My dissertation studies various questions falling into the broad context of macroeconomics and international economics. The questions have macroeconomic components because they are concerned with the behavior of aggregates. Specifically, the second and third chapters of my dissertation study the causes of fluctuations in aggregate macroeconomic variables and the way policy can be coordinated internationally to reduce these fluctuations, respectively. In addition, chapters III and IV address questions that fall into the realm of international economics. They are concerned with the optimal exchange rate regime between two countries, the consequences of partial exchange rate pass-through and the effect of an increase in vertical Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by domestic firms. The framework of my analysis is given by different versions of general equilibrium models. The second chapter of my dissertation decomposes fluctuations in aggregate observables for the UK economy during the 1980s recession. Using a modern accounting procedure, I estimate parameters that describe the economy using annual data from 1970 to 2002. Then, I simulate different versions of the model to find the distortions that are essential in driving the observed fluctuations. I find labor market distortions to be crucial in accounting for the episode, suggesting that the policies of the time were well targeted and effective. The third chapter of my dissertation studies policy coordination in a two-country framework allowing for partial pass-through. In particular, both countries are assumed to have monetary and fiscal stabilization instruments available. The optimal setting of these instruments under differing pass-through regimes is analytically derived. Fiscal policy is found to be used in a counter-cyclical fashion. In addition, the magnitude of fiscal stabilization is the largest when pass-through is partial. In the fourth chapter, I study the consequences of vertical FDI on aggregate productivity and welfare. The framework allows for heterogeneity across firms in two dimensions. It is firms that are at a disadvantage with respect to manufacturing costs that are benefiting most from moving their production process abroad. Overall, the ability to engage in vertical FDI increases productivity, lowers prices and thus increases welfare.

xii, 132 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / Motivated by conflicting prior evidence for exchange rate effects on foreign direct investment (FDI), the first chapter of this dissertation explores theoretical evidence of the exchange rate effect on FDI in terms of different types of FDI. Based on a simple two-country model, I demonstrate that the profit function of a horizontal FDI investor is a decreasing function of the exchange rate, while the profit function for a vertical FDI investor is an increasing function of the exchange rate. This implies that a depreciation of a host country currency depresses horizontal FDI and promotes vertical FDI. Moreover, comparing the FDI investor's intertemporal profit in a simple two-period time frame, I lay out a theoretical basis for a relation between the effects of the exchange rate and the expectations of the exchange rate effect on different types of FDI. The second chapter of this dissertation examines the empirical evidence for the exchange rate effects on different types of FDI. Using cross-border mergers and acquisitions among 37 countries from 1985 to 2007, I measure horizontal and vertical FDI in 4 different ways, and constructing directional country pairs, I estimate the exchange rate effects on horizontal and vertical FDI by a Poisson and a negative binomial regression with fixed and random effects. The estimation results provide considerable support for the model's predictions of the first chapter. The third chapter of this dissertation extends the first and second chapters with an analysis of the effect of exchange rate expectations on different types of FDI. I examine 4 different measures of exchange rate expectations. Using a methodology similar to that in the second chapter, the estimation results suggest that the expected exchange rate effects on horizontal and vertical FDI are not very significant. However, the expectations of the exchange rate shed more light on the exchange rate effects on different types of FDI under all of the exchange rate expectation measures. This suggests that the exchange rate is a more influential determinant of the allocation of different types of FDI than the expected exchange rate. / Committee in charge: Bruce Blonigen, Chairperson, Economics; Jeremy Piger, Member, Economics; Stephen Haynes, Member, Economics; Neviana Petkova, Outside Member, Finance

In literature it has been stated that in times of low capital barriers policies can impact real exchange rates (RERs) and, it has been shown that RERs influence foreign direct investment (FDI). As inward FDI is a growth stimulating factor for the German economy and as more than a third of inward FDI stems from countries in the European Union (EU), this study investigates the RER-FDI link between Germany and seven EU countries. The impact of bilateral RERs between Germany and seven EU countries on German net FDI inflows is examined for the period 1974-2018. Further, it is investigated how the euro introduction in 1999 affected the RER-FDI links. Using Ordinary Least Squares models it is found that in the pre-euro period a real German currency appreciation led to decreases in net FDI from most economies in scope. This negative RER-FDI link endures for the non-euro countries Sweden, Denmark, and the United Kingdom after the euro introduction. France, Italy, and Spain, euro countries, are subject to the euro-effect: the negative RER-FDI link changes to a positive link with the euro introduction. This phenomenon indicates an altering investment behavior. The results are strengthened by a panel estimation as robustness check. As the euro-effect was not discovered in previous studies nor is a theory established explaining the altering investment behavior of euro firms, this thesis suggests an alternative explanation.

In their pursuit of profits, adventure and new markets, humans have traded since prehistoric times. The relations between trade, profits and technological change, how- ever, were not the main concern of early economists ranging from Aristotle to the mercantilists. Presumably because in their world, the rate of technological change was decidedly low, and the basket and quality of goods available through production and trade did not change much over decades, or even centuries! In addition, it was not the technological change that brought markets closer, but “the ferocity of nomadic horsemen or the edge of a scimitar”, while “violently imposed monopolies and plunder”. (Findlay and O’Rourke, 2003) made trade more profitable. It was not until the industrial revolution that growth rates began to rise to high levels. Now that human inventions and discoveries came faster and cheaper than ever, trade liberalization was not only the way to gain access to new markets; trade liberalization had also a role in promoting growth. Trade liberalization in the form of lower trade costs, increases profits from exporting, and consequently, overall profits. That increases the incentives to innovate, produce something new and export it. Trade liberalization thus promotes technological change by increasing the incentives firms have to conduct R&D, implement the innovation or improvement and make larger profits. The field of economics that studies economic growth as the result of decisions made by profit-maximizing firms is called endogenous growth theory. There have been a number of theoretical advances in endogenous growth theory over the last 20 years, but there is no consensus on whether trade liberalization promotes growth or not. Some models predict that trade liberalization has a positive effect on growth. Other models predict no effect at all. In addition, not all countries have benefited equally from globalization. In this dissertation, I study the linkages between trade liberalization and economic growth (papers one and two). In papers two and three, I also explore the relationships between globalization, growth and the demand for labor. There is well documented evidence from a number of countries, that the demand for less-skilled labor has decreased in recent decades, and this decrease has resulted in a higher skilled-wage premium, that is, the degree in which the wages of skilled workers exceed less-skilled worker wages. This phenomenon has occurred in several countries, including the U.S. The skilled- wage premium has also increased in Europe, although less dramatically. In paper two, the relationships between trade liberalization, growth and wage inequality are analyzed using an endogenous growth model. The third and final paper is an empirical study on the relationships between the demand for labor and offshoring. More specifically, I examine what happens to the demand for different types of labor (not only skilled and unskilled labor) in the Swedish plants of Swedish multinational enterprises, when these multinationals expand abroad. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2011