This thesis is concerned with the mathematical modelling for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemics in Australia. There are two parts to this thesis. Part I is aimed at modelling the transmission of HIV and HCV via needle sharing among injecting drug users (IDUs). The dynamical model of an epidemic through needle sharing among IDUs is derived. This model reveals the correlation between needle sharing and the epidemic prevalence among IDUs. The simulations of HIV and HCV prevalence and incidence among IDUs in Australia are made with this model. The comparison of simulated results with literature estimates shows that the modelled results are consistent with the literature estimates. The effects of needle sharing and cleaning on HIV and HCV prevalence and incidence among IDUs in Australia are evaluated. Part II is devoted to modelling the spread of HIV in the general community in Australia. A mathematical model is formulated to assess the epidemiological consequences of injecting drug use and sexual transmission in Australia. The effects of highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART) on the HIV epidemic are included. The modelled results are in broad agreement with the literature estimates and observed data. The long-term effects of HAART are also discussed.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/187814 |
| Date | January 2001 |
| Creators | Gao, Zhanhai, School of Mathematics, UNSW |
| Publisher | Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Mathematics |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Rights | Copyright Zhanhai Gao, http://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/copyright |
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