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A sedimentological and geochemical approach to understanding cycles of stratovolcano growth and collapse at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandZernack, Anke Verena January 2008 (has links)
The long-term behaviour of andesitic stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth and collapse phases. This cyclic pattern may represent a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes, but is often difficult to identify because of long cycle-timescales, coupled with incomplete stratigraphic records. The volcaniclastic ring-plain succession surrounding the 2 518 m Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand, comprises a wide variety of distinctive volcanic mass-flow lithofacies with sedimentary and lithology characteristics that can be related to recurring volcanic cycles over >190 ka. Debrisflow and monolithologic hyperconcentrated-flow deposits record edifice growth phases while polylithologic debris-avalanche and associated cohesive debris-flow units were emplaced by collapse. Major edifice failures at Mt. Taranaki occurred on-average every 10 ka, with five events recognised over the last 30 ka, a time interval for which stratigraphic records are more complete. The unstable nature of Mt. Taranaki mainly results from its weak internal composite structure including abundant saturated pyroclastic deposits and breccia layers, along with its growth on a weakly indurated and tectonically fractured basement of Tertiary mudstones and sandstones. As the edifice repeatedly grew beyond a critical stable height or profile, large-scale collapses were triggered by intrusions preceding magmatic activity, major eruptions, or significant regional tectonic fault movements. Clasts within debris-avalanche deposits were used as a series of windows into the composition of previous successive proto-Mt Taranaki edifices in order to examine magmatic controls on their failure. The diversity of lithologies and their geochemical characteristics are similar throughout the history of the volcano, with the oldest sample suites displaying a slightly broader range of compositions including more primitive rock types. The evolution to a narrower range and higher-silica compositions was accompanied by an increase in K2O. This shows that later melts progressively interacted with underplated amphibolitic material at the base of the crust. These gradual changes imply a long-term stability of the magmatic system. The preservation of similar internal conditions during the volcano’s evolution, hence suggests that external processes were the main driving force behind its cyclic growth and collapse behaviour and resulting sedimentation pattern.
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A sedimentological and geochemical approach to understanding cycles of stratovolcano growth and collapse at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandZernack, Anke Verena January 2008 (has links)
The long-term behaviour of andesitic stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth and collapse phases. This cyclic pattern may represent a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes, but is often difficult to identify because of long cycle-timescales, coupled with incomplete stratigraphic records. The volcaniclastic ring-plain succession surrounding the 2 518 m Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand, comprises a wide variety of distinctive volcanic mass-flow lithofacies with sedimentary and lithology characteristics that can be related to recurring volcanic cycles over >190 ka. Debrisflow and monolithologic hyperconcentrated-flow deposits record edifice growth phases while polylithologic debris-avalanche and associated cohesive debris-flow units were emplaced by collapse. Major edifice failures at Mt. Taranaki occurred on-average every 10 ka, with five events recognised over the last 30 ka, a time interval for which stratigraphic records are more complete. The unstable nature of Mt. Taranaki mainly results from its weak internal composite structure including abundant saturated pyroclastic deposits and breccia layers, along with its growth on a weakly indurated and tectonically fractured basement of Tertiary mudstones and sandstones. As the edifice repeatedly grew beyond a critical stable height or profile, large-scale collapses were triggered by intrusions preceding magmatic activity, major eruptions, or significant regional tectonic fault movements. Clasts within debris-avalanche deposits were used as a series of windows into the composition of previous successive proto-Mt Taranaki edifices in order to examine magmatic controls on their failure. The diversity of lithologies and their geochemical characteristics are similar throughout the history of the volcano, with the oldest sample suites displaying a slightly broader range of compositions including more primitive rock types. The evolution to a narrower range and higher-silica compositions was accompanied by an increase in K2O. This shows that later melts progressively interacted with underplated amphibolitic material at the base of the crust. These gradual changes imply a long-term stability of the magmatic system. The preservation of similar internal conditions during the volcano’s evolution, hence suggests that external processes were the main driving force behind its cyclic growth and collapse behaviour and resulting sedimentation pattern.
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A sedimentological and geochemical approach to understanding cycles of stratovolcano growth and collapse at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandZernack, Anke Verena January 2008 (has links)
The long-term behaviour of andesitic stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth and collapse phases. This cyclic pattern may represent a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes, but is often difficult to identify because of long cycle-timescales, coupled with incomplete stratigraphic records. The volcaniclastic ring-plain succession surrounding the 2 518 m Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand, comprises a wide variety of distinctive volcanic mass-flow lithofacies with sedimentary and lithology characteristics that can be related to recurring volcanic cycles over >190 ka. Debrisflow and monolithologic hyperconcentrated-flow deposits record edifice growth phases while polylithologic debris-avalanche and associated cohesive debris-flow units were emplaced by collapse. Major edifice failures at Mt. Taranaki occurred on-average every 10 ka, with five events recognised over the last 30 ka, a time interval for which stratigraphic records are more complete. The unstable nature of Mt. Taranaki mainly results from its weak internal composite structure including abundant saturated pyroclastic deposits and breccia layers, along with its growth on a weakly indurated and tectonically fractured basement of Tertiary mudstones and sandstones. As the edifice repeatedly grew beyond a critical stable height or profile, large-scale collapses were triggered by intrusions preceding magmatic activity, major eruptions, or significant regional tectonic fault movements. Clasts within debris-avalanche deposits were used as a series of windows into the composition of previous successive proto-Mt Taranaki edifices in order to examine magmatic controls on their failure. The diversity of lithologies and their geochemical characteristics are similar throughout the history of the volcano, with the oldest sample suites displaying a slightly broader range of compositions including more primitive rock types. The evolution to a narrower range and higher-silica compositions was accompanied by an increase in K2O. This shows that later melts progressively interacted with underplated amphibolitic material at the base of the crust. These gradual changes imply a long-term stability of the magmatic system. The preservation of similar internal conditions during the volcano’s evolution, hence suggests that external processes were the main driving force behind its cyclic growth and collapse behaviour and resulting sedimentation pattern.
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A sedimentological and geochemical approach to understanding cycles of stratovolcano growth and collapse at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandZernack, Anke Verena January 2008 (has links)
The long-term behaviour of andesitic stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth and collapse phases. This cyclic pattern may represent a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes, but is often difficult to identify because of long cycle-timescales, coupled with incomplete stratigraphic records. The volcaniclastic ring-plain succession surrounding the 2 518 m Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand, comprises a wide variety of distinctive volcanic mass-flow lithofacies with sedimentary and lithology characteristics that can be related to recurring volcanic cycles over >190 ka. Debrisflow and monolithologic hyperconcentrated-flow deposits record edifice growth phases while polylithologic debris-avalanche and associated cohesive debris-flow units were emplaced by collapse. Major edifice failures at Mt. Taranaki occurred on-average every 10 ka, with five events recognised over the last 30 ka, a time interval for which stratigraphic records are more complete. The unstable nature of Mt. Taranaki mainly results from its weak internal composite structure including abundant saturated pyroclastic deposits and breccia layers, along with its growth on a weakly indurated and tectonically fractured basement of Tertiary mudstones and sandstones. As the edifice repeatedly grew beyond a critical stable height or profile, large-scale collapses were triggered by intrusions preceding magmatic activity, major eruptions, or significant regional tectonic fault movements. Clasts within debris-avalanche deposits were used as a series of windows into the composition of previous successive proto-Mt Taranaki edifices in order to examine magmatic controls on their failure. The diversity of lithologies and their geochemical characteristics are similar throughout the history of the volcano, with the oldest sample suites displaying a slightly broader range of compositions including more primitive rock types. The evolution to a narrower range and higher-silica compositions was accompanied by an increase in K2O. This shows that later melts progressively interacted with underplated amphibolitic material at the base of the crust. These gradual changes imply a long-term stability of the magmatic system. The preservation of similar internal conditions during the volcano’s evolution, hence suggests that external processes were the main driving force behind its cyclic growth and collapse behaviour and resulting sedimentation pattern.
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A sedimentological and geochemical approach to understanding cycles of stratovolcano growth and collapse at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandZernack, Anke Verena January 2008 (has links)
The long-term behaviour of andesitic stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth and collapse phases. This cyclic pattern may represent a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes, but is often difficult to identify because of long cycle-timescales, coupled with incomplete stratigraphic records. The volcaniclastic ring-plain succession surrounding the 2 518 m Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand, comprises a wide variety of distinctive volcanic mass-flow lithofacies with sedimentary and lithology characteristics that can be related to recurring volcanic cycles over >190 ka. Debrisflow and monolithologic hyperconcentrated-flow deposits record edifice growth phases while polylithologic debris-avalanche and associated cohesive debris-flow units were emplaced by collapse. Major edifice failures at Mt. Taranaki occurred on-average every 10 ka, with five events recognised over the last 30 ka, a time interval for which stratigraphic records are more complete. The unstable nature of Mt. Taranaki mainly results from its weak internal composite structure including abundant saturated pyroclastic deposits and breccia layers, along with its growth on a weakly indurated and tectonically fractured basement of Tertiary mudstones and sandstones. As the edifice repeatedly grew beyond a critical stable height or profile, large-scale collapses were triggered by intrusions preceding magmatic activity, major eruptions, or significant regional tectonic fault movements. Clasts within debris-avalanche deposits were used as a series of windows into the composition of previous successive proto-Mt Taranaki edifices in order to examine magmatic controls on their failure. The diversity of lithologies and their geochemical characteristics are similar throughout the history of the volcano, with the oldest sample suites displaying a slightly broader range of compositions including more primitive rock types. The evolution to a narrower range and higher-silica compositions was accompanied by an increase in K2O. This shows that later melts progressively interacted with underplated amphibolitic material at the base of the crust. These gradual changes imply a long-term stability of the magmatic system. The preservation of similar internal conditions during the volcano’s evolution, hence suggests that external processes were the main driving force behind its cyclic growth and collapse behaviour and resulting sedimentation pattern.
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A sedimentological and geochemical approach to understanding cycles of stratovolcano growth and collapse at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandZernack, Anke Verena January 2008 (has links)
The long-term behaviour of andesitic stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth and collapse phases. This cyclic pattern may represent a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes, but is often difficult to identify because of long cycle-timescales, coupled with incomplete stratigraphic records. The volcaniclastic ring-plain succession surrounding the 2 518 m Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand, comprises a wide variety of distinctive volcanic mass-flow lithofacies with sedimentary and lithology characteristics that can be related to recurring volcanic cycles over >190 ka. Debrisflow and monolithologic hyperconcentrated-flow deposits record edifice growth phases while polylithologic debris-avalanche and associated cohesive debris-flow units were emplaced by collapse. Major edifice failures at Mt. Taranaki occurred on-average every 10 ka, with five events recognised over the last 30 ka, a time interval for which stratigraphic records are more complete. The unstable nature of Mt. Taranaki mainly results from its weak internal composite structure including abundant saturated pyroclastic deposits and breccia layers, along with its growth on a weakly indurated and tectonically fractured basement of Tertiary mudstones and sandstones. As the edifice repeatedly grew beyond a critical stable height or profile, large-scale collapses were triggered by intrusions preceding magmatic activity, major eruptions, or significant regional tectonic fault movements. Clasts within debris-avalanche deposits were used as a series of windows into the composition of previous successive proto-Mt Taranaki edifices in order to examine magmatic controls on their failure. The diversity of lithologies and their geochemical characteristics are similar throughout the history of the volcano, with the oldest sample suites displaying a slightly broader range of compositions including more primitive rock types. The evolution to a narrower range and higher-silica compositions was accompanied by an increase in K2O. This shows that later melts progressively interacted with underplated amphibolitic material at the base of the crust. These gradual changes imply a long-term stability of the magmatic system. The preservation of similar internal conditions during the volcano’s evolution, hence suggests that external processes were the main driving force behind its cyclic growth and collapse behaviour and resulting sedimentation pattern.
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Looking beyond eruptions for an explanation of volcanic disasters : vulnerability in volcanic environmentsDibben, Christopher J. L. January 1999 (has links)
'Natural' disasters have traditionally been viewed as the result of an extreme physical environment. A radical backlash against this dominant view, in the nineteen seventies and eighties, moved the debate to the opposite extreme and in doing so replaced physical with social determinism. Vulnerability analysis is proposed as a methodology that bridges these extremes. It takes into account individual decision making, social milieu and physical hazard when describing human habitation in areas of volcanic activity. It is argued that vulnerability should be defined in terms of universal human needs in order to avoid it simply being a measure of the chance of death and injury or losing its meaning in the uncertainty of cultural relativism. Once vulnerability is identified it is important to explore why it has come to exist. A contextual theory of vulnerability change is presented. Vulnerability to volcanic activity was explored in the area around Mt. Etna in Sicily (Italy) and Furnas volcano San Miguel in the Azores (Portugal) using a case study methodology. This included: collecting data through interviews (semistructured and structured) and field surveying, utilising census and other secondary data sources, and examining historical documents and texts. The volcanic hazard on Mt. Etna is related to regular (4-7 years) effusive lava flows which threaten property and land rather than people. Living in a European state, it is likely that a victim of Mt. Etna will have their basic needs provided for in the long-term and therefore they are not vulnerable. In contrast the irregular explosive eruptions of Furnas, last eruption 1630, not only damage property and land but also endanger lives. The limited ability of individuals to protect themselves in the event of an eruption and organisations to aid them in this means that, in spite of state insurance, many around Furnas are vulnerable. The production of vulnerability around Etna and Furnas is strongly related to the socio-economic nature of the region and wider European and global contexts. Opportunities and constraints that exist across socio-physical space encourage behaviour and forms of life which, in tum, produce various levels of vulnerability. Individuals seem to cognitively diminish their perceptions of this threat within a context of social representations of low risk. They, and society as a whole, rarely seem to engage directly with the risk itself.
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Understanding aspects of andesitic dome-forming eruptions through the last 1000 yrs of volcanism at Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand : a dissertation presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New ZealandPlatz, Thomas January 2007 (has links)
Andesitic volcanoes are notorious for their rapid and unpredictable changes in eruptive style between and during volcanic events, a feature normally attributed to shallow crustal and intra-edifice magmatic processes. Using the example of eruptions during the last 1000 yrs at Mt. Taranaki (the Maero Eruptive Period), deposit sequences were studied to (1) understand lava dome formation and destruction, (2) interpret the causes of rapid shifts from extrusive to explosive eruption styles, and (3) to build a model of crustal magmatic processes that impact on eruption style. A new detailed reconstruction of this period identifies at least 10 eruptive episodes characterised by extrusive, lava dome- and lava flow-producing events and one sub- Plinian eruption. To achieve this, a new evaluation procedure was developed to purge glass datasets of contaminated mineral-glass analyses by using compositional diagrams of mineral incompatible-compatible elements. Along with careful examination of particle textures, this procedure can be broadly applied to build a higher degree of resolution in any tephrostratigraphic record. Geochemical contrasts show that the products of the latest Mt. Taranaki eruption, the remnant summit dome (Pyramid Dome) was not formed during the Tahurangi eruptive episode but extruded post-AD1755. Its inferred original maximum volume of 4.9×106 m3 (DRE) was formed by simultaneous endogenous and exogenous dome growth within days. Magma ascent and extrusion rates are estimated at =0.012 ms-1 and =6 m3s-1, respectively, based on hornblende textures. Some of the Maero-Period dome effusions were preceded by a vent-clearing phase producing layers of scattered lithic lapilli around the edifice [Newall Ash (a), Mangahume Lapilli, Pyramid Lapilli]. The type of dome failure controlled successive eruptive phases in most instances. The destruction of a pressurised dome either caused instantaneous but short-lived magmatic fragmentation (Newall and Puniho episodes), or triggered a directed blast-explosion (Newall episode), or initiated sustained magmatic fragmentation (Burrell Episode). The transition from dome effusion to a sustained, sub- Plinian eruption during the Burrell Lapilli (AD1655) episode was caused by unroofing a conduit of stalled magma, vertically segregated into three layers with different degrees of vesiculation and crystallisation. The resultant ejecta range from brown, grey and black coloured vesicular clasts to dense grey lithics. Bulk compositional variation of erupted clasts can be modelled by fractionation of hornblende, plagioclase, clinopyroxene, and Fe-Ti oxides. Pre-eruption magma ascent for the Maero Period events is assumed to begin at depths of c.9.5 km.
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Late quaternary lahars from Mount Ruapehu in the Whangaehu River, North Island, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosoophy in Soil Science at Massey UniversityHodgson, Katherine Anne January 1993 (has links)
The stratigraphic record of lahars in the Whangaehu River reveals that in the past 180,000 years this route has been one of the main conduits for lahars from Mount Ruapehu, the highest active andesitic stratovolcano in the Central North Island of New Zealand. Both debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows have engulfed surfaces up to 160 km distance from the Volcano. Eight episodes of laharic activity are recognized by the distinctive lithology and similar age of their deposits. The newly defined upper Pleistocene Whangaehu Formation provides evidence for the earliest lahar event in the Valley, c. 180,000- 140,000 years ago. There is only meagre evidence for laharic activity following this event until the Ohakean and Holocene, although two new informally named deposits - the Mangatipona pumice sand (c. 37,000 years B.P.) and Apitian lahars (c. 32,000-25,500 years B.P) - are recognized, of minor extent. The formerly defined late Quaternary Te Heuheu (c. 25,500- 14,700 years B.P.), Tangatu (c. 14,700-5,370 years B.P.), Manutahi (c. 5 ,370-3,4600 years B.P.), Mangaio (c. 4,600 years B.P.) and Onetapu (< c. 1,850 years B.P.) Formations are here described and interpreted. Triggering mechanisms for lahar deposits are distinguished based on lithological criteria. (a) Bouldery deposits in the Whangaehu Formation are interpreted to have been emplaced by a single highly competent debris flow triggered by a southerly-directed flank collapse at Mount Ruapehu. This debris flow was competent enough to transport boulders up to 2 m in diameter over 140 km from the Volcano. Bouldery deposits are also recognized in the Onetapu Formation, but are restricted to higher gradient surfaces on the Mount Ruapehu ring plain. The Onetapu Formation deposits are interpreted to have been emplaced by lahars resulting from catastrophic drainage of Crater Lake, which occupies the active crater on Mount Ruapehu. (b) Pebbly and sandy deposits are interpreted to have been emplaced by low competence debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows. These lahar deposits are recognized in all formations described. The lithology in these deposits is commonly pumice and they are interpreted to have been triggered by eruptions and/or high rainfall events at the Volcano. Formations, and individual members within Formations, were dated by radiocarbon dating of organic material found below, within or above lahar deposits, or by coverbed stratigraphy. Both rhyolitic and andesitic tephras provided recognizable time planes in the late Quaternary coverbeds overlying lahar deposits. In this study quantitative analysis of quartz abundance, which is shown to vary between loesses and palaeosols, is used as an indirect means of establishing a surrogate for past climate changes which have been correlated to the deep sea oxygen isotope curve. A minimum age for the newly defined Whangaehu Formation is established by this method. The accumulation rate for lahars in the Whangaehu River has accelerated from 1 km3 every c. 23,000 years in the past c. 160,000 years to 1 km3 in 589 years in the past c. 2,000 years. This acceleration probably results from the increased frequency of lahars in the River following the development of Crater Lake c. 2,000 years B.P. According to this pattern an estimated 0.17 km3 volume of lahars could be anticipated over the next 100 years. If the 2,000 year accumulation rate were to be met over the next 100 years there would be 170 lahars of l0[superscript]6 m3 in this time interval , or 17 lahars of 10[superscript]7 m3 (or 1.7 lahars of 10[superscript]8 m3). The largest reported volume for an historic lahar is 10[superscript]6 m3 and these have occurred on average once every 30 years. The accumulation rate for historic lahars is 0.0054 km3 in 100 years. Therefore, although the accumulation rate appears to have slowed down, further large lahars with magnitudes 10 or 100 times greater than those witnessed could be expected.
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Late quaternary lahars from Mount Ruapehu in the Whangaehu River, North Island, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosoophy in Soil Science at Massey UniversityHodgson, Katherine Anne January 1993 (has links)
The stratigraphic record of lahars in the Whangaehu River reveals that in the past 180,000 years this route has been one of the main conduits for lahars from Mount Ruapehu, the highest active andesitic stratovolcano in the Central North Island of New Zealand. Both debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows have engulfed surfaces up to 160 km distance from the Volcano. Eight episodes of laharic activity are recognized by the distinctive lithology and similar age of their deposits. The newly defined upper Pleistocene Whangaehu Formation provides evidence for the earliest lahar event in the Valley, c. 180,000- 140,000 years ago. There is only meagre evidence for laharic activity following this event until the Ohakean and Holocene, although two new informally named deposits - the Mangatipona pumice sand (c. 37,000 years B.P.) and Apitian lahars (c. 32,000-25,500 years B.P) - are recognized, of minor extent. The formerly defined late Quaternary Te Heuheu (c. 25,500- 14,700 years B.P.), Tangatu (c. 14,700-5,370 years B.P.), Manutahi (c. 5 ,370-3,4600 years B.P.), Mangaio (c. 4,600 years B.P.) and Onetapu (< c. 1,850 years B.P.) Formations are here described and interpreted. Triggering mechanisms for lahar deposits are distinguished based on lithological criteria. (a) Bouldery deposits in the Whangaehu Formation are interpreted to have been emplaced by a single highly competent debris flow triggered by a southerly-directed flank collapse at Mount Ruapehu. This debris flow was competent enough to transport boulders up to 2 m in diameter over 140 km from the Volcano. Bouldery deposits are also recognized in the Onetapu Formation, but are restricted to higher gradient surfaces on the Mount Ruapehu ring plain. The Onetapu Formation deposits are interpreted to have been emplaced by lahars resulting from catastrophic drainage of Crater Lake, which occupies the active crater on Mount Ruapehu. (b) Pebbly and sandy deposits are interpreted to have been emplaced by low competence debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows. These lahar deposits are recognized in all formations described. The lithology in these deposits is commonly pumice and they are interpreted to have been triggered by eruptions and/or high rainfall events at the Volcano. Formations, and individual members within Formations, were dated by radiocarbon dating of organic material found below, within or above lahar deposits, or by coverbed stratigraphy. Both rhyolitic and andesitic tephras provided recognizable time planes in the late Quaternary coverbeds overlying lahar deposits. In this study quantitative analysis of quartz abundance, which is shown to vary between loesses and palaeosols, is used as an indirect means of establishing a surrogate for past climate changes which have been correlated to the deep sea oxygen isotope curve. A minimum age for the newly defined Whangaehu Formation is established by this method. The accumulation rate for lahars in the Whangaehu River has accelerated from 1 km3 every c. 23,000 years in the past c. 160,000 years to 1 km3 in 589 years in the past c. 2,000 years. This acceleration probably results from the increased frequency of lahars in the River following the development of Crater Lake c. 2,000 years B.P. According to this pattern an estimated 0.17 km3 volume of lahars could be anticipated over the next 100 years. If the 2,000 year accumulation rate were to be met over the next 100 years there would be 170 lahars of l0[superscript]6 m3 in this time interval , or 17 lahars of 10[superscript]7 m3 (or 1.7 lahars of 10[superscript]8 m3). The largest reported volume for an historic lahar is 10[superscript]6 m3 and these have occurred on average once every 30 years. The accumulation rate for historic lahars is 0.0054 km3 in 100 years. Therefore, although the accumulation rate appears to have slowed down, further large lahars with magnitudes 10 or 100 times greater than those witnessed could be expected.
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