Heavy rains and El Nio phenomenon are recurring natural phenomena at a national level. These can cause floods due to the overflowing of rivers, which, when close to cities, can cause both human and material losses. The district of Catacaos, located in the city of Piura, was the one with the highest number of injuries due to the flood caused by El Nio phenomenon in 2017. This phenomenon causes a large amounts of rainfalls due to the presence of abnormally warm waters along the northern coast of Peru [1]. It is for this reason that the need arose to carry out an analysis of the physical vulnerability due to instability of people through static equilibrium, in said district, in order to present maps of unsafe areas in the face of this phenomenon. In this investigation, flood hazard maps are generated simulating the one presented in 2017, using 2D hydraulic modeling. For the generation of vulnerability curves, the instability analysis is performed by moment and drag force. Finally, maps with unsafe areas are made using ArcGis software. Where the results obtained indicate that 29.37% of the city was flooded. Likewise, the vulnerability maps generated show us that women and men over 18 years of age in the city of Catacaos would be vulnerable to dragging and overturning in the face of floods in 16.54% and 13.21%, respectively, of the total studied area. This information will be useful for the development of future evacuation plans during floods, carried out by national entities. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

The damage assessment caused by floods, earthquakes, hurricanes among others phenomenons in the world are analyzed with methodologies such as "Vulnerability curves". In Peru, disasters caused by hyperconcentrated flows are alarming due to a climatic variability such as the "El Nio Costero"phenomenon. Therefore, this research has developed vulnerability curves for 1 and 2-story confined masonry buildings in Urb. San Idelfonso, Ica - Peru; linking the variables: flow depth, associated with the event produced by heavy rains at the top of the "Quebrada Cansas"caused by the "El Nio Costero"phenomenon in 2017, and the percentage of the damage based on the methodology of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), whose formula is the repair value and total building value. The monetary amounts and items of the buildings are obtained from the RM 415-2017-VIVIENDA of the Ministry of Housing, Construction and Sanitation of Peru. The process consisted of hydrological modeling in HEC-HMS, hydraulic modeling in FLO-2D, damage percentage estimate and vulnerability curves production. Finally, the vulnerability curves for hyperconcentrated flows were contrasted with similar studies regarding curves for flooding and debris flow. The results of the investigation showed that the "El Nio Costero"phenomenon in 2017 had an economic impact of at least 1.3 million soles in Urb. San Idelfonso. In addition, at least 24 buildings had a complete damage and 21 buildings an extensive damage.

Les sols argileux peuvent présenter des variations importantes de volume lors d’un changement hydrique, tel une période de sécheresse. Ce phénomène de retrait-gonflement des sols argileux est à l’origine de nombreux préjudices aux bâtis ce qui le situe, après les inondations, au second rang des aléas naturels français en matière de coût des dommages : 5 milliard d’euros entre 1988 et 2007. Les maisons individuelles sont les plus touchées par ce phénomène qui provoque un tassement différentiel du bâti à l’origine de sa dégradation (fissures dans les éléments de maçonnerie non armée en particulier). L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier la vulnérabilité des bâtis vis-à-vis de l’aléa retrait-gonflement à travers une analyse de l’interaction sol-structure. Ce travail s’est porté sur les trois grands volets suivants : 1 - le comportement hydromécanique des sols argileux, 2 - l’interaction sol-structure, 3 - l’évaluation des dommages structuraux. Le comportement hydromécanique des sols argileux a été modélisé par le concept de surface d’état et intégré dans un modèle d’interaction sol-structure inspiré du modèle de Winkler, avec des approches de plus en plus complexes : cas unidimensionnel tout d’abord, 2D ensuite en assimilant la structure à une poutre, puis en 3D en représentant la structure par une plaque. Ces modèles d’interaction sol-structure permettent de calculer la déflexion relative d’un bâti, en fonction d’une valeur de succion imposée et des propriétés mécaniques ou hydromécaniques de la structure et du sol d’assise. La déflexion relative du bâti est alors comparée à des valeurs seuils afin d’évaluer le dommage.La dernière partie de cette thèse consiste en une étude de faisabilité pour le développement de courbes de vulnérabilités adaptées à la problématique du retrait gonflement. Ces courbes représentent la moyenne des dommages d’un type de bâti conçu sur un type de sol gonflant pour une valeur de succion imposée. Ces courbes ont été développées à partir d’une typologie des sols gonflants et d’une typologie des bâtis issue des bases de données des maisons sinistrées. La moyenne des dommages est calculée par la méthode de Monte-Carlo, en prenant en compte la variabilité des paramètres du bâti. / Clayey soils can present large volumetric deformations in response of water content change. This phenomenon of shrinkage and swelling of clayey soils is recognized as a costly natural hazard throughout the world. In France, this cost is reported between 1988 and 2007 to 5 million Euros, ranking in second class of the French natural hazards in terms of cost of damage after the floods. The individual masonry buildings with shallow foundations are the most affected by this phenomenon that causes a differential settlement of the building leading to cracks in facades and structural elements, especially in unreinforced masonry elements.The objective of this thesis was to study the vulnerability of the building, against the shrink-swell hazard through an analysis of soil-structure interaction. This work was focused on three major points: - Hydro-mechanical behavior of clay soils - Soil-structure interaction - Evaluation of structural damage.The hydro-mechanical behavior of clay soils was considered by the concept of state surface and integrated into a soil-structure interaction model, based on the Winkler model, with increasingly complex approaches: 1D, 2D and 3D by modeling the building behavior respectively by a spring system, the beam element and the plate element. These models of soil-structure interaction are able to calculate the relative deflection of the building, according to the values of imposed suction, mechanical properties of the structure and hydro-mechanical properties of the soil. The relative deflection of the building is then compared to threshold values of the classical damage categories to assess the building damage.Finally a feasibility study was conducted on the development of vulnerability curves adapted to the problem of shrinkage – swelling of clayey soils. These curves represent the average of structural damage versus suction, for each type of building. These curves were developed based on a classification of expansive soils and a building typology outcome from databases of affected buildings. The average damage is calculated by the Monte-Carlo method, taking into account the variability of the building parameters.

La evaluación de daños de inundaciones, sismos, huracanes entre otros fenómenos en el mundo son analizados con metodologías como las curvas de vulnerabilidad. En el Perú, los desastres originados por flujos hiperconcentrados aún son alarmantes debido al cambio climático e incremento de la intensidad de fenómenos como el niño costero (FENC). Por ello, la presente tesis desarrolla curvas de vulnerabilidad para viviendas de albañilería confinada de 1 y 2 pisos de la Urb. San Idelfonso en Ica, relacionando la variable: profundidad de flujo, asociado al evento producido por las lluvias intensas en la cabecera de la quebrada Cansas que desencadenó el FENC 2017, y el porcentaje de daño: basado en la metodología del Cuerpo de Ingenieros de Estados Unidos (USACE), cuya formulación es la relación entre el valor de reparación entre valor total de la vivienda. Los importes monetarios y partidas de la vivienda fueron obtenidos de la resolución ministerial RM 415-2017-VIVIENDA. El proceso consiste en el modelamiento hidrológico en HEC-HMS, hidráulico en FLO-2D, estimación del porcentaje de daño y generación de las curvas de vulnerabilidad. Se han contrastado las curvas de vulnerabilidad para flujos hiperconcentrados (lodos) con investigaciones de curvas generadas para inundaciones y flujo de detritos. Los resultados demuestran que el evento del 2017 tuvo una afectación económica de al menos 1.3 millones de soles. Finalmente se generaron mapas de daños para los TR de 10, 20, 50, 100, 150 y 200 años y se calcularon los importes monetarios de reparación por vivienda en la Urb. San Idelfonso. / The damage assessment from floods, earthquakes, hurricanes among other phenomena in the world are analyzed with methodologies such as vulnerability curves. In Peru, disasters caused by hyper-concentrated flows (muds) are alarming due climate change and the increased intensity of phenomena such as “El Niño Costero (FENC)”. Therefore, the present thesis develops vulnerability curves for 1 and 2 story confined masonry buildings of the Urb. San Idelfonso – Ica, relating the variable: flow depth, associated with the event produced by the heavy rains at the head of “Quebrada Cansas” caused by FENC 2017 and the percentage damage: based on the methodology of the United States Corps of Engineers (USACE), whose formulation is the repair value between total building value. The monetary amounts and items of the building are obtained from the RM 415-2017-VIVIENDA. The process consists of hydrological modeling in HEC-HMS, hydraulic modeling in FLO-2D, estimation of the percentage of damage and generation of vulnerability curves. Vulnerability curves for hyper-concentrated flows (muds) have been contrasted with investigations of curves generated for floods and debris flow. The results show that the 2017 event had an economic impact of at least 1.3 million soles. Finally, damage maps were generated for the TR of 10, 20, 50, 100, 150 and 200 years and the monetary amounts for building repair in Urb. San Idelfonso were calculated. / Tesis

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