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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Os efeitos da volatilidade do cÃmbio sobre as exportaÃÃes de commodities entre o Brasil e os seus principais parceiros comerciais no perÃodo 2000-2013 / The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports of commodities between Brazil and its major trading partners in the period 2000-2013

Marcelo Davi Santos 31 July 2014 (has links)
nÃo hà / A grande importÃncia que alguns estudos internacionais dÃo quanto aos efeitos da volatilidade do cÃmbio e da dinÃmica das polÃticas cambiais sobre as transaÃÃes comerciais vÃm crescendo nos Ãltimos anos. Todavia, nÃo hà um consenso na literatura precedente a respeito dos impactos da volatilidade cambial sobre o fluxo de exportaÃÃes e importaÃÃes. De Grauwe & Skudenly (2000), Ozturk (2006), Bahmani-Oskooee & Hegerty (2007) e Auboin & Ruta (2012) argumentam que uma maior variabilidade da taxa de cÃmbio à prejudicial ao comÃrcio entre paÃses. Para os autores, esse impacto negativo da volatilidade cambial sobre o volume financeiro de comÃrcio internacional decorre da teoria da escolha sob incerteza. O documento concentra-se principalmente em investigar os impactos da volatilidade da taxa de cÃmbio sobre os fluxos de exportaÃÃes de commodities do Brasil para Argentina, Alemanha, China e EUA durante 2000:T1 e 2013:T3. Para verificar a existÃncia de quebras estruturais na funÃÃo tendÃncia das variÃveis reais do modelo de fluxo de comÃrcio bilateral brasileiro, aplicou-se o teste sugerido por Perron & Yabu (2009). Os resultados desse teste indicaram que das vinte e cinco (25) sÃries analisadas, 64% apresentaram uma quebra no nÃvel e inclinaÃÃo na funÃÃo tendÃncia das mesmas. Com o objetivo de evitar resultados viesados em relaÃÃo à ordem de integraÃÃo das sÃries por causa da presenÃa de quebras estruturais, foram aplicados os testes de raiz unitÃria com quebras estruturais desenvolvidos por Lee & Strazicich (2003) e Lee & Strazicich (2004). Os resultados dos dois testes indicaram que das vinte e cinco (25) sÃries analisadas, 80% e 84%, sÃo estacionÃrias com uma e duas quebras, respectivamente. Isto Ã, podem ser caracterizadas como pertencentes à classe I(0). Para finalizar a anÃlise, aplicou-se o teste de quebra estrutural de Bai e Perron (1998) para analisar as mudanÃas na conduÃÃo da polÃtica cambial brasileira durante o perÃodo de 2000 a 2013. Os resultados indicaram a existÃncia de duas (2) quebras estruturais nos parÃmetros estimados da funÃÃo tendÃncia para as exportaÃÃes de commodities. / The great importance that some international studies give about the effects of exchange rate volatility and the dynamics of exchange rate policies on trade transactions have been growing in recent years. However, there is no consensus in the previous literature regarding the impact of exchange rate volatility on the flow of exports and imports. De Grauwe & Skudenly (2000), Ozturk (2006), Bahmani-Oskooee & Hegerty (2007) and Auboin & Ruta (2012) argue that greater variability of the exchange rate is detrimental to trade between countries. For the authors, this negative impact of exchange rate volatility on the financial volume of international trade stems from the theory of choice under uncertainty. The document focuses primarily on investigating the impact of the volatility of the exchange rate on the pattern of commodity exports from Brazil to Argentina, Germany, China and the United States during 2000: T1 and 2013: T3. To verify the existence of structural breaks in the trend function of real variables of the Brazilian bilateral trade flow model, was applied to the test suggested by Perron & Yabu (2009). The results of this test indicated that the twenty-five (25) series analyzed, 64% had a drop in the level and slope of the trend function thereof. In order to avoid biased results in relation to the order of integration of the series because of the presence of structural breaks, unit root tests were applied with structural breaks developed by Lee & Strazicich (2003) and Lee & Strazicich (2004). The results of both tests indicated that the twenty-five (25) series analyzed, 80% and 84%, are stationary with one or two breaks, respectively. That is, they can be characterized as belonging to class I (0). To complete the analysis, we applied the structural break test Bai and Perron (1998) to analyze the changes in the conduct of the Brazilian exchange rate policy during the period 2000 to 2013. The results indicated the existence of two (2) structural breaks the estimated parameters of the trend function for commodity exports.

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