mechanized) has influenced the ecological pattern of the Guinea savannah region (GSR) of Nigeria, thereby resulting in loss of biodiversity and changes in vegetation cover. In the context of the GSR of Nigeria where agriculture still plays a major role in people’s economy, it is important to identify the relationship between climatic variables, vegetation productivity and human activities which can be used to understand the on-going transition processes. This study, therefore, examines the spatial and temporal relationship between NDVI and climate parameters, land use land cover change (LULCC) and the perspective of local people on vegetation change dynamics in the study region. In order to do this, bi-monthly NDVI3g time series datasets from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS), monthly rainfall datasets from Tropical Applications of Meteorology Satellite (TAMSAT), monthly temperature datasets from Climate Research Unit (CRU), national land use land cover (LULC) data of Nigeria from Forestry Management Evaluation & Coordination Unit (FORMECU), global land cover datasets from European Space Agency, Landsat imagery and socio-economic field data collection were used in order to understand vegetation change dynamics across the Guinea savannah regions of Nigeria. Time series analysis (TSA) was applied to both NDVI and climate data used in order to examine the temporal dynamics of vegetation cover change and to detect NDVI-climate relationship during the period from 1983 through 2011. Both parametric and non-parametric statistical models were employed for the assessment of long-term inter-annual trend on the decomposed time series datasets for the whole region (Guinea savannah region) and selected locations. In addition to the TSA, harmonic regression analysis was performed on NDVI and rainfall datasets in order to examine change in seasonality and phyto-phenological characteristics of vegetation. Detection of change in land use and land cover was done by extracting information from existing land cover datasets (ancillary datasets). CLASlite was used for the assessment of the extent of deforestation, while linkage between remotely sensed data and social science was carried out via field surveys based on questionnaires in order to understand the drivers of vegetation change. The study reveals that about 90 % of the Guinea savannah region show positive NDVI trends which indicate greening over time, while about 10 % of the region shows negative trends. This greening trends are closely related to regions where intensive agriculture is being practiced (also along inland valleys) while regions with negative trends show significant loss in woodlands (forest and shrublands) as well as herbaceous vegetation cover due to over-grazing by agro-pastoralism. The result confirms that there is a good relationship (statistically significant positive correlation) between rainfall and NDVI both on intra-annual and inter annual time scale for some selected locations in the study region (> 65 %), while negative statistical correlation exists between NDVI and temperature in the selected locations. This implies that vegetation growth (productivity) in the region is highly dependent on rainfall. The result of the harmonic regression analysis reveals a shift in the seasonal NDVI pattern, indicating an earlier start and a more prolonged growing season in 2011 than in 1983. This study proves significant change in LULC with evidence of an increase in the spatial extent of agricultural land (+ 30 %) and loss of woodlands (- 55 %) between 2000 and 2009 for Kogi State. The results of the socio-economic analysis (people’s perception) highlight that vegetation change dynamics in the study region are the resultant effects of increased anthropogenic activities rather than climatic variability. This study couples data from remote sensing and ground survey (socio-economics) for a better understanding of greening trend phenomena across the Guinea savannah region of Nigeria, thus filling the gap of inadequate information on environmental condition and human perturbation which is essential for proper land use management and vegetation monitoring.