京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第22476号 / 農博第2380号 / 新制||農||1074(附属図書館) / 学位論文||R2||N5256(農学部図書室) / 京都大学大学院農学研究科地域環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 中村 公人, 教授 星野 敏, 教授 藤原 正幸 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

One of the most applicable methods of low-temperature geothermal resource assessment is volumetric method. While applying volumetric method, the values of uncertain parameters should be determined. An add-in software program to Microsoft EXCEL, @RISK, is used as a tool to define the uncertainties of the parameters in volumetric equation. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation technique is used as the probabilistic approach for the assessment of lowtemperature Bal&ccedil / ova-Narlidere geothermal field. Although Bal&ccedil / ova-Narlidere geothermal field is being utilized for several direct heat applications, there exists limited data for resource assessment calculations. Assessment studies using triangular and uniform distribution type functions for each parameter gave the mean values of recoverable heat energy of the field as 25.1 MWt and 27.6 MWt, respectively. As optimistic values (90%), those values were found as 43.6 MWt and 54.3 MWt. While calculating these numbers, a project life of 25 years with a load factor of 50% is used.

This diplomathesis work is dealing with a concept of volumetric calibration of vessels using the volumetric method. The analysis considers current regulations together with influence of uncertainties in measurements. The principal part of the thesis is analysis of metrological uncertainties resulting from application of various volumetric methods during the calibration process. A practical outcome from this research is development of metrological process for calibration of vessels that could be used by the accredited laboratories.

This diploma thesis is concerned with assessment of two methods of gauging the flow rate used in the sphere of official measurements on profiles with an unrestricted water level. This is the method of collecting liquid into a volumetric vessel and the method of collecting liquid into a weighing vessel (pouch). The main purpose of this work was to specify uncertainties determined using method A and B for these two methods of gauging flow rate within the terms of addressing the Metrology Development Plan of the Czech Office for Standards, Metrology and Testing, because these uncertainties were previously determined using older methodology and using less accurate flow rate benchmarks. The entire work is based on extensive experimental measurement of the flow rate, using the assessed methods, executed at the Laboratory of Water Management Research in Brno. The method of collecting liquids into a volumetric vessel was assessed using four various vessel volumes - 9 l, 15 l, 30 l and 50 l. Relative uncertainties determined using method A and B in relation to flow rate are determined for each vessel in the experimental section of this work. Within the scope of this thesis, these uncertainties were also determined for the method of collection of liquid into weighing vessel (pouch), which was assessed for flow rates of from 0,5 l/s to 10,0 l/s.

ABSTRACT UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT IN RESERVE ESTIMATION OF A NATURALLY FRACTURED RESERVOIR ERI&Ccedil / OK, &Ouml / zlen M.S., Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering Supervisor : Prof. Dr. Fevzi G&Uuml / MRAH December 2004, 169 pages Reservoir performance prediction and reserve estimation depend on various petrophysical parameters which have uncertainties due to available technology. For a proper and economical field development, these parameters must be determined by taking into consideration their uncertainty level and probable data ranges. For implementing uncertainty assessment on estimation of original oil in place (OOIP) of a field, a naturally fractured carbonate field, Field-A, is chosen to work with. Since field information is obtained by drilling and testing wells throughout the field, uncertainty in true ranges of reservoir parameters evolve due to impossibility of drilling every location on an area. This study is based on defining the probability distribution of uncertain variables in reserve estimation and evaluating probable reserve amount by using Monte Carlo simulation method. Probabilistic reserve estimation gives the whole range of probable v original oil in place amount of a field. The results are given by their likelyhood of occurance as P10, P50 and P90 reserves in summary. In the study, Field-A reserves at Southeast of Turkey are estimated by probabilistic methods for three producing zones / Karabogaz Formation, Kbb-C Member of Karababa formation and Derdere Formation. Probability density function of petrophysical parameters are evaluated as inputs in volumetric reserve estimation method and probable reserves are calculated by @Risk software program that is used for implementing Monte Carlo method. Outcomes of the simulation showed that Field-A has P50 reserves as 11.2 MMstb in matrix and 2.0 MMstb in fracture of Karabogaz Formation, 15.7 MMstb in matrix and 3.7 MMstb in fracture of Kbb-C Member and 10.6 MMstb in matrix and 1.6 MMstb in fracture of Derdere Formation. Sensitivity analysis of the inputs showed that matrix porosity, net thickness and fracture porosity are significant in Karabogaz Formation and Kbb-C Member reserve estimation while water saturation and fracture porosity are most significant in estimation of Derdere Formation reserves.