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Uncertainty in life cycle costing for long-range infrastructure. Part I: leveling the playing field to address uncertaintiesScope, Christoph, Ilg, Patrick, Muench, Stefan, Guenther, Edeltraud 25 August 2021 (has links)
Purpose
Life cycle costing (LCC) is a state-of-the-art method to analyze investment decisions in infrastructure projects. However, uncertainties inherent in long-term planning question the credibility of LCC results. Previous research has not systematically linked sources and methods to address this uncertainty. Part I of this series develops a framework to collect and categorize different sources of uncertainty and addressing methods. This systematization is a prerequisite to further analyze the suitability of methods and levels the playing field for part II.
Methods
Past reviews have dealt with selected issues of uncertainty in LCC. However, none has systematically collected uncertainties and linked methods to address them. No comprehensive categorization has been published to date. Part I addresses these two research gaps by conducting a systematic literature review. In a rigorous four-step approach, we first scrutinized major databases. Second, we performed a practical and methodological screening to identify in total 115 relevant publications, mostly case studies. Third, we applied content analysis using MAXQDA. Fourth, we illustrated results and concluded upon the research gaps.
Results and discussion
We identified 33 sources of uncertainty and 24 addressing methods. Sources of uncertainties were categorized according to (i) its origin, i.e., parameter, model, and scenario uncertainty and (ii) the nature of uncertainty, i.e., aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty. The methods to address uncertainties were classified into deterministic, probabilistic, possibilistic, and other methods. With regard to sources of uncertainties, lack of data and data quality was analyzed most often. Most uncertainties having been discussed were located in the use stage. With regard to methods, sensitivity analyses were applied most widely, while more complex methods such as Bayesian models were used less frequently. Data availability and the individual expertise of LCC practitioner foremost influence the selection of methods.
Conclusions
This article complements existing research by providing a thorough systematization of uncertainties in LCC. However, an unambiguous categorization of uncertainties is difficult and overlapping occurs. Such a systemizing approach is nevertheless necessary for further analyses and levels the playing field for readers not yet familiar with the topic. Part I concludes the following: First, an investigation about which methods are best suited to address a certain type of uncertainty is still outstanding. Second, an analysis of types of uncertainty that have been insufficiently addressed in previous LCC cases is still missing. Part II will focus on these research gaps.
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All is One: Towawrd a Spirtual Whole Life Education based on an Inner Life Curriculumvan Kessel, Irene 31 August 2012 (has links)
The intent of this thesis is to understand how we as educators and learners in our Western system of education can bridge and heal the fundamental principles of a constructed divide embedded in our consciousness that continues to be reproduced in our Western academy. The primary goal is to make visible this divide that is based on the intellectualization of Western education in the absence of spiritual aspirations, thus revealing the potential of spiritual transformation within the academy and our everyday lives.
In my literature-based thesis research I explored, analyzed and discussed two bodies of literature: the historical intellectualization of Western education on the one hand, and, on the other, Eastern Philosophy with the emphasis on Higher Self Yoga, African Philosophy and North American Aboriginal Spirituality. I investigated these bodies of literature employing a research paradigm that has its foundation in a spiritual ontology and epistemology. I analyzed my findings using such methodologies as appreciative inquiry, content analysis and textual analysis, including anti-colonial and indigenous knowledges theoretical frameworks.
I found that the synthesis and integration of the inner life wisdom revealed in the three philosophies is an integral component fundamental toward a whole life vision of education, an educative vision that has the potential to serve as a catalyst to open the gates for life-enhancing change in the academy and our everyday lives.
Change implies becoming aware of our true origin, who we truly are, and what our intrinsic purpose is. Change implies becoming aware of humanity’s accelerated transition toward a higher level of spiritual planetary consciousness, a spiritual evolution as an inner quest of unity with nature, the larger human community, the universe, and the divine Source itself. Change implies whole life educational processes, inclusive of the unfoldment of inner life wisdom, the authority of the human spirit, and the sense of divinity, as useful bridging work in healing the divide in our aware consciousness and our educational institutions. Whole life change needs to be the responsibility of academic education, as well our self-responsibility of realizing ourselves as citizen of the world living within one-world consciousness. All is one.
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All is One: Towawrd a Spirtual Whole Life Education based on an Inner Life Curriculumvan Kessel, Irene 31 August 2012 (has links)
The intent of this thesis is to understand how we as educators and learners in our Western system of education can bridge and heal the fundamental principles of a constructed divide embedded in our consciousness that continues to be reproduced in our Western academy. The primary goal is to make visible this divide that is based on the intellectualization of Western education in the absence of spiritual aspirations, thus revealing the potential of spiritual transformation within the academy and our everyday lives.
In my literature-based thesis research I explored, analyzed and discussed two bodies of literature: the historical intellectualization of Western education on the one hand, and, on the other, Eastern Philosophy with the emphasis on Higher Self Yoga, African Philosophy and North American Aboriginal Spirituality. I investigated these bodies of literature employing a research paradigm that has its foundation in a spiritual ontology and epistemology. I analyzed my findings using such methodologies as appreciative inquiry, content analysis and textual analysis, including anti-colonial and indigenous knowledges theoretical frameworks.
I found that the synthesis and integration of the inner life wisdom revealed in the three philosophies is an integral component fundamental toward a whole life vision of education, an educative vision that has the potential to serve as a catalyst to open the gates for life-enhancing change in the academy and our everyday lives.
Change implies becoming aware of our true origin, who we truly are, and what our intrinsic purpose is. Change implies becoming aware of humanity’s accelerated transition toward a higher level of spiritual planetary consciousness, a spiritual evolution as an inner quest of unity with nature, the larger human community, the universe, and the divine Source itself. Change implies whole life educational processes, inclusive of the unfoldment of inner life wisdom, the authority of the human spirit, and the sense of divinity, as useful bridging work in healing the divide in our aware consciousness and our educational institutions. Whole life change needs to be the responsibility of academic education, as well our self-responsibility of realizing ourselves as citizen of the world living within one-world consciousness. All is one.
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Conséquences à long-terme d’une alimentation à base de matières premières végétales sur la régulation du métabolisme énergétique et lipidique chez la truite arc-en-ciel : focus particulier sur les effets trans-générationnels et les stades précoces / Consequences of long-term feeding trout with plant-based diets on the regulation of energy and lipid metabolism : special focus on trans-generational effects and early stagesLazzarotto, Viviana 25 February 2016 (has links)
Au cours des dernières années, l'augmentation de la production aquacole a nécessité un changement dans la composition des aliments pour poissons, pour remplacer la farine (FP) et l’huile de poisson (HP) par des sources végétales plus disponibles. Dans ce contexte, le travail de ma thèse avait pour but d'analyser les effets d’une substitution totale et concomitante de la FP et HP par des ingrédients végétaux dans les aliments distribués pendant tout le cycle de vie de la truite arc-en-ciel, de la première alimentation jusqu’à la reproduction. Ce travail a montré pour la première fois que la truite peut survivre, se développer et avoir une descendance viable, lorsqu’elle est nourrie tout au long de son cycle de vie avec un régime 100% végétal. Un tel remplacement alimentaire a entraîné des changements radicaux dans le profil en acides gras des tissus des femelles. Cependant, nous avons constaté que la truite était capable de synthétiser des acides gras polyinsaturés à longue chaîne n-3 (AGPI-LC n-3) à partir de précurseurs présents dans l'aliment, et de stocker dans les ovules une partie de ces acides gras néosynthétisés dans le foie , permettant ainsi une reproduction efficace. Nous avons également étudié les possibles effets trans-générationnels d’une alimentation 100% végétale des géniteurs, sur la survie et la croissance de la descendance et sur sa réponse à différents régimes aux stades précoces, en nous appuyant sur des analyses du transcriptome des alevins entiers. Aucun effet significatif de l’alimentation maternelle avec des régimes à base de végétaux n’a été observé sur les descendants avant leur première alimentation, à l'exception d'un poids corporel légèrement inférieur (-13%) à celui des descendants de femelles nourries avec un aliment contenant des FP et HP. En revanche, des effets significatifs de l'alimentation maternelle sur le transcriptome des alevins sont apparus après 3 semaines d'alimentation. L'histoire nutritionnelle de la mère a affecté principalement des gènes impliqués dans la croissance/contraction musculaire et dans les métabolismes énergétique et glucidique. Quelle que soit l'origine maternelle, l’alimentation des alevins avec des aliments contenant des ingrédients végétaux conduit à une régulation positive des gènes impliqués dans le métabolisme des AA/protéines et le métabolisme du cholestérol, ainsi qu’à des changements dans l'expression des gènes impliqués dans le métabolisme glucidique. Enfin, les effets à long-terme de régimes à base de matières premières végétales chez la truite arc-en-ciel ont également été étudiés chez les juvéniles (10g) et les poissons «en croissance» (250-350g), en se focalisant principalement sur l’expression des gènes dans l’intestin et le foie. Cette étude à long-terme a mis en évidence chez les juvéniles des effets subtils sur des gènes intestinaux et hépatiques (transcriptome), avec principalement une augmentation de l’expression des gènes impliqués dans les voies de synthèse des AGPI-LC et du cholestérol chez les poissons nourris avec des régimes à base de plantes. Ces changements d’expression ont été maintenus chez les poissons «en croissance». L'expression de gènes impliqués dans le catabolisme des protéines, le métabolisme des glucides et dans le transport intracellulaire a également été modifiée par les régimes à base de plantes chez les juvéniles, mais ces résultats ne sont pas entièrement confirmés chez les poissons «en croissance». L'ensemble des résultats de cette thèse fournissent des informations originales sur l'utilisation de régimes alimentaires avec des taux de remplacement élevés de FP et d’HP pendant l'ensemble du cycle de vie des poissons, y compris les reproducteurs et les stades précoces, car la majorité des études précédentes avaient concerné la phase de grossissement. Des ajustements de la formule alimentaire sont encore nécessaires pour continuer à optimiser les performances de reproduction et la croissance des poissons d’élevage. / In the last years, the increase in aquaculture production has forced a change in fish feed composition, with increasing substitution of fish meal and fish oil by more available plant sources. In this context, the present PhD work aimed at analyzing the effects of different levels of concomitant dietary replacement of fish meal and fish oil by plant ingredients during the whole life cycle of rainbow trout (from first feeding to reproduction). This work showed for the first time that rainbow trout was able to survive, grow and produce viable offsprings, when fed a totally plant-based diet throughout the whole life cycle. Such dietary replacement resulted in drastic changes in tissues fatty acid profile of broodstock females. However, we found that trout was capable to synthetize n-3 long chain- polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFA) from dietary precursors and to transfer large amounts of these fatty acids in ova, so that an efficient reproduction can occur. We also studied the potential carry over generation effects of feeding broodstock a totally plant-based diet on progeny and their response to different diets at early stages, using molecular approaches, including the study of the whole body transcriptome. Considering the effects on progeny, the present study confirmed the capability of trout to survive and grow on a plant-based diet, but with slight differences in terms of weight. While no effects of maternal dietary background were observed before first feeding, except slightly lower body weight (-13%), significant effects on the transcriptome of whole body alevins appeared after 3 weeks of feeding. These effects of maternal nutritional history were mainly related to muscle growth/contraction and carbohydrate and energy metabolism. Irrespective of the maternal origin of progeny, first feeding diets containing plant ingredients resulted in up-regulation of genes involved in AA/protein and cholesterol metabolism, as well as in changes in the expression of genes involved in carbohydrate metabolism. Finally, the effects of long-term feeding trout plant-based diets were also studied in juveniles (10g) and ongrowing fish (250-350g), mainly focusing on intestine and liver gene expression. The long term trial in juveniles highlighted subtle effects on both intestinal and hepatic gene expression (transcriptome), mainly related to LC-PUFA and cholesterol biosynthetic pathways, which were enhanced in fish fed the plant based diets. This transcriptional pattern was maintained in ongrowing fish. Genes involved in protein catabolism, carbohydrate metabolism and trafficking were also affected by plant-based diets in juveniles, but these results were not fully confirmed in ongrowing fish. Overall, the results of the present thesis allowed extending the use of diets with high replacement rates of fish meal and fish oil to the whole life cycle of fish, including broodstock and early stages. Adjustments of the feed-formula are still needed to further optimize reproductive and growth performance.
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Processus de mobilisation des élèves en formation professionnelle : le cas des étudiants de Brevet de technicien supérieur option industries agroalimentaires / Mobilization process of students for vocational training curriculumMétral, Jean-François 07 November 2013 (has links)
Cette thèse examine le processus de mobilisation pour des étudiants en formation professionnelle et ses relations avec la constitution des buts de leur activité et les caractéristiques des dispositifs et des situations de formation rencontrées. Pour cela, nous adoptons une approche par l'activité des étudiants en situation de formation afin de nous démarquer des approches de la « motivation » développées par la psychologie et des approches en termes de « rapport au savoir » développées en sociologie. Nous nous appuyons sur le cadre théorique de l'activité élaboré par Rubinstein (2007) pour développer le concept de mobilisation proposé initialement par Charlot, Bautier et Rochex (1992). Nous avons réalisé un recueil de données de type ethnographique et longitudinal auprès de trois classes d'étudiants inscrits dans une formation de Brevet de Technicien Supérieur en Agroalimentaire dans trois établissements différents. Notre analyse se déroule en trois temps : * caractérisation des environnements, dispositifs et situations de formation rencontrés par les étudiants des trois établissements ; * approche statistique de l’état de mobilisation pour les différentes situations de formation ; * monographies longitudinales concernant quatre étudiants. Nous montrons que l'état de mobilisation pour une classe de situations est préfiguré par quelques situations passées, présentes et projetées pour chaque individu. Mais cet état s'actualise en fonction des caractéristiques des situations rencontrées, dont certaines jouent un rôle important : cohérence des finalités de la situation avec la finalité professionnelle affichée par la formation ; contenus abordés en tant que savoirs outils (Douady, 1983) pour l'action en situation professionnelle ; tâches appelant à déployer des actes de création réelle (Rubinstein, 2007) ; … Les étudiants sont mobilisés pour des situations par lesquelles leur personnalité se réalise dans et par les actions déployées : elle se constitue et se donne à voir à l'individu et aux autres. Ces situations sont au fondement de la constitution de buts stables pour leur activité et d'un itinéraire de toute une vie pour l'individu. Les étudiants n’ont pas de meilleurs résultats scolaires pour les situations de formation pour lesquelles ils sont mobilisés. Les étudiants sont démobilisés lorsque leur activité est morcelée et ne parvient plus à réguler les actions au regard de leurs buts, des caractéristiques de leur personnalité et des conditions et exigences des situations. Leurs résultats scolaires sont inférieurs à leurs résultats moyens pour les situations où ils sont démobilisés. En conclusion nous proposons des développements pour la théorie de l'activité élaborée par Rubinstein et pour le cadre théorique de la didactique professionnelle. Nos résultats permettent de développer ceux présentés par Rochex dans son ouvrage « Le sens de l’expérience scolaire » (1995). Ils nous amènent à proposer des pistes de réflexion pour penser les questions de l’alternance, de l’orientation et du décrochage scolaire en formation professionnelle. / This thesis aims to highlight mobilization process of students for vocational training curriculum and its relations with development of activity goals and training situations characteristics. We adopt an ethnographical approach to follow thirty nine students enrolled in a vocational training to become food industry technicians. We use the theory of activity developed by Rubinstein (2007) as supportive framework, in order to distance ourselves from “motivation” psychological approaches. We develop the concept of mobilization process, initially proposed by Charlot, Bautier and Rochex (1992). Our analysis consists in : * a description of the three curriculum and their training situations ; * a statistical approach of mobilization conditions of students for different training situations ; * four students’ monographs. Our results show that mobilization condition of students for a specific situation depends on situations of their past, present and project life. But characteristics of current training situation update this mobilization conditions. Some of those characteristics are very important in the mobilization process: coherence between aims of the situations and professional aims of the curriculum ; knowledges that are presented as tools for professional situations ; creative tasks ;…Students are mobilized for situations where actions allow them to realize, build up and show their personality. Those situations found long lasting goals for their activity and establish continuity in their “whole life itinerary”. This does not improve their student performances. They are demobilized when situation parceled out their activity, which couldn’t coordinate any more actions with goals of activity, personality characteristics and tasks conditions. Their student performances decrease in that case. In conclusion, we propose some developments for the Rubinstein’s theory of activity and for the theoretical framework of professional didactics. We suggest lines of enquiry for professional training, vocational guidance and school dropout.
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長壽風險對保單責任準備金之影響-以增額型終身壽險為例 / The effect of longevity risk on reserves – based on increasing whole life insurance陳志岳 Unknown Date (has links)
近年隨著油價、物價上漲所導致的通貨膨脹風險,壽險業者以增額型終身壽險來吸引潛在消費者。另外,由於醫療技術的進步,使得死亡率逐年改善,因此將造成保單在設計時可能將遭受到長壽風險的影響。本篇文章的主要目的即探討長壽風險對於保單責任準備金的影響,並以增額型終身壽險作為本文主要分析標的。首先建構死亡率模型(Lee-Carter模型),用來配適並模擬死亡率,接著探討增額型終身壽險在各保單年度下之現金流量以及責任準備金的提存,進一步再引進不同的死亡率來探討其現金流量分佈情形與責任準備金之提存。本文研究結果發現,在保險公司未採用遞迴方式計算保費時,當繳費期間愈短、複利利率愈高以及投保年齡愈低時,保險公司所面臨之長壽風險愈大,其後在帶入各種不同死亡率模型,發現死亡改善率愈高,保險公司所面臨之長壽風險愈大,而保險公司在提存責任準備金時,並未考慮到死亡改善率的部分,此對保險公司的財務健全將造成隱憂,本文於此部分建議監理機關透過法規(RBC)的制訂,調整準備金提存的係數,以降低長壽風險對保險公司財務之衝擊。
關鍵字:長壽風險、死亡率模型、增額型終身壽險、保單責任準備金、增額準備金、Lee-Carter Model以及RBC制度。 / With the improvement of medical technology, the life expectancy around the world is increasing year by year during the past decade. Therefore, the increasing whole life insurance policy is popular during these years because its benefits are escalating with time and policyholders think they could gain more benefits when they live longer. Like annuity policies, the increasing whole life insurance could also suffer from the longevity risk, which may have enormous impact on the financial statements of insurers.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the impact of longevity risk on reserves, based on increasing whole life insurance policy. First, we construct Lee-Carter model to fit and simulate mortality rate and assume different mortality improvements from the 2002 Taiwan Standard Ordinary Experience Mortality Table (2002TSO) for further comparisons. And then, we construct a simple model to analyze the cash flows of the increasing whole life policies based on the mortality rates we observed.
By constructing a simple model and simulation, we find that if the insurance company does not correctly estimate longevity risk, the insurance company will lose money on the increasing whole life policies. In order to mitigate the insufficiency of life insurers for the increasing whole life policies, we try to provide some supervision suggestion from the view of the risk-based capital (RBC) requirements. We calculate the factor of insurance risk (C2) of RBC requirements because this factor represents the surplus needed to provide for excess claims over expected, both from random fluctuations and from inaccurate pricing for future levels of claims.
Keywords: longevity risk, increasing whole life insurance policy, Lee-Carter model, risk-based capital (RBC).
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Hodnocení stavebního projektu z hlediska celoživotních nákladů / Evaluation of Construction Project from aspect of Whole Life CostsFoitlová, Lucie January 2018 (has links)
The theoretical part deals at the beginning with evaluation of effectiveness of the project, as well as with the information about individual stages of the life cycle of the building, wear and tear of the buildings, lifetime of the elements and whole life costs of the building that are of particular interest to the investor. In conclusion, there are mentioned wastes and emissions. The thesis is completed by a case study of the family house where the whole life costs of the building life cycle are solved.
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