Climate change and increasing water demands prioritize the need to implement planning strategies for urban water security in the long and medium term. However, risk planning requires robust and timely financial support during and after the disaster. Therefore, risk transfer tools, such as insurance, have emerged as an effective strategy to ensure financial resilience and as an element that could encourage the implementation of hydrological risk reduction mechanisms. Among the main insurance design problems are the lack of information on the real drought impacts and climate uncertainty, which may incur adverse selection and/or moral hazards among the most common drawbacks in insurance practice. Currently, most of the income from water utility companies is based on water resources management, therefore during prolonged drought periods these economies can be strongly affected, despite having robust storage schemes as support. Thus, this thesis proposes an insurance plan for the water utility company of the State of Sao Paulo (SABESP) to deal with revenue reductions during long drought periods. The methodology is implemented on the MTRH-SHS model, developed under ex-ante damage cost calculation through the risk-based approach. The synthetic (\'what-if\') approach uses a \"set of change drivers\" to estimate the optimal premium through a multiyear insurance contract (MYI). The methodology integrates the hydrological simulation procedures under radiative climate forcing scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, from the regional climate model outputs Eta-HadGEM and Eta-MIROC5, with time horizons of 2007-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099, linked to the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) hydrologic model and under stationary and non-stationary water supply demand assumptions. The model framework is applied to the Cantareira Water Supply System for the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, Brazil, with severe vulnerability to droughts. As a result, the evaluated indexes showed that multi-year contracts with drought coverage higher than 240 days offer better financial performance than contracts with wider coverages. Moreover, this MYI adopted in the installed storage residual risk generates both a higher level of solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and annual average premiums closer to the expected revenue reductions by scenario. Finally, the approach can help the systematic evaluation of moral hazards and adverse selection. In the first case, the progressive evaluation must generate useful information to change or maintain the behavior of both the insured and insurers considering future risks related to climate change. In the second case, the multi-scenario valuation can help the insurer to set price thresholds, offering risk differential cover options in the premium value. / As mudanças climáticas e o incremento na demanda de água priorizam a necessidade de implementar estratégias de planejamento para a segurança hídrica urbana no longo e mediano prazo. No entanto, o planejamento dos riscos exige um suporte financeiro robusto e oportuno durante e após do desastre. Portanto, as ferramentas de transferência de risco, como os seguros, emergem como uma estratégia efetiva para garantir a resiliência financeira e como um elemento que poderia incentivar a implementação de mecanismos de redução do risco hidrológico. Entre os principais problemas no planejamento de seguros, estão a falta de informações sobre os impactos reais das secas e a incerteza climática, que podem levar a seleção adversa e/ou perigo moral como as problemáticas mais comuns na prática dos seguros. Atualmente, a maior parte da renda das empresas de serviços de água é baseada na gestão do recurso hídrico; portanto, durante períodos prolongados de seca, essas economias podem ser fortemente afetadas, apesar de ter sistemas de armazenamento robustos como suporte. Assim, esta tese propõe um plano de seguro para a empresa de serviços de água do Estado de São Paulo (SABESP), para enfrentar as reduções de receita durante longos períodos de seca. A metodologia é implementada no modelo MTRH-SHS, desenvolvido no cálculo \"ex-ante\" de custos de dano, através da abordagem baseada em risco. A abordagem sintética (\"what-if\"), usa um \"conjunto de drivers de mudança\" para estimar o prêmio ótimo através de um contrato de seguro plurianual (SPA). A metodologia integra os procedimentos de simulação hidrológica, sob cenários de forçamento climático radiativo RCP 4.5 e 8.5, do modelo de clima regional Eta-HadGEM e Eta-MIROC5, com horizontes temporais de 2007-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2099, vinculados ao modelo hidrológico do sistema de avaliação e planejamento da água (WEAP) e sob pressupostos de demanda como abastecimento de água estacionária e não estacionária. A estrutura do modelo é aplicada ao Sistema de Abastecimento de Água de Cantareira na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil, região com alta vulnerabilidade às secas. Como resultado, os índices de rendimento do seguro avaliados mostraram que os contratos plurianuais com cobertura para secas superiores a 240 dias, oferecem melhor desempenho financeiro do que os contratos com coberturas mais amplas. Além, o SPA adotado para o risco residual do armazenamento instalado, gera um nível mais alto de solvência para o fundo de seguros no longo prazo com prêmios médios anuais mais próximos das reduções de receita esperadas por cenário. Finalmente, a abordagem pode ajudar na avaliação sistemática do risco moral e na seleção adversa. No primeiro caso, a avaliação progressiva deve gerar informações úteis para mudar ou manter o comportamento de segurados e seguradoras considerando riscos futuros relacionados à mudança climática. No segundo caso, a valoração de múltiplos cenários pode ajudar a estabelecer limiares de preços, oferecendo opções de cobertura diferencial de risco no valor prêmio de seguro.

Diante da escassez hídrica na vivida na Região metropolitana de São Paulo e com tantas incertezas climáticas, as ações dos gestores da água na RMSP ficam em evidência e mais do que nunca surge a necessidade de se discutir sobre e os conceitos de governança da água e segurança hídrica na RMSP. Esse estudo analisou com a ajuda do programa DSCSoft software diversos discursos de atores envolvidos com o tema da água na RMSP, o software ajudou a separar os discursos dos indivíduos e a construir um Discurso do sujeito Coletivo (DSC). O DSC considera o discurso de um ator o representante do pensamento e somado a outros sujeitos, representa também o coletivo. O objetivo foi identificar quais as percepções individuais, mas também pensamentos e ações coletivas dos diferentes atores sociais envolvidos na gestão ou militância da água na RMSP. Os resultados desse estudo mostraram a existência de dois grupos: Técnico- Capitalista (com pensamentos mais técnicos e voltados ao lucro) e o Eco-Social (com pensamentos voltados a preservação do meio ambiente e a agua como um direito). Foi identificado nesses grupos as diferentes visões sobre o recurso água e também as diferentes ideais sobre qual seria um modelo adequado da gestão e segurança hídrica. Analisando esses discursos, foi possível realizar uma reflexão e uma discussão sobre os conflitos existentes para que haja de fato a governança da água. Esses discursos foram cedidos pelo grupo de pesquisa da USP participante do projeto Bluegrass - As lutas pelo ouro azul que entrevistou diversos atores importantes envolvidos com o tema da água na RMSP e Litoral Norte de SP. O projeto Bluegrass foi financiado pela FAPESP e tem parceria com México, Peru e Estados Unidos e o centro de pesquisa CIRAD na França / Faced with the water shortage in the metropolitan region of São Paulo and with so many climatic uncertainties, the actions of water managers in the RMSP are evident and more than ever, there is a need to discuss the concepts of water and safety governance In the RMSP. This study analyzed with the help of the \"DSCSoft\" software program various speeches from actors involved with the theme of water in the RMSP, the software helped to separate the speeches of individuals and to construct a Collective Subject Discourse (DSC). The DSC considers the speech of an actor the representative of thought and added to other subjects, also represents the collective. The objective was to identify the individual perceptions, but also collective thoughts and actions of the different social actors involved in the management or militancy of the water in the RMSP. The results of this study showed the existence of two groups: Technical-Capitalist (with more technical and profit-oriented thoughts) and Eco-Social (with thoughts focused on preserving the environment and water as a right). The different views on the water resource were identified in these groups and also the different ideals on which would be an appropriate model of water safety and management. Analyzing these discourses, it was possible to make a reflection and a discussion about the existing conflicts so that there is indeed water governance. These speeches were given by the USP research group participating in the project \"Bluegrass - The Blue Gold Fights\" that interviewed several important actors involved with the theme of water in the SPM and North Coast of SP. The Bluegrass project was funded by FAPESP and has partnership with Mexico, Peru and the United States and the CIRAD research center in France.

Diante da escassez hídrica na vivida na Região metropolitana de São Paulo e com tantas incertezas climáticas, as ações dos gestores da água na RMSP ficam em evidência e mais do que nunca surge a necessidade de se discutir sobre e os conceitos de governança da água e segurança hídrica na RMSP. Esse estudo analisou com a ajuda do programa DSCSoft software diversos discursos de atores envolvidos com o tema da água na RMSP, o software ajudou a separar os discursos dos indivíduos e a construir um Discurso do sujeito Coletivo (DSC). O DSC considera o discurso de um ator o representante do pensamento e somado a outros sujeitos, representa também o coletivo. O objetivo foi identificar quais as percepções individuais, mas também pensamentos e ações coletivas dos diferentes atores sociais envolvidos na gestão ou militância da água na RMSP. Os resultados desse estudo mostraram a existência de dois grupos: Técnico- Capitalista (com pensamentos mais técnicos e voltados ao lucro) e o Eco-Social (com pensamentos voltados a preservação do meio ambiente e a agua como um direito). Foi identificado nesses grupos as diferentes visões sobre o recurso água e também as diferentes ideais sobre qual seria um modelo adequado da gestão e segurança hídrica. Analisando esses discursos, foi possível realizar uma reflexão e uma discussão sobre os conflitos existentes para que haja de fato a governança da água. Esses discursos foram cedidos pelo grupo de pesquisa da USP participante do projeto Bluegrass - As lutas pelo ouro azul que entrevistou diversos atores importantes envolvidos com o tema da água na RMSP e Litoral Norte de SP. O projeto Bluegrass foi financiado pela FAPESP e tem parceria com México, Peru e Estados Unidos e o centro de pesquisa CIRAD na França / Faced with the water shortage in the metropolitan region of São Paulo and with so many climatic uncertainties, the actions of water managers in the RMSP are evident and more than ever, there is a need to discuss the concepts of water and safety governance In the RMSP. This study analyzed with the help of the \"DSCSoft\" software program various speeches from actors involved with the theme of water in the RMSP, the software helped to separate the speeches of individuals and to construct a Collective Subject Discourse (DSC). The DSC considers the speech of an actor the representative of thought and added to other subjects, also represents the collective. The objective was to identify the individual perceptions, but also collective thoughts and actions of the different social actors involved in the management or militancy of the water in the RMSP. The results of this study showed the existence of two groups: Technical-Capitalist (with more technical and profit-oriented thoughts) and Eco-Social (with thoughts focused on preserving the environment and water as a right). The different views on the water resource were identified in these groups and also the different ideals on which would be an appropriate model of water safety and management. Analyzing these discourses, it was possible to make a reflection and a discussion about the existing conflicts so that there is indeed water governance. These speeches were given by the USP research group participating in the project \"Bluegrass - The Blue Gold Fights\" that interviewed several important actors involved with the theme of water in the SPM and North Coast of SP. The Bluegrass project was funded by FAPESP and has partnership with Mexico, Peru and the United States and the CIRAD research center in France.

Research focus: This paper asks to what extent the European Union (EU) can influence as an external actor Turkey’s integrated water management policy. In particular this paper focuses on the case example of the water conflict arising over the usage of the transboundary Euphrates-Tigris river basin and what extent the EU can bring to bear its influence on Turkey to bring a resolution to the management of this river basin. Method: This paper consists of a comparative literature review of recent journals, academic articles, official publications and website content as well as respected news website material. The research method used consisted of an analysis assessing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the EU’s influence on Turkey’s water policy. Whilst this analysis tool is fairly straight forward to apply to assessing the EU’s influence on Turkey’s broad national water management policy, assessing how the EU can encourage Turkey to cooperate further on the International river basin of the Euphrates-Tigris is far more difficult, owing to the controversy and importance of the river to all three Countries sharing it; Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Findings: Through using a comparison of literature this paper has found that the main strength of the EU’s influence on Turkey’s integrated water management policy is through the very definite obligations Turkey must fulfil under the WFD as a candidate member for the EU. Secondly, this paper submits that the EU’s strong river management experience through large river cooperation projects, for example that of the Danube river basin, further enhances the ability of the EU’s credibility in its influence. The weakness the EU’s influence faces is the difficulty associated with Turkeys candidacy process to the EU which if hampered could quickly reduce the EU’s influence on Turkey. Opportunities for cooperation on the Euphrates–Tigris are also looked at positively in this paper especially in the light of a new Middle Eastern politics even though considerable uncertainty remains as to the full outcome. Lastly a threat that could face the EU’s influence is the results that a third way relationship between the EU and Turkey could have on limiting the EU’s influence with regard to integrated water policies. The main conclusion: This paper has concluded that the EU’s influence through the WFD is very strong on Turkey’s water policy, owing largely to Turkeys desire to obtain eventual full membership of the EU. Should the candidacy process fail, this could have a quick and damaging impact on the EU’s influence. This paper has also found that the EU has a strong potential influence in pushing Turkey towards further cooperation on the Euphrates-Tigris, however Turkey’s progress has to date been slow and remains a major challenge.   This paper recommends that Turkey uses the Ministry for Foreign Affairs to open up dialogue with lower riparian river states towards cooperation, that the EU suggest setting up a ‘commission’ as a means of achieving improved transboundary river cooperation and the need for a research network or center to bring together efforts towards cooperation on the Euphrates-Tigris river basin.

Submitted by Paulo Henrique Pereira Pinto null (paulogeographer@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-11-14T01:36:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 pinto_php_dr_rcla.pdf: 39503405 bytes, checksum: a6ca5bebc1a5cc606e7c8e45a389b1a1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by LUIZA DE MENEZES ROMANETTO (luizamenezes@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2017-11-20T14:00:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 pinto_php_dr_rcla.pdf: 39503405 bytes, checksum: a6ca5bebc1a5cc606e7c8e45a389b1a1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-20T14:00:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 pinto_php_dr_rcla.pdf: 39503405 bytes, checksum: a6ca5bebc1a5cc606e7c8e45a389b1a1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-11-07 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A região sudeste do Estado do Tocantins apresenta longos períodos de ausência de chuva com variabilidade significativa do início ao término da estação chuvosa (outubro a abril). Durante esses períodos, são verificados inúmeros transtornos à população rural desta área, principalmente no que se refere ao abastecimento para consumo e produção da agricultura familiar. Diante dessa situação, o governo do Estado implantou projetos para mitigar os efeitos da falta d’água na região. Entretanto, devido aos critérios de aplicação, os projetos não apresentaram resultados satisfatórios. Nesse sentido, esta pesquisa pretende fornecer subsídios ao planejamento e à gestão da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Palma, a partir de uma proposta metodológica que aborda de forma sistêmica os processos físico-naturais e a dinâmica climática, assim como aspectos sociais, que podem ter relação com o fenômeno. A abordagem metodológica desta pesquisa foi realizada em três etapas: na primeira, foi realizada uma adaptação da Análise Empírica da Fragilidade Ambiental, que consiste na síntese do estudo das fragilidades ambientais com base em características do relevo, solo, cobertura vegetal e da pluviosidade. Algumas das principais características da bacia hidrográfica foram averiguadas por meio da análise morfométrica, assim como dados relacionados à morfologia, pedologia, geologia e vegetação. Na segunda etapa buscou-se conhecer os aspectos da Gênese e Dinâmica climática regional e local. Para tanto, foi realizada a análise dos tipos de tempo e da participação dos sistemas atmosféricos, a qual consiste na identificação das massas de ar geradoras de chuvas e da sucessão habitual e excepcional dos estados atmosféricos em uma determinada área. Para isso, foram utilizados dados meteorológicos do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e hidrológicos da Agência Nacional de Águas. A terceira etapa consistiu na identificação da Vulnerabilidade Social da população da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Palma por meio da aplicação do Índice de Vulnerabilidade Social (IVS). Por fim, produziu-se uma análise integrada entre a fragilidade ambiental e a vulnerabilidade social. A realização de estudos como este no Estado do Tocantins é de grande relevância, principalmente devido à sua contribuição para o direcionamento de novas abordagens, sobretudo em face do contexto de fronteira agrícola vivenciado pelo Estado, tanto por motivos ambientais quanto econômicos e sociais. / The Southeast region of Tocantins State presents large periods of lack of rain, and demonstrates significant variability over all the rainy season (from October to April). Through these periods, are noticed innumerous problems to the rural population of this area, mainly concerning to the rural supply of water to consumption and to familiar agriculture production. In this context, Tocantins State has implemented projects to mitigate the water scarcity effects in that region. Nevertheless, due to the criteria of application, these projects have not presented satisfactory results. In this regard, this research aims to provide subsides to the planning and to the management of the Rio Palma hydrographic basin, from a methodological approach that considers, in a systemic way, the physical-natural processes and the climatic dynamic, as well social aspects that may be related to the phenomenon. The methodological approach of this research had been carried out in three steps: first, it was made an adaptation of the Empirical Analysis of Environmental Fragility, that consists in the synthesis of the environmental fragility studies based on relief, soil, vegetal cover and pluviosity characteristics. Some of the main characteristics of the hydrographical basin had been verified through the morphometric analysis, as well by dates related to the morphology, pedology, geology and vegetation. In the second step, had been researched aspects related to the regional and local climatic Genesis and Dynamic. In order to do this, had been executed the analysis of two types of weather and the role of the participation of atmospheric systems, that consists in the identification of air masses that generate rain, and the usual and exceptional succession of atmospheric states in a given area. To proceed to this, had been considered meteorological dates from the National Institute of Meteorology, and hydrological dates obtained by the Water National Agency. The third step was composed by the identification of the Social Vulnerability of the population of the Rio Palma hydrographical basin through the application of Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Finally, it was conducted an analysis between the environmental fragility and the social vulnerability. The realization of studies like this one in the Tocantins State is quite relevant, mainly due to his contribution to the targeting of new approaches, chiefly considering the current context of agrarian boundary experienced by the State, for environmental as well economic and social reasons.

Esta pesquisa propÃe um modelo institucional para seguranÃa de Ãgua em bacias hidrogrÃficas, inspirado no Plano de SeguranÃa de Ãgua para Abastecimento Humano (PSA), de Portugal. O modelo consiste de duas etapas: o diagnÃstico das fontes poluidoras e a elaboraÃÃo de uma Matriz Institucional, relacionando, para cada fonte de poluiÃÃo, o seu agente gerador, a sua classe, o agente fiscalizador e o regulador, e a identificaÃÃo da obrigatoriedade, ou nÃo, da licenÃa ambiental e da outorga. Aplicou-se o modelo proposto na bacia hidrogrÃfica do aÃude Acarape do Meio, no Estado do CearÃ, onde foram identificadas e classificadas as fontes de poluiÃÃo, a sua localizaÃÃo geogrÃfica em relaÃÃo Ãs Ãreas de preservaÃÃo permanente, de influÃncia direta e indireta, e a Ãrea complementar da bacia (ABC). ApÃs a sistematizaÃÃo, observou-se que a maioria dos 82 pontos, potencialmente geradores da poluiÃÃo, està situada a montante e/ou entorno do AÃude. A Ãrea que apresentou mais fontes de poluiÃÃo foi a ACB. Fontes pontuais sÃo predominantes na Bacia o que pode facilitar o monitoramento e o controle. Percebeu-se, ainda, com base na Matriz Institucional, que os principais agentes geradores da poluiÃÃo sÃo a concessionÃria CAGECE (com lanÃamento contÃnuo de efluentes provenientes das estaÃÃes de tratamento de Ãgua e esgoto) e as prefeituras municipais (matadouros, serviÃos de saÃde, resÃduos sÃlidos, dentre outros). O principal agente fiscalizador, de acordo com a legislaÃÃo, à o ÃrgÃo ambiental SEMACE. Fica evidenciada a importÃncia da interaÃÃo do plano de seguranÃa de Ãgua em bacias hidrogrÃficas com os demais planos setoriais â Plano de Saneamento BÃsico Nacional, Regional e Local, o Plano Diretor Municipal, Plano Local de HabitaÃÃo de Interesse Social, Plano de Recursos HÃdricos, Plano de Bacia HidrogrÃfica, Plano Ambiental Municipal, dentre outros. O Modelo Institucional desenvolvido nesta pesquisa pode ser um importante instrumento da gestÃo de qualidade de Ãgua em bacias hidrogrÃficas. / This research proposes an institutional framework for water security in watersheds, inspired by the Water Safety Plan for Human Supply (PSA) in Portugal. The model consists of two stages: the diagnosis of polluting sources and the development of an institutional matrix, relating to each source of pollution, its generating agent in its class, the supervisory agent and the regulator, and the identification of the requirement, or not, the environmental license and the grant. We used the model proposed in the watershed of Acarape the Middle dam in the state of CearÃ, where they were identified and classified sources of pollution, its geographical location in relation to the areas of permanent preservation, direct and indirect influence, and additional basin area (ABC). After systematization, it was observed that most of the 82 points, potentially generating pollution, is located upstream and / or around the weir. The area had more sources of pollution was the ACB. Point sources are prevalent in the basin which can facilitate monitoring and control. It was noted, though, based on Institutional Matrix, the main generating agents of pollution are CAGECE dealership (with continuous discharge of effluents from the treatment plants water and sewage) and municipalities (slaughterhouses, health services, solid waste, among others). The main supervisory agent, according to legislation, is the environmental agency SEMACE. It highlighted the importance of the interaction of water safety plan in river basins with other sectoral plans - National Plan of Basic Sanitation, Regional and Local, Municipal Master Plan, Local Plan of Social Housing, Water Resources Plan, Plan Watershed, Municipal Environmental Plan, among others. The institutional model developed in this research can be an important instrument of quality management of water in river basins.

Climate change and increasing water demands prioritize the need to implement planning strategies for urban water security in the long and medium term. However, risk planning requires robust and timely financial support during and after the disaster. Therefore, risk transfer tools, such as insurance, have emerged as an effective strategy to ensure financial resilience and as an element that could encourage the implementation of hydrological risk reduction mechanisms. Among the main insurance design problems are the lack of information on the real drought impacts and climate uncertainty, which may incur adverse selection and/or moral hazards among the most common drawbacks in insurance practice. Currently, most of the income from water utility companies is based on water resources management, therefore during prolonged drought periods these economies can be strongly affected, despite having robust storage schemes as support. Thus, this thesis proposes an insurance plan for the water utility company of the State of Sao Paulo (SABESP) to deal with revenue reductions during long drought periods. The methodology is implemented on the MTRH-SHS model, developed under ex-ante damage cost calculation through the risk-based approach. The synthetic (\'what-if\') approach uses a \"set of change drivers\" to estimate the optimal premium through a multiyear insurance contract (MYI). The methodology integrates the hydrological simulation procedures under radiative climate forcing scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, from the regional climate model outputs Eta-HadGEM and Eta-MIROC5, with time horizons of 2007-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099, linked to the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) hydrologic model and under stationary and non-stationary water supply demand assumptions. The model framework is applied to the Cantareira Water Supply System for the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, Brazil, with severe vulnerability to droughts. As a result, the evaluated indexes showed that multi-year contracts with drought coverage higher than 240 days offer better financial performance than contracts with wider coverages. Moreover, this MYI adopted in the installed storage residual risk generates both a higher level of solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and annual average premiums closer to the expected revenue reductions by scenario. Finally, the approach can help the systematic evaluation of moral hazards and adverse selection. In the first case, the progressive evaluation must generate useful information to change or maintain the behavior of both the insured and insurers considering future risks related to climate change. In the second case, the multi-scenario valuation can help the insurer to set price thresholds, offering risk differential cover options in the premium value. / As mudanças climáticas e o incremento na demanda de água priorizam a necessidade de implementar estratégias de planejamento para a segurança hídrica urbana no longo e mediano prazo. No entanto, o planejamento dos riscos exige um suporte financeiro robusto e oportuno durante e após do desastre. Portanto, as ferramentas de transferência de risco, como os seguros, emergem como uma estratégia efetiva para garantir a resiliência financeira e como um elemento que poderia incentivar a implementação de mecanismos de redução do risco hidrológico. Entre os principais problemas no planejamento de seguros, estão a falta de informações sobre os impactos reais das secas e a incerteza climática, que podem levar a seleção adversa e/ou perigo moral como as problemáticas mais comuns na prática dos seguros. Atualmente, a maior parte da renda das empresas de serviços de água é baseada na gestão do recurso hídrico; portanto, durante períodos prolongados de seca, essas economias podem ser fortemente afetadas, apesar de ter sistemas de armazenamento robustos como suporte. Assim, esta tese propõe um plano de seguro para a empresa de serviços de água do Estado de São Paulo (SABESP), para enfrentar as reduções de receita durante longos períodos de seca. A metodologia é implementada no modelo MTRH-SHS, desenvolvido no cálculo \"ex-ante\" de custos de dano, através da abordagem baseada em risco. A abordagem sintética (\"what-if\"), usa um \"conjunto de drivers de mudança\" para estimar o prêmio ótimo através de um contrato de seguro plurianual (SPA). A metodologia integra os procedimentos de simulação hidrológica, sob cenários de forçamento climático radiativo RCP 4.5 e 8.5, do modelo de clima regional Eta-HadGEM e Eta-MIROC5, com horizontes temporais de 2007-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2099, vinculados ao modelo hidrológico do sistema de avaliação e planejamento da água (WEAP) e sob pressupostos de demanda como abastecimento de água estacionária e não estacionária. A estrutura do modelo é aplicada ao Sistema de Abastecimento de Água de Cantareira na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil, região com alta vulnerabilidade às secas. Como resultado, os índices de rendimento do seguro avaliados mostraram que os contratos plurianuais com cobertura para secas superiores a 240 dias, oferecem melhor desempenho financeiro do que os contratos com coberturas mais amplas. Além, o SPA adotado para o risco residual do armazenamento instalado, gera um nível mais alto de solvência para o fundo de seguros no longo prazo com prêmios médios anuais mais próximos das reduções de receita esperadas por cenário. Finalmente, a abordagem pode ajudar na avaliação sistemática do risco moral e na seleção adversa. No primeiro caso, a avaliação progressiva deve gerar informações úteis para mudar ou manter o comportamento de segurados e seguradoras considerando riscos futuros relacionados à mudança climática. No segundo caso, a valoração de múltiplos cenários pode ajudar a estabelecer limiares de preços, oferecendo opções de cobertura diferencial de risco no valor prêmio de seguro.

Large dams represent complex social-ecological systems, perhaps the most complicated projects among large infrastructures. Nowadays, developing and developed countries consider large dams as a viable solution to provide low-cost energy production and flood control for agriculture production. However, the debate about dams is generally focused on technical arrangements, lacking of a holistic perspective of analysis, while their effects may be disruptive for a wider number of factors. The present paper proposes to study large dams within the theory of common-pool resources, focusing on the relation between water security and sustainability. The use of a social-ecological framework facilitates a dynamic analysis among different variables of large dams. What is more, it permits a cross-scale analysis, enabling one to understand the extreme complexity of social-ecological changes in a considered system. This research will focus on the Ethiopian large dam Gibe III, predicted to start functioning at the end of this year. It is already altering the downstream conditions of Omo River and Lake Turkana, shared by Ethiopia and Kenya, posing a threat to the livelihoods of thousand people. However, the current discussion about it still appears limited to technical solutions to the dam implementation. Arguing the opposite, the social-ecological framework enables one to include information sharing, climate change and collective-choice rules as important elements to be considered to bring the discussion at a broader level of understanding. From the analysis of Ethiopia, it is found that large dams cannot alone be the answer to water security if they are not connected to more vast social-economic reforms. The paper argues that the interpretation of large dams must be considered as part of the broader social, ecological and politico-economic situation, transcending from the mere local situation. The overall picture is not whether not to build them or not, as there is not a real choice, but how to foster instruments of analysis that preserve the environment and societies, while defeating poverty.

This study examines the barriers to sustainable water resources management in water vulnerable, yet a mining booming area. The case study is conducted in Omnogovi province of Mongolia in Nov-Dec 2016. This study presents how the Omnogovi province manages its water with increased mining and examines what hinders the province from practicing sustainable water resources management and examines the involvement of residents in the water resources management of Omnogovi province. Qualitative approaches such as semi-structured interviews, participatory observation and literature review were used in this study. This study demonstrates that the water resources management of Omnogovi province is unsustainable in this time period, yet the implementation of IWRM approach has improved the water resources management of the province. The barriers to sustainable water resources management in Omnogovi province are inefficient governance and poor enforcement of law, today. Despite it, data-scarcity and transboundary water issues might become barriers to practice efficient water resources management in the province. The involvement of residents in water resources management of Omnogovi province is deficient, yet the implementation of participatory approach and establishment of RBC might improve the participatory governance. The study shows IWRM can improve the water resources management of a developing country, yet it can be time-consuming, costly and challenging to implement in a country, which is still in socio-economic and political transition.

The water-energy-food nexus approach, where closely-connected water, energy and food sectors and their interlinkages are considered together, can be useful to fully understand and address impediments to these sectors’ security and their sustainable development. This study is a review of the current status of the water-energy-food nexus in India, main interlinkages and main challenges to the sustainable development of the nexus. One of the main interlinkages is irrigation in the water-food connection, as the majority of water withdrawn in India is used for agriculture. The water-energy interlinkages are crucial not only in the context of hydropower generation, but also due to the large amounts of water being used for cooling of fossil fuel and nuclear power plants. The pressure on water resources is exacerbated by rainfall reductions in India caused by climate change. Social and economic factors, such as population growth, change in food habits, economic growth and technological advances, further increase the demand for water, energy and food. This all poses significant challenges related to water availability and, as a result, water, food and energy security in India.